Around the Oilogosphere – April 2nd Edition – Lucic’s Numbers During His Slump, Determining the Hart Winner, A Partner for Leon, Firing McLellan, and NHL Rumors

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I can’t say I’m ever happy when the Oilers lose, maybe the year when everyone was tanking for McDavid, but certainly not when the Oilers are playing the Calgary Shames. I will say this though, from the 2nd period on, that was a good hockey game and for me, that’s all I can really ask for.

But the man who has drawn the most focus from that installment of the Battle of Alberta was Milan Lucic. He had a couple of chances to score, he was hitting, he was backchecking, and best of all he was stirring the pot baby!

I loved what Milan Lucic did there. He has had a VERY tough season on the scoresheet and there are a lot of people saying he’s finished as an NHLer (at age 29, give your head a shake if you’re one of those people) but the worst thing that I heard after the game last night was this from Rob Soria;

Great…if the plan is for him to play like a thug and punch goaltenders in the head, regardless of who started the scrum, $6M could've certainly been better spent elsewhere. This isn't the 1970's, 80's or 90's

— Rob Soria (@Oil_Drop) April 1, 2018

Now, Rob is one of the more experienced writers who blogs about the Oilers and he’s a pretty decent guy on the whole but maybe we should take hitting right out of the game too. We wouldn’t want to offend anyone.

Either way, it’s a BS comment, in my opinion, given that Mike Smith is the biggest a**hole goalie in the league and deserves everything that he gets.

As for Milan Lucic, I did some digging about and was quite surprised with some of my findings.

I went to naturalstattrick.com and set up some filters (5×5, 500 min TOI, forwards only, 12/23 to 3/31) and simply got his numbers for the duration of his slump.

In that time frame, did you know that he has the best CF% on the team (51%)? Did you know he has the 4th best Shots For/60, Fenwick For/60, and Scoring Chances Against/60 on the team? His Scoring Chances For % is #1 on the team and his High-Danger Changes For % is #2.

Now if we expand the focus to league-wide in that same time frame (using the same filters) we’ll find that Lucic still rates highly. I put some comparables (184 skaters) in brackets behind his league rank to give you an idea of who his peers are in each category)

CF/60 – #62 (Malkin, Couture, Wheeler)
CA/60 – #95 (Cogliano, P.Kane, Toews)
CF% – #88 (Ovechkin, Johansen, Hall)
FF/60 – #55 (E.Kane, Backstrom, Benn)
FA/60 – #56 (O’Reilly, Panarin, Marchessault)
FF% – #52 (W.Karlsson, Getzlaf, McDavid)

SF/60 – #55 (P.Kane, Benn, Konecny)
SA/60 – #102 (Panarin, Stepan, Draisaitl)
SF% – #87 (Trocheck, O’Reilly, Eberle)

SCF/60 – #46 (Ehlers, Kadri, Oshie)
SCA/60 – #123 (P.Kane, Marner, Toews)
SCF% – #85 (Kopitar, McDavid, Laine)

HDCF/60 – #14!!! (JVR, Rakell, Eberle)
HDCA/60 – #129 (Tatar, Jenner, MacKinnon)
HDCF% – #53 (Kucherov, Zuccarello, Hall)

Those are the good numbers. Where Lucic is struggling is in the goal metrics but that’s nothing new. In fact, that’s where Chia-haters and anti-Lucic folks go to dine heartily.

GF/60 – #174 (Drouin, Sobotka, Strome)
GA/60 – #164 (Barzal, Kucherov, Monahan)
GF% – #180 (P.Kane, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey)

Lastly, I want to point out that his PDO is .954 and that’s good for 180/184 skaters. What do we hear about players that have low PDOs? Eventually things will regress to the mean. But we don’t hear that about a 29-yr-old Milan Lucic, do we? We are told that because of his style of play (one that has yet to force him out injured for any period of time) he’s more likely to be in decline than other players his age that are experiencing this kind of slump. (stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com)

I suppose that DOES sound good if you were against the signing in the first place or you don’t like players like Milan Lucic. I imagine you’d want to see him fail because for some narcissistic reason because in your world that means you were right… And being right trumps everything in the short term.

I can’t wait until next season…

So I can see why the coach would want to put Lucic out there when the team needs a goal. Now, where he asks Lucic to go on the ice and what he tells him to do, that’s a different story.

Regardless, at the end of the day, Milan Lucic must find a way to be a difference maker on the ice. Be that with a hit, a fight, using his body to win a board battle or create room on the ice for a linemate, a shot, pass, or even a goal; it’s up to Lucic to find a way.

I would like to urge you to forget about his salary though. It is what it is and now it’s on the coach to find a place for him to be as impactful as possible. If that is the 3rd line, so be it. If that is on the 4th line, so be it. You have to get rid of his idea that there are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines. Every coach will tell you that whatever line is running onhot on a given night, that’s the top line.

I’m sure Ryan Callahan and David Backes don’t take as much shit as Lucic does making what they make and producing what they produce. Just like Lucic didn’t take as much crap last year when the Oilers were in the playoffs.

OILERS NEWS

The Cult of Hockey – Connor McDavid, Claude Giroux, Nathan MacKinnon Rank Highest for Individual Achievement in NHL This Year – It’s no easy matter to determine which player deserves to be the National Hockey League’s Hart Trophy winner, the award given to the player deemed to be most valuable to his team in the regular season each year.

The Hockey Writers – Will the Oilers Really Fire McLellan? – With the season all but over and the Oilers about to head golfing for the summer, the organization is rumored to be taking a good, long look at the roster, the coaching staff, the management and other areas that let the team down this season. No doubt, there will be people who lose their jobs. Is one of those people the head coach?

Edmonton Sun – Puljujarvi’s Progress a Slow Process – He hasn’t caught up to the pace of the game on a consistent basis so his skills can take over naturally. And until he does, there will be nights like Saturday against the Flames where the 19-year-old Edmonton Oilers winger gets 13 uneventful minutes.

The Oil Knight – Oshawa/Niagara Series Recap – t was a very chippy series with plenty of penalties and where 2 players were suspended. Oshawa did their best to try and punish the Ice Dogs physically but Niagara did a great job after that first game of just settling down and playing their game and letting their skill take over.

Oilersnation – Finding a Partner for Leon Draisaitl – Could the team still use a skilled volume shooter to ride shotgun on their top-line? Sure, but you could argue that a more glaring need is finding a competent line mate for Leon Draisaitl who, if all stays the same, will be centering the teams second unit next season.

Oilersnation – Oilers Prospect Update: Benson and Hebig are No Joke

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