I hope you all had a really good Christmas and Santa brought you what you wanted. Things over here in Taipei are a bit different as the kids still have to go to school and we’ve still got work to go to. So we got the rascals up a bit early to open their gifts before class and this year Santa brought Oilers toques for everyone as well as a Hurricanes jersey for the girl and a Wild jersey for the boy. Santa’s always thinking of those Christmas colors eh? Mrs. BLH cooked up a wonderful ham and I got the pleasure of watching everybody else enjoy the day.
Today’s post is not going to paint a pretty picture for you if you’re a fan of the Edmonton Oilers. If you’re a cynic, what you’re about to read will reaffirm your suspicions. If you’re an optimist, you might say that none of this matters and to look at the standings. Either way, for me, there are three players who need to get their act together or they could sink the Oilers 2020 playoff hopes for good.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he’s scoring at the rate of a 4th line winger.
RNH’s pts/60 at 5×5 is sitting at 1.09 and generally, you’d like that up over two. To put it in perspective, Gaetan Haas’ pts/60 is 1.04 and “Dwight” Joakim Nygard’s is 1.02…
If you thought that was bad, Nuge’s pts/60 in December is .51… But he’s not the worst… Check out this link to see how the rest of the team has been performing. #FindGoodKassiansKeepGoodKassians
- Leon Draisaitl is giving every goal back that he scores and more as of recent.
At 5×5 in December, the Oilers with Draisaitl on the ice are -16. When he’s off of the ice they’re +1… Good Christ… He’s single-handedly sinking the team with his lack of defensive awareness and execution. Maybe it’s time Coach Tippett gives him a break and lays off the 22+ min games… But you have to ask yourself, is he playing Leon so much because he’s trying to compensate for a lack of scoring elsewhere (RNH maybe…)?
- Mike Smith has been performing at an AHL level since the 51-save game against Pittsburgh.
The veteran goalie is carrying a .856 SV% and a GAA of 4.21 in the ten games since that eventful performance… I still happen to believe it’s just a tough stretch for Smith and that he could break out of it, but he also needs some help from his teammates too. Unfortunately, though, we’ve seen this group quit on goalies before. Just ask Cam Talbot.
Maybe it’s possible that Smith, a 37-year-old, could use the rest as well. He’s played over 5000 minutes of hockey since the 2017/18 season. There are only 25 goalies in the league that have played that much in that time and he’s done it in 116 games.
Record: 20-16-4 (13th)
| Name | Stat | Overall Season Standing |
| GF | 115 | 13th (-4) |
| GA | 123 | 27th best (-17) |
| GF/GP | 2.88 | 20th (-6) |
| GA/GP | 3.08 | 17th best (-3) |
| PP% | 29.7% | 1st (=) |
| PK% | 83% | 8th (-6) |
| Shots For/GP | 29.1 | 27th (+1) |
| Shots Against/GP | 31.3 | 12th best (+1) |
| FOW% | 48% | 27th (=) |
These more traditional stats falling into the red are troubling. Their goals against per game is now more than their goals for and there’s no way that ends well. The penalty kill really took a hit this time around too. But it looks like the boys are starting to get more shots off whilst at the same time denying the other teams.
Personally, I’d like to see Ken Holland pick up a right-handed center who wins 55%+ of the draws he takes and a winger who shoots in volume. Let’s get these numbers right up there.
If Anaheim’s Rickard Rakell is available and I’m Ken Holland, I look into that deep. The swede is right-handed, plays center, shoots more, scores more, is younger, and has a better contract then the Oilers current no.2 pivot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. From an analytics perspective, Rakell is better there too!
I’d have zero qualms sending Nuge and Puljujarvi to Anaheim for Rakell and Ondrej Kase. Doubt the Ducks do that mind you.
| Name | Stat | Overall Standing |
| Hits | 854 | 9th (+1) |
| Blocked Shots | 609 | 1st (=) |
| Missed Shots | 441 | 14th (-2) |
| Giveaways | 433 | 6th (+1) |
| Takeaways | 329 | 5th(-2) |
| Shooting Percentage | 9.9% | 14th (-8) |
The above stats are courtesy of NHL.com.
The shooting percentage took a hit but it’s pretty status quo from the Oilers’ previous ten games. I’m sure with Adam Larsson back and Darnell Nurse, as well as Zack Kassian, becoming grumpier with every game that passes, Edmonton might fight their hits increasing and maybe that opens things up for the Oilers’ more skilled players to get off a few more shots and score a few more goals.
The Fancies (5×5)
| Name | Stat | Overall Standing |
| Corsi For % | 47.34% | 27th (-3) |
| Fenwick For % | 48.14% | 25th (-4) |
| Shots For% | 47.75% | 26th (-1) |
| Goals For % | 44.65% | 27th (-4) |
| Expected Goals For % | 48.21% | 24th (-5) |
| Scoring Chances For % | 47.11% | 25th (=) |
| Scoring Chances Goals For % | 44.6% | 28th (-4) |
| High Danger Chances For % | 49.93% | 17th (-2) |
| High Danger Goals For % | 47.83% | 23rd (-9) |
| High Danger Shooting % | 18.26% | 11th (+6) |
| High Danger Save % | 81.32% | 23rd (-8) |
| PDO | .990 | 23rd (-3) |
If any of these metrics are unfamiliar to you, please consult the Natural Stat Trick Glossary.
Move along… Nothing to see here.
Edmonton added Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones to their defense this year, two very good puck-moving defenders, and yet, their possession stats are still sitting in the dungeon. Has the absence of Matt Benning hurt this much? When Brandon Manning was in the lineup, I don’t recall the Oilers’ shot metrics being this poor, but then again, maybe the special teams, goaltending, and unworldly play from McDavid and Draisaitl was masking all of that…
The fact of the matter is, this team has underperformed all season from an advanced metrics point-of-view. What’s a little startling is that there’s not much farther to go before they hit 31st on most of those metrics with more than half of the season remaining.
On the other hand, the Oilers haven’t spent any time below third in the Pacific Division regardless of what the fancies have said.
The Next Ten Games (41-50)
- vs. Calgary Flames (19-15-5) – The Oilers should be bitter as hell coming back from the Christmas break and looking for retribution. In terms of gf/ga on the year, the Flames are -12 and Edmonton could feast on that. The Oilers have taken two of the past three contests. (WIN)
- vs. New York Rangers (17-15-4) – Edmonton will get its first look at 2019 2nd overall pick Kaapo Kakko and welcome back former Oiler, Ryan Strome. This should be a scheduled win for Edmonton as the Rangers aren’t anything special this year. The Oilers have won three on the trot vs. the Rags. (WIN)
- @ Buffalo Sabres (17-14-7) – Generally, over the years the Oilers have had pretty good luck in Buffalo, but this year Jack Eichel is a man possessed and last time Rasmus Dahlin was out of the lineup. If Dahlin is back in for this game, he’ll add a significant threat. I like Edmonton’s chances here though. (WIN)
- @ Boston Bruins (22-7-9) – The Bruins went into the Christmas break on a bit of a slump going 2-4-4 in their previous ten. This is going to be a challenge for the Oilers to win even when Boston is at their worst and there’s no better team to bust a slump against than Edmonton, right? (LOSS)
- @ Toronto Maple Leafs (20-14-4) – Toronto’s confidence was sky high before baby Jesus’ bday, but guess who comes to play each time he’s back home. That’s right, Connor McDavid. It will take a complete team effort for the Oilers to beat their nemesis, Freddy Andersen, though as he’s really had Edmonton’s number. (OT LOSS)
- @ Montreal Canadiens (18-13-6) – I really enjoyed Edmonton’s performance against the Habs in their earlier match. If the Oilers can replicate that, I don’t see why a win is out of the question. (WIN)
- @ Calgary Flames (19-15-5) – Round two! Ding. Ding. In Calgary, I think the Flames might be able to muster up a win here. (LOSS)
- vs. Nashville Predators (18-12-6) – Is Pekka Rinne in net? If so, I’ll give this one to the Oilers. If it’s Saros, the Preds have a much better chance of success. They’ve been an interesting team to watch this year and are playing in a tough division. Their 42pts at the break had them in 3rd last in the Central… (WIN)
- vs. Arizona Coyotes (21-14-4) – Hallsy’s back and if the Oilers would like to go that extra mile, they could show him how much of a powerhouse they plan to be next season by wiping the floor with Arizona, but it’ll be a tough game. Arizona is a lot deeper than the Oilers and their netminding has been much better. This needs to be a game where Edmonton’s defense shines. (OT LOSS)
- vs. Calgary Flames (19-15-5) – Coming off of a 10-day break, Mikko Koskinen and the Oilers will be well-rested. In theory, they should be as ready as they’re ever going to be to take on their inter-province rivals. (WIN)
(Standings as of December 26th, 2019)
It’s a very optimistic prediction of 6-2-2 in this bank of ten, but if the Oilers smarten up and TIGHTEN up, I don’t see why a return to their October form isn’t out of the question. Edmonton’s more relaxed schedule favors them a bit here too. That said, I talked about the three things, or players rather, that need to get off their asses and get things going or else the season will continue to slip away. The saving graces being the continued performances of Mikko Koskinen, Connor McDavid, Edmonton’s top defensive pairing in Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson, as well as, the special teams staying top-ten in each category.
The boys are going to have to pull out of whatever funk they’re in on their own I reckon. Ken Holland might tinker here or there, but as for a substantial trade… Not unless they’ve got a near-guaranteed chance of playoffs.
