For the first time in the 2019/20 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers are on the outside looking in on a playoff spot. They’ve been passed by the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Las Vegas Golden Knights, and Arizona Coyotes and now sit at 5th in the Pacific Division. Why is that and are we 100% sure that it means the Oilers will be in a position to win another draft lottery?
The underlying numbers have been poor all year and the cynics within the Oilers fanbase will be rejoicing in the fact that “they’ve been saying it all along” but the fact of the matter is, nobody could’ve predicted Edmonton’s best players would begin to shit the bed. Some analysts are saying that if Connor McDavid wasn’t carrying the offensive load for Edmonton that they’d be competing with the Red Wings for last place, I think that’s predicated on some fantasy where McDavid isn’t an Oiler maybe, I don’t know. Those kinds of claims don’t take the conversation anywhere for me. Are we saying if you take a team’s best player away out of their lineup that that team might struggle in the area where that player excels? Not exactly mind-blowing analysis.
What we should be asking is why Leon Draisaitl can’t stop racking up minuses or why in the world is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins producing at an AHL player’s rate? What happened to the Nurse/Bear pairing all of a sudden and what’s the reason for Oscar Klefbom’s race to the green jacket?
From 12/1/2019 to today, the Oilers have five forwards (out of fourteen) with negative metrics in the category of expected goals for %,
- Jujhar Khaira (-6.21)
- Zack Kassian (-2.88)
- Leon Draisaitl (-17.02)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (-3.82)
- Connor McDavid (-3.48)
Every other forward on the Edmonton is in the plus. So, when those players have been on the ice, it’s been tilted the other way.
When a team’s best players can’t keep the team afloat, get your life jackets out folks.
Now, what’s funny is that none of the analysts I’ve read are mentioning PDO, or puck luck basically. Draisaitl has a PDO of .881 and Oscar Klefbom’s is .899. That is ridiculous and at some point will come back to normal. James Neal has a .910, RNH’s is .922, McDavid’s sits at .955… Edmonton’s best player in that category is “Dwight” Joakim Nygard with a 1.042.
Now, knowing these things, how does that change our outlook on the season? I still feel there’s a playoff club here and that they’re going through a tough spell. Do Edmonton’s stars need to buck up defensively? Yes. 100% and not because they’re slacking, but because it would help the team win. Would I like to see the Oilers make some changes to their roster? I’m always down for some chaos in that regard…
Changes Are Coming
Markus Granlund and Brandon Manning are on their way to Bakersfield while Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson are in Edmonton.
If you’ve had your ear to the ground you could probably have seen this coming. Changes after Christmas is what I was told and here we are today with two more notable ones. Now, what these two moves tell me is that Ken Holland is still grinding away looking for some deals to improve the club externally but feels the right thing to do is to offer an opportunity to those within his club first.
Yamamoto is going to bring tenacity, quickness, and as I’ve been saying for a long time now, an ability to draw penalties. He does that very well. The other thing he does is he thrives in the trenches and has no fear. He looks a bit thicker this year and I’m hoping that contributes to him being able to stay healthy during this latest stint in Edmonton. I don’t believe he would’ve been called up had Josh Archibald not blocked that shot with his knee against Calgary though.
It’s my belief that the Oilers are discussing trades with multiple teams and William Lagesson, as well as Kris Russell’s name, has come up in said discussions. Plainly put, somebody is getting showcased here. “Wild Bill” is ready to take the next step and he’s spent a lot of time playing alongside Caleb Jones during their time in Bakersfield (AHL) together. It makes sense that they’d play together again in the future.
Lagesson is a fine player. He’s like a Mattias Ekholm lite. Big, tough, can make a pass, skates well, and can make a play on offense if needed… Great head of lettuce too.
I see a lot of fans saying that it should be Tyler Benson that should’ve been called up and I get that sentiment. He’s a local lad and a great story, but not only that, he’s the straw that’s been stirring the drink down in Bakersfield. I watched him this weekend and his skating has improved marginally. I think he might end up having boots like Jordan Eberle once he makes the show. That said, he plays LW and the Oilers don’t require a left-winger at the moment. Should they finally take the plunge and move JJ Khaira this year though, that’s when you’ll probably see Benson get called up.
If you’re not satisfied with these moves, I don’t imagine any transaction is going to satiate your appetite. Ken Holland is 6 months into the job and stated at his introduction presser that he’s going to bring stability to the club and he’s going to practice drafting and developing players. He wants to build a team that can make the playoffs every year, not just once every three or four years.
I know it’s hard to be patient, but that’s the way it has to be. If you still can’t accept that, could you maybe take solace in the fact that the Oilers are right in the mix for a playoff spot?
Three Players to Watch for the Rangers
- #16 Ryan Strome – The former Oiler has seven points in his last five games whilst centering Panarin. It’d only make sense if he continues to pile up the points against his old club since that seems to be what every former Oiler does.
- #9 Artemi Panarin – 17pts in his last ten games and is always a threat to score when playing Edmonton. The Breadman is as electrifying as it’s going to get on the Rangers and Edmonton’s defense will have their work cut out for them.
- #89 Pavel Buchnevich – In the back of my mind I feel like this is the player that Edmonton might be angling for in a Jesse Puljujarvi trade. This Russian has been in and out of David Quinn’s doghouse this year and he just the right guy to flank one of Edmonton’s big centers. He’s a big-bodied winger with outstanding hands, a laser of a wrist shot, powerful strides and strong on the boards. His concentration can waver and I reckon that’s what gets him in trouble with coaches.
#NYR warmups here in Toronto:
Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Panarin-Strome-Fast
Howden-Chytil-Kakko
Haley-McKegg-Fogarty
Skjei-Trouba
Staal-DeAngelo
Lindgren-Fox
Georgiev— Brett Cyrgalis (@BrettCyrgalis) December 28, 2019
Three Players To Watch for the Oilers
- #56 Kailer Yamamoto – Game one of the 2019/20 season for Yamo. I’ll really be looking forward to watching how his game differs at this level compared to what I’ve seen from him in the AHL.
- #10 Joakim Nygard – Four points in his last ten. He’s starting to get his feet back under him and his speed is drawing penalties.
- #74 Ethan Bear – If Coach Tippett keeps his lines from last practise, Bear is up with Klefbom on the top pairing and he’ll be seeing a lot of New York’s best players. Tanks like Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad will offer formidable challenges to the rookie defender.
Neal-McDavid-Kassian
Khaira-RNH-Gagner
Nygard-Draisaitl-Chiasson
Sheahan-Haas-P Russell
(Archibald not on ice)Klefbom-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Nurse-K Russell
Benning
(Rotating all 7 D)Koskinen
Smith— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) December 28, 2019
