Even though the Edmonton Oilers (1-1-0) have had Montreal’s number in recent years, I am going to officially forecast a tough night ahead for McDavid’s Men as they take on the rested Canadiens (0-0-1) this evening.
I believe the Canadiens will make the playoffs this year and that prediction is based on the ridiculous depth they possess at forward. So much that they have veteran NHL forwards Michael Frolik and Corey Perry on their taxi squad joining former full-time blueliner Victor Mete, whose job has been taken by none other than Brett Kulak… What?
Montreal has three lines of players who can impact the game on the scoreboard and their fourth line is Grind City with Artturi Lehkonen, Paul Byron, and Jake Evans. As much as I love Josh Archibald, Kyle Turris, and Jesse Puljujarvi, even the Canadiens’ third line of Tyler Toffoli, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Joel Armia will be a big handful for Edmonton if they’re matching lines.
But for fun, let’s say they do and each line saws their counter-partner off, they need to find a way to beat the best goalie in Canada (maybe the world), Carey Price.
But here’s the thing and quite possibly Edmonton’s saving grace,
“Despite the Oilers having the fewest wins in the NHL since 2009, they have owned Price. He is 3-8-1 in his career against Edmonton with a .859Sv% and 3.70 GAA. Some stats are inexplicable and this is one of them. His career Sv% is .917 with a 2.49 GAA, yet the Oilers have lit him up. He had a .960SV% in a win on March 12th, 2017, and a .906Sv% in a win on March 10th, 2009, but in his other ten starts he’s posted a .889Sv% or lower.” (source)
Has anybody considered this scenario? Would Claude Julien choose to play Jake Allen, who is 7-6-1 with a .910 sv% and a 2.45 GAA against the Oilers in the first game, and Price in the second?
Another factor in Edmonton’s favor might be that the Habs’ defense is weaker on the right-side with Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, and Joel Edmundson. This is where you hope that Zack Kassian, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto have really good games because the left-wingers are going to get pounded by Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, and the soon-to-be-mentioned Russian rookie, Alexander Romanov.
What I’m here for is Darnell Nurse vs. Josh Anderson though. That is a heavyweight battle right there and it would be awesome if these two decided to have themselves a game tonight and really turn up the heat on each other.
After watching those two tilts, I’m thinking that an Anderson/Nurse scrap needs to happen.
Here are three players that I think you should keep an eye on for the Canadiens tonight,
- #17 Josh Anderson (RW): The hulking winger has had a good start to the year with two goals the other night versus Toronto. When healthy, he’s a difference-maker that makes life very difficult for opposing wingers and dmen on his side of the ice not to mention the goaltenders he tends to spend a lot of time near.
- #24 Phillip Danault (C): I suspect the Habs’ best defensive center will be matched up against Connor McDavid and to that I say, good luck. That said, if there’s one player on Montreal that should be able to slow McDavid up even the slightest bit, it’s this future Selke Trophy winner.
- #27 Alexander Romanov (D): The new kid on the block is a more skilled better-skating version of former Canadien, Alexei Emelin. He hits like a freight train, but he is an excellent skater and puck mover. He’ll be on Montreal’s 2nd-pairing before the season is out.
For Montreal to have success they’re going to need to keep the middle of the ice clogged up and not allow Leon or Connor any skating space through the neutral zone. Conversely, we’ve seen Mikko Koskinen struggle with redirections and he hates when players get in his grill despite being taller than everyone else in the league aside from Zdeno Chara. If they forecheck hard on Edmonton’s puck-movers and make it difficult for them to get the puck to their star forwards, I believe that would help them achieve some success as well.
Another thing that usually works for the opposing team when they visit Edmonton is to play any ex-Oilers a lot as they tend to put up some points against the Oilers. Case in point, Jeff Petry, who had four points in two games last season.
With regards to the home team, I’ll be watching out for these three individuals,
- #29 Leon Draisaitl (C): Edmonton’s leading scorer with five assists only has two shots on net so far… He put up four points against Montreal last season in a pair of games so we know he likes to score on these guys. Plus, he’s not going to have to worry about facing Phillip Danault most likely.
- #6 Adam Larsson (D): Game one was one to forget and game two was marginally better. In game three, The Iron Swede needs to really have a good game because Montreal’s wingers are very skilled and slippery. He needs to bury someone, like really make them a part of the advertising on the boards and get that blood flowing.
- #56 Kailer Yamamoto (RW): Yamo has carried on this season just as he left off from last. He’s constantly in the guys of the game and he’s playing the role of diminutive disruptor. It’ll be interesting to see how he stacks up against a similar player in Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher.
I’m not going to say that Connor McDavid won’t be able to carry the Oilers on his back for 56 games this year because he probably could, but I don’t necessarily think that is a solid gameplan for long-term success. Edmonton should however get him on the ice as much as possible and make sure he’s got the puck on the move because Montreal’s defence isn’t all that mobile and can be caught on their heels.
The big thing will be to bring down that average number of shots against. 35 in the first game and 40 in the second is no way to ensure any sort of success when your team isn’t employing Martin Brodeur or Dominik Hasek.
The Oilers’ defence will need to clear the track so Mikko Koskinen can see the shots that do get through as well as hit Montreal on the counter as often as possible.
Don’t underestimate the Canadiens’ kids either. Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are very talented and giving them as hard a time as possible physically should be part of the approach to nullifying their impact on the game.
I don’t know who will be in the lineup on the Oilers’ left side of their defence aside from Nurse, but Gallagher, Anderson, Joel Armia, and Byron are very hard checkers, so those who are tasked with playing that side of the ice for Edmonton had better be prepared to move that puck at the quickest rate possible.
I’m going to say Montreal wins this one but not without casualties.
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