Yesterday, the best player in the NHL, Leon Draisaitl, was named as one of the three Hart Trophy finalists along with the Rangers’ Artemi Panarin and Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon. Great news but expected news nonetheless.
Now we can expect to hear the analytics community really ramp things up in support of Artemi Panarin as this year’s winner. The basis of their argument to really simplify it is that the best player in the NHL should not only be great offensively but defensively as well and to that, I ask that community, how many minutes did Panarin play on the penalty kill this year? Because that is really a defining factor in determining who is simply a one-way player and who is considered a two-way one.
Here’s the answer,
5:03 (source)
How many did Leon Draisaitl play? 69:04…
Geez, it doesn’t look like Artemi’s coach trusted him enough on the defensive side of the game to put him in the most defensively challenging scenarios. Well, maybe it was because he was bloody trash on the PK as indicated by his -7.92 GA/60 (rel) and -8 xGA/60 (rel) during that time…
Sure, Leon might be a minus player at all strengths but if I recall correctly, isn’t he +5 at 5×5? My math could be off mind you.
Look, here’s the deal. Since 2005 only three players have won the Hart without having
- A 10+ difference in goals
- A 10+ difference in assists
- A 10+ difference in total points
between the leader and the player in second place in these categories.
Those three players were Taylor Hall (2018), Corey Perry (2011), and Sidney Crosby (2007)
So Leon has a 15 point lead on Panarin and a 17 point lead on MacKinnon, a 16 goal lead on Panarin and a 13 goal lead on MacKinnon, and only a 4 assist lead on Panarin and a 9 assist lead on MacKinnon.
**Mini Rant Alert**
But some are happy to simply say Draisaitl’s a -7 and throw the rest of the context out. I mean, for Pete’s sake, Panarin needed a GD pandemic to take place for the Rangers to even be in a potential playoff spot and for him to be considered for the trophy. It’s not like Shesterkin didn’t come in and save their butts from being a lottery team… Similar to when the Devils’ backup goalie, Keith Kincaid I think his name is, did his best Marty Brodeur impression and got NJ into the playoffs (barely) and Hall winning the Hart as a result even though McDavid had ten more points than him.
Then there are guys like Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty, who know +/- is a BS stat to use in this argument, but still use it! It’s dumb and everybody knows it unless they need to use it to support their side of an already failed argument…
If Leon doesn’t win it and Panarin does, it won’t be because the German had a dash seven on his stat line… Now, if MacKinnon wins it, I won’t be too hard done by there.
**Fin**
Spector and Stauffer on Broberg
Yesterday morning Sportsnet’s Mark Spector and host of Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer, went over how good Philip Broberg has looked at camp and why Spector penned an article detailing how he thought Broberg has passed Evan Bouchard on the Oilers depth chart.
If you want to listen to it, I’ll put up the audio at the very bottom of the page.
MS: a lot of fans who are fans of Evan Bouchard thought it was crazy to say that Broberg, after a week of camp, has passed him (Bouchard) by on the Oilers depth chart. I guess we should define depth chart, are we talking about going into these playoffs? Are we talking about the big list behind Ken Holland’s desk in his office? But I’ll tell you one thing, right now, at this camp, for these playoffs, Philip Broberg is closer to playing in an NHL game, in my opinion than is Evan Bouchard.
Evan Bouchard skated this morning and they put him in the ‘B’ group with Tyler Benson and Marody and Broberg is getting time on the ice with Klefbom. I’m not saying he’s taking Larsson’s job, that’s not what I’m saying, but he is in a position to be a player here in these playoffs. He’s still no. 8, let’s say the 8th guy but in my opinion, he’s passed Bouchard and he’s passed Lagesson.
BS: And you know his teammates know it. They’re watching what’s going on because what’s the old saying Spec? Who are always the first to know?
MS: The players know, right? When they were all hootin’ and hollerin’ the other day when he made that play, they were watching and they know. The players know, they know, and you can’t fool the players. They’re very impressed with what this kid’s doing.
BS: Mark, this might sound stupid to some of the listeners but some defensemen aren’t actually that fast in terms of when they skate forward. They’re so good skating backward and they’ve got great lateral movement and that sort of thing but they’re not always super explosive at skating forward. This guy EXPLODES on you and it’s the ranginess.
I think Scott Wheeler from the Athletic compared Broberg to John Klingberg, I don’t see that because Klingberg is really an elite offensive defenseman that can really walk the line. When I think of Broberg I think more of an upgraded Noah Hanifin. Like Hanifin can really skate too but hasn’t reached the offensive potential some people thought when he was a top-5 pick. Maybe there’s a chance that could happen with Broberg?
MS: That’s what we don’t know. Young players never ascend in a straight line, right Bob? It’s a bit of a mountainous graph as a player gets better, takes a step back, gets better. So what do we know about Broberg? Well, we saw him at the Hlinka two years ago, his stride stood right out. I mean of all the guys at that tournament, there’s one guy I left that tournament thinking, “Whoa man! Who’s number four for Sweden? Can number four ever skate?!” and you watch him out here and he just has a superior superior stride. He’s an NHL skater right now.
So for a defenseman, defensemen that can skate are defensemen that are going to play a long time and this kid can really skate. Where will the offense go, Bob? Well, we saw him blitz around Russell on that rush you talked about, uh, how’s his shot going to be? I haven’t really had a chance to see him unload much. We know Bouchard has an excellent shot from the right point. We’ll see all that stuff, the kid’s 19! You think of Leon Draisaitl when he was 19 and how he looks today. So I don’t know where he’s going to go, I just know that what I see so far has NHL defenseman written all over it.
BS: Well, it’s impacted how key people think based on the quotes. I mean we ran Dave Tippett’s stuff and he’s like, “We could play him at left defense, we could play him at right defense, we could put him at left-wing, we could put him at right-wing, we could put him at center.” it’s like just the way he was talking, that’s the head coach talking and he’s a guy that’s not overly effusive in his praise at times for young players, right? But that’s how good Broberg has been.
He’s a transporter and Bouchard is a transitioner and ya know what? There’s room for both long-term in the top-four and if these guys both, I’m not even saying these guys are going to be top-two, I’m just saying if you have four legitimate top-four defensemen, you can live with that. And the Oilers have got Ethan Bear, who’s looked very good, Mark. They got Klefbom and they’ve got Nurse. Those guys are still signed long-term. So you add these two guys into the mix, not including Larsson because they’re going to have to re-up him here after another year, but they’ve got the makings of a pretty good defense, Mark.
BLH’s Comments: A player is ready when a player is ready. Ask any person in professional hockey. he could be 18-years-old or he could be 27. In a league where skating is of the utmost importance, Broberg already shines. My concern is that if he’s going to be screaming down the wing and cutting to the middle, how long until he gets his bell rung or something else happens to him?
By 2020/21, the Oilers defense could look like this,
Klefbom/Larsson
Nurse/Bear
Broberg/Bouchard
Jones
Puck Racism
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