Okay, the Edmonton Oilers are tied for second place in the Pacific with Vegas and Calgary but luckily they’ve got 27 regulation/overtime wins which is the tiebreaker here. The Golden Knights have 25, the Flames and the Arizona Coyotes have 23. That bodes well for Edmonton in case this race goes right down to the wire.
Tonight, though, the surging Chicago Blackhawks will be visiting and they’re playing as well as the Oilers are recently. At 6-2-2, this is a team that could seriously throw a wrench into the Oilers’ playoff cogs as Arizona and Vegas are playing as well. Should they win and Edmonton loses in regulation, they’ll both leapfrog the Oilers.
With that in mind, I feel like tonight’s game is going to be very entertaining. There’s a metric ton of speed and skill on display tonight and some grit to go with it. Of course, that metric ton might be reduced if Connor McDavid is ruled out. Chicago has been bossing the faceoff dot this year, so Edmonton’s centers had better be on their games there. This one might come down to whose goalie plays better and I think it’ll be Robin Lehner vs. Mike Smith.
A Trio of Oilers Who’ll Be Moving On This Summer
I believe by the start of the 2020/21 NHL season, the Edmonton Oilers’ roster will have quite a few new faces. The trade chatter will not stop regarding Adam Larsson, they need to rid themselves of the Kris Russell contract, and sources tell me it sounds like Joakim Nygard hasn’t impressed enough to have the Oilers consider re-signing him.
I want to focus in on the Iron Swede for a moment though.
I can see why some are down on Larsson. He’s not a puck mover like Klefbom or Bear or even players coming up the pipeline like Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg, but the fact remains, he’s one of the league’s top defensive defenders 5×5 and he’s certainly an integral part of Edmonton’s top-five penalty kill.
I checked some of his advanced analytics on Natural Stat Trick and I found that he’s a top-50 defender in 6/8 “against/60” categories 5×5 (relative) amongst defenders with 500 minutes or more this season.
- High danger goals against (48th/-0.49)
- High danger chances against (43rd/-1.06)
- Expected goals against (44th/-0.18)
- Goals against (35th/-0.54)
- Shots against (40th/-2.15)
- Fenwick against (40th/-2.3)
Only his Corsi against (116th/+1.66) and scoring chances against (89th/+.42) did he find himself out of the top-50 this season. But that’s just one season and there are some online that are saying he hasn’t been up to par for a couple of seasons now.
These are where he sits in the same categories but I’ve added last season’s numbers as well and adjusted the list of players to include all defenders who played 2000 minutes or more in that time frame.
- High danger goals against (50th/-0.8)
- High danger chances against (17th/-0.59)
- Scoring chances against (32nd/-0.61)
- Expected goals against (39th/0)
- Goals against (55th/+0.23)
- Shots against (22nd/-0.7)
- Fenwick against (15th/-1.57)
- Corsi against (20th/-1.96)
I like the guy. He plays a hard game and we’ll see his value in the playoffs. If you take him out of the lineup, a top-pairing defender who plays 20 HARD minutes or more a night, you’ll be left with a massive hole until one of the kids is ready. In addition to that, he’s 27 years old (hitting his prime some might say) and his cap hit is only $4.16M. So it’s not like he’s breaking the bank for the kind of TOI and quality of competition he sees.
Another interesting stat I’ll leave you with, Larsson’s PDO the last two years? 96.7/96.8… Trade him now and you’ll regret it.
Three Players to Watch for the Blackhawks
- #12 Alex Debrincat – When you’ve got a 40-goal scorer on your 3rd line, that’s the definition of a good problem. Connor McDavid’s old linemate cannot be left alone with time and space near the net or else Edmonton’s five skaters are bound to be dash one. His production is down this year (13g in 55gp) but he’s still a dangerous player.
- #77 Kirby Dach – The 3rd overall pick behind Jack Hughes (NJ) and Kaapo Kakko (NYR) is now centering Brandon Saad and Patrick Kane. Talk about being put in a place to succeed… My-lanta! Five points in his last five games for the local lad.
- #8 Dominik Kubalik – The Czech winger is up with Jonathan Toews and Drake Caggiula on Chicago’s 1st line and has been scoring quite well this year. Twenty-two goals on the season have him second on the roster in scoring behind Kane.
#Blackhawks lineup prior to puckdrop in Winnipeg:
Kubalik-Toews-Caggiula
Saad-Dach-Kane
DeBrincat-Kampf-Strome
Smith-Carpenter-HighmoreKeith-Gustafsson
Seeler-Murphy
Koekkoek-MaattaCrawford pic.twitter.com/rR91Li8Yo2
— Eric Lear (@EricLear312) February 9, 2020
Three Players to Watch for the Oilers
- #15 Josh Archibald – What are the odds that we see Archie and ex-Oiler Drake Caggiula have a meeting of the minds at some point in this one? Both are little guys with big hearts who love to muck it up.
- #29 Leon Draisaitl – If dailyfaceoff.com is right, Draisaitl’s blitzkrieg on the NHL continues as he has eight points in his last five games. His line going up against the Patrick Kane line will be good entertainment tonight if it happens as such. Do you think he can win the Art Ross this year?
- #44 Zack Kassian – I’m not sure if he’s hurt or mentally exhausted from those two Battle of Alberta games or if Coach Tippett is letting him know that his performances have been subpar since he signed his extension with the club, but I feel like he’s going to break out here. He looks out of place on other lines and no disrespect to Sam Gagner and Alex Chiasson, Connor looks a bit out of place without his wingman…
I’m not sure on the lines so far just because Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom, and James Neal did lace up the skates for practice yesterday. It sounds like the Oilers captain and no.1 defenceman could be back in the lineup but according to Jason Gregor, Neal might’ve reaggravated his ankle. So if you’re the type that has to know who’s playing, I suggest keeping an eye on the Twitter feeds of Jack Michaels, Bob Stauffer, Ryan Rishaug, and/or Reid Wilkins.
The Next Ten Games (51-60)
- vs. St. Louis Blues (31-12-8) – I’m not 100% sold that the Oilers will be focused on this game seeing as they play Calgary the next night. They have played well against the league’s best this season at times though. Can McDavid and Draisaitl beat the Blues in this one as they did at the All-Star game? (WIN) WIN
- @ Calgary Flames (27-19-6) – If you thought last night’s game was fun with all the fights and cheap shots, this game is going to be bonkers. It always seems to be in Calgary. Losing three times to the Flames and that post-game celly by Rittich will be eating away at the Oilers. They’ll be doing their damnedest to bring home the two points. (WIN) WIN
- @ Arizona Coyotes (26-21-5) – The Oilers put up a touchdown on the Coyotes right before their bye-week and I don’t imagine that sat well with Taylor Hall and co. That said, they’re on a bit of a slump in their last ten (4-5-1) and Edmonton is flying high as of today (6-2-2). On the other hand, just when the opportunity presents itself to the Oilers they usually take the night off. (LOSS) LOSS
- vs. San Jose Sharks (22-26-4) – Man, this Sharks team is bad. With Vlasic, Karlsson, and Burns on the back-end no less… Can you believe the Golden Knights fired Gerard Gallant to hire San Jose’s old coach? I think this will be a scheduled win for McDavid’s boys. Watch out for shenanigans from Evander Kane and Timo Meier. (WIN) LOSS
- vs. Nashville Predators (23-19-7) – Since the Preds hired NJ’s old coach, they haven’t been scoring much and that’s not a good sign when you go into Edmonton. Couple that with Pekka Rinne’s game falling right off of a cliff and the Oilers should be able to walk away with two points. (WIN) WIN
- vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24-21-6) – The Hawks are coming on as of late and I think they could pull this one off in Edmonton. Maybe Drake Caggiula does the ex-Oiler thing and scores. (LOSS)
- @ Tampa Bay Lightning (30-15-5) – This will be a fine test for the Oilers. Tampa has found their stride at the right time and are looking very dominant. Might we see another ex-Oiler in Pat Maroon score or drop the flippers? I expect McDavid to be flying in this one. (LOSS)
- @ Florida Panthers (28-16-5) – This match-up is going to be a fun one. The Panthers have some really fun players to watch like Huberdeau, Barkov, and the very underrated Vincent Trochek. Which Sergei Bobrovsky might we see if he gets the call though? (WIN)
- @ Carolina Hurricanes (29-18-3) – It’s hard not to like what they’ve built in Carolina. Andrei Svechnikov is already a scoring phenom at 19-years-old and it’s hard to overlook the wonder Finns (Aho/Teravainen), right? How will this team be sans Dougie Hamilton though? Can the Oilers sweep back-to-backs again? (WIN)
- vs. Boston Bruins (29-10-12) – Edmonton goes from one team who doesn’t lose in OT to a team that seemingly only loses in OT. The Oilers gave the Bs a pretty sound beating last time they played and we’re close to the trade deadline here so I’m not sure what the rosters will look like. I like Boston for this one though. (LOSS)
(Standings as of January 20th, 2020)
