The Edmonton Oilers have a very good problem on the horizon and that problem is named Ethan Bear. He is going to need a new contract this summer and if his performances continue in the way that they are, meaning he’s a 22-minute/night defender who not only keeps his head above water but excels, the Oilers can kiss their dreams of signing an elite player come free agency.
I do not believe for one second that Bear would sign for anything less than $3.5M per season. It is true that he only has 27 games of NHL experience and we could be witnessing the highest parts of a young player’s peaks and valleys, but if I’ve learned anything watching contracts being signed recently, it’s that teams are paying for potential future performances and locking up young players early rather than previous production to which Bear has very little of.
Now, what you have to be hoping is that he signs a deal similar to that of Brandon Carlo. The Bruins got him under contract for two years at $2.85M per year this summer. That would give Edmonton a small window and it would walk Bear to his arbitration years. It would also be a very affordable contract to trade if need be or to bury if required.
Most likely what could end up happening is something similar to Damon Severson’s contract. In the summer of 2017, the Devils defender signed a six-year deal worth $25M and it was structured like this,
- Year One – $2.5M
- Year Two – $3M
- Years Three and Four – $4.675M
- Year Five – $5.05M
- Year Six 0 $5.1M
*Fun Fact* – Damon Severson and Ethan Bear are represented by the same player agent, Jason Davidson.
Ken Holland has some big decisions to make and quite soon if we’re being honest. How far do they want to go with Darnell Nurse? Bear’s been a godsend for him and the agents for both of these players know it. What happens when Adam Larsson returns? He’s exactly the kind of player you need in the playoffs, so you don’t just dump his salary. Kris Russell will get moved eventually, that’s a given.
Let’s say you’ve got Klefbom and Nurse signed long-term, what do you do with Philip Broberg, who I think will be ready after one season (if that) of AHL hockey, Dmitri Samorukov, William Lagesson, and Caleb Jones? The right side of the defense would feature Larsson and Bear signed long-term theoretically, right? Does that mean that Matt Benning is gone this year and his replacement is Evan Bouchard?
If you ask me, Jones replaces Russell for a season while Broberg develops and the Swede’s partner will be Evan Bouchard. What that means is Lagesson is probably the odd man out or at least relegated to 7th defender. That said, a Lagesson/Larsson pairing intrigues me slightly.
The worst thing the Oilers can do is shove two or three young defensemen into the lineup and ask them to learn on the job and keep the Oilers competitive. That’s what they used to do for years in some deranged attempt to re-create the dynasty days.
Holland has a great opportunity to do things right here and if he wants to, he can acquire some scoring punch on the wings with a bit of his prospect depth on D. It’s a much safer plan that blowing $10-12M a year on a winger that might be at the top of his game for another three seasons and putting your cap structure at risk. Balance folks… Balance is the key. The main players are already in place, it’s time to surround them with competence.
Tonight’s Game
The Oilers (7-1-1) are marching into Minnesota (2-6-0) a motivated bunch. Nobody likes playing a game where not one person scores. Leon and Connor are going to be on a warpath. RNH and James Neal will be firing at every opportunity. I even believe the bottom-sixers are going to be foaming at the mouth for their chances as well. It’s game on and the Wild had better buckle up.
It sounds like Mats Zuccarello might be healthy enough to re-join Minnesota’s lineup tonight. That would be a massive addition to their roster as they seem to be getting nailed with an injury bug of sorts. Victor Rask and Joel Eriksson Ek are also out. You’d like to think that their team is that much better with those three skating, but as the old saying goes, “Goaltending is only 70% of hockey unless you don’t have it, then it’s 100%.” I probably butchered that, but you get the gist.
If we’re going by previous starts, I’m thinking it’ll be Mike Smith back between the pipes for Edmonton. He was fantastic against the Jets stopping every shot on net sans the two in the shootout. As for Minny, I want to say it’ll be Devan Dubnyk but Bruce Boudreau may opt for Alex Stalock. The former Edmonton Oilers starter has a record of 1-2-0 with a GAA of 4.68 and a SV% of .867 whereas the Wild’s backup spots a 1-1-0 record and a GAA of 2.07 and a .929 SV%. I know who I’d be starting if I were the coach of Minnesota…
The first ten-game segment of the year that I predicted back on Oct.3rd has gone thusly so far,
- Vancouver (h): I predicted a loss. (LOSS) WIN 1-0-0
- Los Angeles (h): I like the Oilers chances here against their former coach. (WIN) WIN 2-0-0
- NYI (a): The Islanders are a tough squad. Skill and grit in excess. (LOSS) WIN 3-0-0
- NJ (a): This game will feature FIVE former first overall picks… Should be exciting! (WIN) WIN 4-0-0
- NYR (a): The Rags are gonna be good soon, but I like the Oilers here. (WIN) WIN 5-0-0
- Chicago (a): I’ll take Edmonton’s young superstars vs. Chicago’s aging ones. (WIN) LOSS 5-1-0
- Philadelphia (h): The Flyers are always a difficult team to beat and now they’ve got Carter Hart. (LOSS) WIN 6-1-0
- Detroit (h): Ken Holland’s first game against his old team. DET’s defense is horrid though. (WIN) WIN 7-1-0
- Winnipeg (a): I’m a huge fan of WPG’s fwd core. I’ll take the Jets here. (LOSS) S/O LOSS 7-1-1
- Minnesota (a): What are the Wild anyhow? They don’t impress me. (WIN)
I predicted a record of 6-4-0 and the Oilers have a chance to walk away from the game this evening going 8-1-1 in their first ten games. At worst they’ll have a 7-2-1 or a 7-1-2 record. Here I thought I was blue-skying my predictions…
I’ll have my predictions in a later blog, but the next ten games look like this,
- Washington (h)
- Florida (h)
- Detroit (a)
- Columbus (a)
- Pittsburgh (a)
- Arizona (h)
- St. Louis (h)
- New Jersey (h)
- Anaheim (a)
- San Jose (a)
A much much tougher road heading into November.
Three players to Watch for the Wild
- #77 Brad Hunt – What?! Yeah, you probably won’t believe this but Hunt leads the team in goal scoring AND points… How’s that for an indication that the Wild are probably going to be a lottery team this season? The former Oiler has always possessed a really nice slap shot though…
- #24 Matt Dumba – This guy is always a threat from the point be it via his shot or his physicality. At the moment he’s right in the race for the NHL’s green jacket with a whopping -10 +/-.
- #19 Luke Kunin – Kunin is the Wild’s sharpshooting 3rd line right-wing. It’s early days on his career, but if he keeps trending up, he should be a good candidate to replace Jason Zucker in Minny’s top-six someday.
Wild Lines (projected)
Jordan Greenway-Eric Staal-Kevin Fiala
Zach Parise-Mikko Koivu-Jason Zucker
Gerald Mayhew-Ryan Donato-Luke Kunin
Marcus Foligno-Gabriel Dumont-Ryan Hartman
Ryan Suter-Jared Spurgeon
Jonas Brodin-Matt Dumba
Nick Seeler-Brad Hunt
Devan Dubnyk
Alex Stalock
As discussed above, Mats Zuccarello could be given the green light and the speculation is that Gabriel Dumont would come out. That said, Kevin Fiala has already been a healthy scratch this year, so it wouldn’t shock me if he was the one that actually sat in favor of Minnesota’s big free agent signing.
Three Players to Watch for the Oilers
- Patrick Russell – He’s coming off of two really good performances and now the scoring opportunities are arriving. His line was quietly very effective in the game versus Winnipeg and I believe they’ll be back at it again against a very weak Minnesota team.
- Connor McDavid – He can’t be happy coming away from his last two appearances pointless. He could be tired or maybe the adrenaline of the early season is wearing off. I think he’ll be very motivated to return to the summit of the NHL’s scoring race. As one of my favorite comedians, Russell Peters, is famous for saying, “Somebody gonna get a hurt REAL BAD.”
- Sam Gagner – There was a time when Samwise was the Oilers 1st line center, now he’s battling just to stay out of the team’s AHL lineup. Look, the bottom line on Gagner is that he’s still got the hands and the IQ/vision, but the wheels just aren’t there anymore. Playing Minnesota might not expose his lack of speed and quickness though. I truly hope he does, but I’m just not betting the farm that he’ll be the spark that ignites the Oilers bottom-six.
Oilers Lines (projected)
Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian
James Neal-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Alex Chiasson
Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Josh Archibald
Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell
Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear
Oscar Klefbom-Kris Russell
Brandon Manning-Matt Benning
Mikko Koskinen
Mike Smith
There’s some speculation that William Lagesson might draw in for Manning and also Sam Gagner might replace an ailing Josh Archibald who blocked a shot with his foot in the last game.
I predicted a win way back at the beginning of the month and I’m not going to deviate from that. Let’s Go Oilers!
