Hello, Heroes. It’s great to be back.
Let’s not waste any time and jump right into it with my updated top-20 draft rankings for the month of January.
1 Alexis Lafreniere
2 Anton Lundell
3 Quinton Byfield
4 Lucas Raymond
5 Yaroslav Askarov
6 Tim Stutzle
7 Noel Gunler
8 Alexander Holtz
9 Jamie Drysdale
10 Marco Rossi
11 Cole Perfetti
12 Dylan Holloway
13 Kasper Simontaival
14 Jan Mysak
15 Zion Nybeck
16 Jeremie Poirier
17 Justin Sourdif
18 Connor Zary
19 Justin Barron
20 Jaromir Pytlik
I’ll have my official mid-season top-100 available during the All-Star break but expect this top-20 to remain intact. Additionally, I’ll release my first mock draft (only the lottery picks) which will include a simulation for the top-3 spots.
Mavrik Bourque?
BLH: I’d read over at Lowetide’s blog that this Bourque kid was someone to keep an eye on for the Oilers and to be honest, I had only seen his name in the rankings but not really heard or read anything on the guy. So I asked Keith here to give me a little write-up on him so that I could get more of an understanding of the player as he’ll most likely be in the range that Edmonton will be selecting in and I know that they’ll be aiming for a forward with some offense to his game.
Bourque, in June, will likely slot into the 15–30th-overall bracket which speaks both to how deep this class is and how he’s perceived within it. Where he succeeds is below the dots, jumping up and finishing on a rebound or finding an open shooting lane for a one-timer. He doesn’t have the hardest or most accurate shot but his compete level is elite, always capitalizing on his opportunities. Bourque’s skating is probably the area he should address most, as he’s not a speedster and sometimes looks like he’s got two left feet. But, as I mentioned before, he competes and disguises his warts because of it.
Bourque leads the QMJHL’s Shawinigan Cataractes in points with 53 (23Gs|30As) in 40 GP, which is 15 more points than the second-best point producer on the team, Xavier Bourgault. On a stacked roster, featuring: Vasili Ponomaryov, Valentin Nussbaumer, and Kirill Nizhnikov (to name a few), Bourque running away with the team’s scoring title could certainly increase his draft stock.
2020 NHL Draft Mailbag
https://twitter.com/marcvollebekk/status/1216773616869806080
There are always a handful of solid prospects that go undrafted, each year, and such was the case in 2019. Kristian Tanus likely hears his name called, this June, maybe even as early as the second-round (somewhat like Samuel Fagemo, last year). He’ll likely be joined in that conversation by Oleg Zaitsev (WHL – Red Deer Rebels) and Ilya Mironov (MHL – Yaroslavl), but who I’m keeping a close eye on is Mironov’s teammate at Yaroslavl, Daniil Gutik. Already up to nearly a PPG in 34 MHL GP, Gutik is a fantastic puck-handler whose deceptive hands make dangles and toe-drags look like child’s play. His size is desirable at 6’3” – 176 lbs., but he could stand to improve his two-way game. Not the fastest skater either, but his hands help create space that his feet don’t. All-in-all, still a prospect in need of some molding but has the primary tools that scouts are looking for in an 18-year-old. …To that last point, Gutik has a late-August birthday meaning he’ll still be 18 if he’s selected, in June.
Which Swede will be selected first, and at what number?
— Marcus Andersson (@Mac_Swede) January 13, 2020
I can’t see any other scenario than Lucas Raymond being the first Swedish-born prospect drafted, this year. I’ll circle back to the second part of your question in a second, but one point I want to make first is rankings are all subjective. Some people see Alexander Holtz as the best Swede available this year, and his shot certainly makes a case. Yet, I feel as though it’s Noel Gunler who is the second-best Swede available due to a more well-rounded style of play. He’s gritty and has real finishing abilities, which is what NHL teams claim they want. I’ve seen Gunler’s name appear all over various draft boards, some thinking he’s a top-10 prospect while others claim he’s lucky to be drafted in the first-round. Between the three, Raymond is 1, Holtz is 2, but Gunler is 1A – meaning he supersedes Holtz.
Raymond is a really in a league of his own and should be drafted with the 3rd-overall pick but if he slides further than that it won’t be outside the top-5.
Oilers Draft Talk
And finally, what would a post of Beer League Heroes be without some Oilers talk? As I mentioned above, my next post will feature a mock draft lottery and based on Edmonton’s current standings they might either be featured in that article to jump up a few points to a playoff position.
Sitting in the middle of the standings, Edmonton has a few options that may fall out of the top-10 who shouldn’t have. Gunler could be available, even Marco Rossi if size bias plays a factor, but, if he’s still on the board, I could see Dylan Holloway becoming the newest member of the Oiler family. Already playing in the NCAA for the competitive U. of Wisconsin, Holloway has fit in very quickly against much older, more physical, competition in what would otherwise be his senior year of high school.
He battles well in the corners and isn’t afraid to attack the puck when it sails into the dirty areas of the ice. Holloway currently leads the team in PIMS, with 41, but that’s largely due to him adjusting to the older, more physically taxing, NCAA. His inside-out versatility as forward would provide Edmonton with some nice options while setting the line-up and could help bring stability to their top-6.
Anyways, that’s it for me. Until next time… Cheers!
BLH: Not to shit on Keith’s wonderful prognosis here, but I’m not sure Holloway will be around when Edmonton is picking unless the wheels completely fall off the bus down the stretch here. It’d be nice though, wouldn’t it. A guy with this combination of size, skill, and sandpaper… Very nice!
My feeling is that they might opt for someone like Hendrix Lapierre or the aforementioned Mavrik Bourque, but to buy them some more time for development they could go Russian with Snipers Alexander Pashin (Tolpar, MHL) or Vitali Ponomaryov (Shawinigan, QMJHL) as easily. I will say to keep an eye out for Jack Quinn (Ottawa, OHL) too though. The first two names there are playmakers, but the latter three will take you to Snipe City.
