Top Analytics Company Says Duncan Keith Can Still Play AND Would be a Welcome Addition to the Oilers

Coming from an Edmonton Oilers point of view, BLH provides you with excerpts from the latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation from all of the internet’s best sites including Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, Sportsnet, The Athletic, TSN and more!

From Sportsnet

Analyzing how impactful Duncan Keith could be on a new team

Can Duncan Keith still play? Yes, yes, he can.

The reality is, Keith is not a top-pair, 23-plus minutes per night defenceman anymore. However, in a more sheltered role, there is reason to believe he can still be a productive player. Keith has always been a great skater and he did well this season breaking pucks out of the defensive zone. Keith ranked 38th among all defencemen in defensive zone carry-outs (skating the puck out of the defensive zone), averaging 3.4 per game.
Keith also has a good defensive stick, ranking third among all defencemen in blocked passes in the defensive zone. Again, this is more a reflection of his ability in this area than a byproduct of being hemmed in his end. One of the league leaders in expected goals for percentage, Keith ranked first in defensive zone blocked passes.
In Edmonton, he would not have to be a top-pairing defenceman as the number one spot on the left side of the ice is occupied by Darnell Nurse. Keith could fit on the second pairing…
Like the Blackhawks, the Oilers create a lot of offence off the rush, finishing top 10 in rush chances and goals this season. Edmonton was better than Chicago at limiting these chances against so, in a supporting role, Keith’s puck-moving ability would be a welcome addition.

BLH’s Thoughts: It’s always interesting when an analytics company, one of the best ones I know of, post an article that flies in the face of the armchair GMs…

One thing that Koskinen and Smith were susceptible to were the dreaded cross-seam one-timers because Edmonton’s defenders couldn’t get their sticks on the passes. So, theoretically, if the Oilers have the best players in the entire NHL at defending those passes, it couldn’t hurt, right?

From The Athletic

Lowetide: What is a reasonable trade price for Oilers to pay for Duncan Keith?

What recent trades are similar to a Keith to Edmonton deal? What was the payment?

June 22, 2019: Toronto Maple Leafs trade Patrick Marleau, a first-round pick (No. 13) and a seventh-round pick (No. 199) to the Carolina Hurricanes for a sixth-round pick (No. 177). All picks in the 2020 draft.
Jan. 1, 2020: Calgary Flames traded Michael Frolik to the Buffalo Sabres for the No. 91 selection in the 2020 draft.
Feb. 24, 2020: Chicago Blackhawks traded Erik Gustafsson to the Calgary Flames for the No. 81 selection in the 2020 draft.

I think fair value is Edmonton dealing Caleb Jones for Keith and a first-round selection to cover the $5 million cap hit.

If GM Ken Holland can make a deal where the club offloads Kyle Turris (rumoured to be in the deal) and Chicago retains another $2 million of Keith’s contract, then the Oilers would be trading for a third-pairing defender who has two years left at a cap hit of $3,538,462 and saving a little on a Turris buyout.

What can be disputed is the idea that all of the risk must land in Edmonton. That is not acceptable, and I expect Holland knows that is the case. But this is going to be a difficult trade to win, in the early days and especially down the line.

BLH’s Thoughts: The fact of the matter here with this was all initiated by Duncan Keith, not the Blackhawks and not the Oilers. Keith is the one with the no-trade clause and he’s the one that has told Stan Bowman that he wants to be closer to his son in the Okanagan. So, it’s not a “dump” per se and it won’t be treated as one.

This trade could take some time to negotiate but as we get closer to the expansion draft protection list deadline, I’m certain things will ramp up a bit and if not then, perhaps negotiations would get revisited at the draft IF the deal is even to take place.

That said, remember how close things felt when Elliotte Friedman was reporting that Zach Parise was going to the Islanders? At least to me, that trade felt like a certainty but it hasn’t come to fruition yet.

So, while I’m pleased as punch the trade hasn’t been made or called off (that means more eyes on the site), I’m as prepared for nothing to happen as I am for them to happen.

From Oilersnation

Jason Gregor on what he’s hearing regarding the Edmonton Oilers plans going into next season,

They need two more left wingers, a third line centre, a second pair left defenceman and figure out what to do in goal.
If they re-sign Mike Smith, then next summer the Oilers could have no NHL goalies under contract when Smith and Mikko Koskinen’s contracts expire. That is a scary position to be in, and I’m curious to see how Oilers GM Ken Holland navigates that situation.
Ryan McLeod will play and should start as the 4th line centre. If he plays well and pushes the third centre (still undetermined who that will be) that is a good problem, but I’d plan for McLeod to be the 4C and ensure I have a 3C ready.
Dmitri Samorukov will compete for a spot in training camp. He is close to being NHL ready, and I expect he will play some games this season.

BLH’s Thoughts: I really think that one of Samorukov, Broberg, or Niemelainen is going to win a spot out of camp. I’ll put my money on the Russian for now as they’ll need a rugged cold-blooded son of a bitch who fears nothing on the third pair to run wild with Old Man Bouchard.

You know what would be cool? If Samorukov developed into a Vladimir Konstantinov-type. I know it’s hopeful and a lot of fantasy on my part, but this guy… He’s not one to be trifled with and he can play the game…

What I’m also curious about is with regards to signing free agents or making trades before the season starts, how does Ken Holland decide how many bodies to bring in if there’s a chance he’s got a few young fellas ready to take the next step and begin their NHL careers.

Normally on my birthday I’d take the day off, but we’re just coming to the end of our own little Covid lockdown and there’s no real point it going out with the family when there aren’t that many places to go. Plus it’s f*cking roasting out there… Summers in Taipei mean waking up to 35 degree mornings and I’ve made it a habit over the years to stay indoors until the evenings and even then if we go out, I’m coming home with a sweat-soaked t-shirt.

So, instead, I decided to grind away and give you what you’ve come to expect everyday.

Have a good one!

BLH

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