This week’s 31 Thoughts podcast was an Edmonton Oilers-Themed one and I’m going to try and transcribe the best parts of it for you here with my comments. This could be a long read, so you might want to grab a coffee, tea, beer, two-four of your favorite hard alcohol and buckle up!
EF=Elliotte Friedman
JM=Jeff Marek
Part one is here. They talk about the timing and why Peter Chiarelli had to be fired. They also speak to analytics more so in that segment.
Here’s part two!
Can One Happen Without the Other?
JM: Work with me on something. It seems like two different streams were running at the same time in that press conference. One, Bob Nicholson was clear that they’re not letting go of assets… But We’re going to get better. Can one happen without the other? Can they get better without moving some type of asset? You can always pick around the edges and the crust but if you’re going to do something, don’t you need to move one or two of those assets?
EF: They made it very clear they’re not interested in rebuilding and you’re not changing the coach. He’s for the rest of the year. Okay, so what are we talking about here?
JM: Is there a magic wand you can wave over everybody to make them play better?
EF: They said, “We’re not giving up any of our young assets unless we get something we can keep.” basically.
JM: Not for rentals but the goal is still to make the playoffs this year. So if someone comes to Keith Gretzky, “I’ve got a player that can help you get into the playoffs but he’s on an expiring contract, we would like your first round pick.”
EF: No. Unless… The only way I would say that that’s different is, if I was Keith Gretzky and I really wanted this guy, I would ask for 48 hours to talk about a contract extension.
My first kick at the can here is that the only way they can improve drastically is by dealing one of Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and we’ve mentioned Draisaitl recently.
But I don’t believe they’ll use their main assets to upgrade the roster. I think players like Tyler Benson, Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov, Filip Berglund, and Ostap Safin might be used as trade fodder.
How Do They Get There (Playoffs)?
EF: I don’t have an answer for you on that. (Laughter ensues)
Look, who are you trading? Who are you going to trade that’s going to make a difference in terms of what you get? Who on that team has serious trade value?
JM: You have an interesting asset in Cam Talbot.
EF: Did you hear Burke? (Brian Burke: I don’t think you can move him at that salary, I just don’t think he’s movable.)
JM: Until someone gets a goalie injury.
I agree with Marek here. I think a team like Washington, who is on a mad losing streak right now, might be tempted into trading Andre Burakovsky for an upgrade for their backup position and possibly depth on defense.
EF: It’s a tough one for Talbot right now. So who else?
JM: Evan Bouchard.
EF: I can’t see it. Can I go the Doug MacLean route, I’ll tell you what I’ve heard, I won’t tell you if it’s true. I heard there was some team that had asked about Bouchard and they (Oilers) just said no.
Who’s Got Value?
EF: Well let’s go through, who’s got value? That you can trade and get something for.
JM: Leon Draisaitl.
EF: Yes, you could do that. Would you do that?
JM: Depends on the return. I would trade anybody…
EF: There’s one person you’re not trading, Connor McDavid.
JM: Even with the Hall deal. I had no problem trading Taylor Hall, you just need to get more. I had no problem moving Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle or whatever. So long as you get more in return. Justin Schultz, need to get more for that player. So I have no problem moving anyone outside of 97 on that roster. Do you?
EF: No. I mean I look at a guy like Nurse. He looks like he really wants to be part of the solution. So show me a trade that makes sense for a guy like that. A guy that clearly looks like he wants to be part of your team.
To me, the guys on that team that have value are, duh, McDavid but you’re not doing that. Draisaitl, Nurse, Klefbom, but I don’t think you can do that. Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, the 1st round pick, and I think Yamamoto would have value too.
Leon and Darnell will definitely come up in more trade rumors as time passes by and that’s just because they’re young, they’re very talented, and they’ll bring back what the Oilers could be looking for, right?
If you trade Leon, can you get a center back who is more defensively responsible like Sean Couturier and an upgrade on defense like Ivan Provorov or Shane Gostisbehere? Could Darnell Nurse net the team a desperately needed winger like Kasperi Kapanen or Jake DeBrusk?
JM: Although listening to the Bob Nicholson press Conference, do you not get the sense, because I do; that Puljujarvi is being pulled out of that discussion and they’re going to season him. Nicholson pulled out the old Ken Holland line and said “Over-ripen”.
EF: One of the guys I’ve kinda heard they’ve had some interest in but I’m not sure if he’s actually available is Athanasiou from Detroit.
JM: See that would indicate a significant philosophical shift away from “We’re a big, heavy, strong team. We’re a fast, speedy, quick puck moving team.”
When the shift from a fast and quick team to a big heavy team happened, I was 100% all-in. I was tired of watching the team get pushed around. Things have changed but growing up the Oilers M.O. was that they were one of the best skating teams in the entire league. I would be in favor of a return to that style.
EF: I’m not sure that, A) Detroit wants to do that. He’s still one of those guys that averages a lot of goals for the time he plays. You know the relationship between Athanasiou and the Red Wings has never been easy but Ken Holland strikes me looking at that situation and saying, “He’s still a very valuable young player and we’re not really looking to do anything if we don’t have to.”
But let’s just say this for argument’s sake, what’s it going to cost you to get him? It’s going to cost you a lot. So, in theory, since we’re playing GM here, if you’re Edmonton would you give up one of your young pieces for him?
JM: Yes, because he is a young piece himself and he can play with McDavid and that tempo that would be frightening to the rest of the NHL. You wanna talk about backing up defenseman on the blueline, that’s how you do it.
EF: Here’s my question to you, Bob Nicholson says, “We’re not giving up our young pieces for rentals.” but he’s not a rental. So does that change the equation? Possibly. If he’s available.
This will make my friend Joseph happy. He’s really on the Athanasiou train and I don’t blame him. But at what cost? Yamamoto? Benson? I wouldn’t support a Puljujarvi for Athanasiou trade but I could see a package that included one of the other two I just mentioned going to Detroit for him.
I mean, if we’re dealing with Detroit, why not see if faceoff specialist Luke Glendening and blooming defensive forward Tyler Bertuzzi are available as well?
The New Direction of the Team?
JM: I come back to the philosophical shift perhaps that we’ll see in Edmonton. The “let’s build it heavy and not get pushed around” I’m assuming is done now. I’m assuming the new direction for this team is sympathetic to what the rest of the NHL has gone through and that’s foot speed, move the puck quick, quick, quick. Up-tempo.
EF: You need guys that can play with him. The feeling is that team didn’t play fast enough, so I’m sure they will put something on that.
Now, I don’t see anything wrong with having a tough team but to me, toughness is a lot of different things. It’s not just like, “We’re big and tough and we’re going to crush you.” Toughness is also playing through…
JM: Look, Darnell Nurse is fast and he’s tough.
EF: To me, McDavid is pretty tough. He takes a lot of abuse and he just plays but there is room for toughness.
Your best team has to be everything but there’s no question that they need to play at a faster pace than they have.
I have a theory that the league is going to over-compensate here on the small skilled guy and in a few years, there’s going to be a change of guard again but maybe not so extreme as this one has gone. A player like Quinton Byfield, who is a highly regarded prospect for the 2020 draft, is going to change the way teams look at power forwards. My thinking is, get on it now, find the good skating physical players and develop them and reap the benefits when the pivot happens. And it will happen at some point.
Who Do You Remove?
JM: Who do you remove from this lineup to make it better and how can you?
EF: I think those names are obvious but I think the biggest question is, how can you? So do you wanna just say, “Look, we’re buying out Lucic. We know we don’t get a ton of relief. We know it’s a big waste of money but we’re doing it to make a statement.” Do you wanna do that?
JM: If you’re the next GM it’s pretty tempting.
EF: That’s one the owner has to let you do.
I don’t know if I’d go the buyout route, it’s really expensive and this team needs all the cap room it can get. Might it make more sense to eat 50% and trade Lucic? There’d definitely be a market for him. Especially in the Metropolitan Division…
Darryl Katz
JM: Do you have any problem with Darryl Katz? The ultimate question is, do they have enough stability up top for this to be a successful franchise?
EF: We had a conversation a while ago about what you ask when you’re going in as a GM and my no.1 thing was the owner. I would look at Darryl Katz and I would say, he’s got a brand new building, he spends money on the team, he spent $100M on Connor McDavid, he spent a ton of money on Draisaitl.
I don’t look at anything he’s done from a financial POV and say, “This is a problem.”
This is a guy who is unafraid to spend money on his team and at the base, I like that.
Marek/Friedman go on to talk about the emotional investment Katz has in the team and I’m thinking that could be what’s in the water in Edmonton. Katz’s emotional investment. Maybe he needs to step away and just let his employees do their jobs without interference.
The No.1 Question for Contending GMs
EF: The no.1 question that contenders for this GM job going in will be, “How does it work in your organization? Who reports to who? Who talks to who? Who has the say?”
I don’t think that Wayne Gretzky would do anything to prevent a GM from doing what he/she wants to do. I don’t think he would. But I think people get intimidated by him and I think also Katz listens to him. He’s Wayne Gretzky, he’s smart. And I think you have to be very secure to go into that position and say, “Okay, I know this dynamic is here and I can handle it.” Even though I think it would be Gretzky’s goal to be helpful to anyone who went in there.
Bring a guy like Mark Hunter in, who played against Wayne during the 80s. I can guarantee that he’s not intimidated by the Great One.
There’s a bit of talk going on about how much collaboration there was with Chiarelli during his tenure and I can be sure he had full autonomy until the last few months here.
So it’s natural to suggest that the new guy should have full control but isn’t that what Chiarelli had? After all, he was the President of Hockey Operations AND the General Manager.
The Old Boys Club
EF: I have heard that. That he (Kevin Lowe) doesn’t get in the way. MacTavish does his job, offers his opinion, tries to stay out of the way. I’ve heard there were things this year that with Gretzky that he didn’t agree with but he’s like, “It’s not my call. I’ll offer my opinion but it’s not my call.”
However, there’s no question, they all get together. They all talk. They all have opinions.
I just think that if you’re going to go in there, you have to understand that that’s the way it is. But I don’t buy the idea that they’re interfering with these guys or preventing these guys from doing their jobs.
Tell me how Wayne Gretzky or Craig MacTavish or Kevin Lowe or any of those guys working there prevented Peter Chiarelli from doing what he wanted to do. Give me evidence.
JM: The only thing I’ve heard about that level of management is that they’ve talked Darryl Katz off the ledge sometimes. And Katz has wanted something to happen and Gretzky’s come in to say, “Hold on a second, pull back, big picture this one. Let’s not act emotionally.”
I can second this. From what I’ve been told, Katz has flown into Oilers games before, calling for heads only to be calmed down and convinced otherwise by either Bob Nicholson or Gretz.
EF: I’ve heard the same thing. Darryl Katz was the guy who said we’re taking Nail Yakupov. So, you can make all the excuses you want or you can come up with things you want and I have chased this story as much as anybody else has because we always here it, “The old Oilers are preventing the new guys from winning.” But I’ve had guys swear up and down to me that they really try their best now to stay out of the way because they know how the market feels about it.
I just think it’s a convenient excuse for fans to make up when everything else has dried up. It hasn’t helped that there’ve been more than a few reunions in recent years. So the OBC has been around a bit more often than previous to McDavid arriving.
The Toxicity Around the Organization
JM: What does that mean to you?
EF: It’s what we talked about. It’s the crisis of consumer confidence. Your fans don’t believe in your vision, they don’t believe in you. They’re not showing up to games. They’re not buying their renewals. You’ve made the playoffs once since they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2006 and they love their team.
Like I mentioned. I don’t see this consumer crisis as THAT bad. Have you seen how many people show up to Florida Panthers games? What about games in Anaheim, Carolina, or Arizona (When Edmonton isn’t playing there)? Those are clubs where half or more of their arenas are empty for a majority of their home games.
I don’t see this during Edmonton games at all. When’s the last time the Oilers tarped off portions of the upper deck during the regular season to try and make the arena appear more full than it actually is?
The Oilers are lucky that their fanbase has been this loyal to them. Very lucky and still very passionate.
How ridiculous was it two years ago when they went to the 2nd round of the playoffs and people were paying what, $80 to buy a ticket to stand in the concourse. They couldn’t even see the game.
That is definitely ridiculous. Might as well hit up a nearby pub or just hang out outside the arena with a phone or a tablet and watch the game there. Save the $80.
On the ex-Oiler thing, I have heard that they are well aware of how people feel about them and they do their jobs and they ask their opinions as they are told and they try to stay out of the way. Again, I heard that there were things that some of them didn’t like this year or last couple years and they just said, “Okay.”
The other thing that I think Wayne Gretzky has to offer is there’s only one guy that can talk to McDavid peer-to-peer and say, “I know how you’re feeling.” or “I can help you get through this feeling.” and that’s Wayne Gretzky. That, to me, is a very valuable service.
Right now, what’s Edmonton really sensitive about? Their fans when someone from Toronto steps up and says, “Well, Connor McDavid is going to be unhappy there.”
Now I don’t believe that. It’s going to take longer than this for McDavid to his patience, though I think the losing kills him. But that’s where Gretzky comes in. “I can manage you through it, I can help you with this.” and there’s probably only one guy in the world that can talk to McDavid at that level who’s an executive, and that’s the guy that is employed in the organization.
That’s it. 35 minutes of Edmonton Oilers talk. If you missed part one, it’s right here.
What do you think about what Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman said? Let us know in the comments below!
