Barrie Vs. Trouba: Who Would Be a Better Fit for the Oilers

The day is upon us! I imagine it will be quite anti-climatic for Oilers fans. Tyson Barrie will be a member of the Colorado Avalanche for one or two more seasons at least because the Avs simply have all of the power right now. If I’m not mistaken Barrie is under team control for at least another two years. So the ball is in their court unless Barrie wants to steal it and run home with it.

Woodguy had another great spot on Lowetide’s show yesterday and in it he talked about Barrie and Trouba. I’m going to do my best to transcribe it below and then comment on it because he made some interesting points regarding the two with regards to the Oilers. If you want to listen to it I’ll put the soundcloud link at the end of the transcription. The talk about Trouba/Barrie starts around minute 33.

*I got in touch with Woodguy after this post was finished and he told me he’d mis-said somethings and tweeted out the following to clear them up*

Yesterday on @LowdownLowetide I mis-spoke about Barrie, Davidson, Trouba and Hamonic. I was thinking "expected goals" but was saying "shots"

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) July 29, 2016

Here is what I was thinking about. Expected Goals (from @MannyElk ) Which is a weighted shot metric. pic.twitter.com/Sh60fpGFuM

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) July 29, 2016

The Expected Goal metric shows why I love me some Davidson and Trouba, and not Barrie so much. There are some QoC issues there, but not much

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) July 29, 2016

Here is what I was thinking about. Expected Goals (from @MannyElk ) Which is a weighted shot metric. pic.twitter.com/Sh60fpGFuM

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) July 29, 2016

LT: Is he (Barrie) a good fit, a great fit, or a perfect fit for the Oilers?

WG: I think he’s a good fit Al. The shine has come off of Barrie for me a little bit as I keep digging deeper and deeper into defensemen trying to figure out what makes them good. And as I dig deeper into defensemen Al, I value points less and I value possession more and defending more, the ability to defend and the ability to turn the puck up ice. I value that more than points.

So for instance if you had a Jacob Trouba on one side and Barrie on the other, they’re both available for the exact same dollars, I take Trouba 100 times out of 100 because of how he plays 5×5, how he defends 5×5 and his ability to transition the puck.

He affects the shots against in a good way, the shots for in a good way and Barrie does that but not on the same scale and actually Barrie doesn’t do that. The shots against go up when Barrie’s on the ice. He’s a bit of a saloon door that way but he scores so much that you kinda forgive him for it.

But I want a guy that’s better both ways, a guy that affects the shots for in a positive way, a guy that affects the shots against in a positive way.

LT: And that’s Hamonic.

WG: That’s Hamonic, that’s uhhhhh. Actually Hamonic. No, it’s not Hamonic. The shots against go up when Hamonic is on the ice.

No, there’s only a few guys who can do that and the list is shorter than I thought it’d be and believe it or not, Trouba falls into that list.

So, you know, and you have RNH and McDavid, so I don’t think the Oilers really need a PP quarterback out on that right-hand defenseman, they just need a shot and Trouba’s got a howitzer.

You know, one of the reasons I’m starting to value points less 5×5 Al, think about this.

LT: This is about defenseman.

WG: This is about defensemen, the top 10 NHL teams in goals for last year, Washington didn’t have a Barrie-type, Florida had Campbell mehhh.

LT: What about Mike Green?

WG: Mike Green played for Detroit last year. Old man.

Dallas had Klingberg and that’s one thing and he’s there and Pittsburgh had Letang, Rangers had McDonagh. So they kinda had one guy but then you have Boston, Tampa, the Islanders, Calgary, Columbus.

No one is that Barrie-Type yet, these guys (teams) score the most. If you look at why they score the most, you look at their overall defense core in terms of transitioning the puck. The Rangers kinda stick out like a sore thumb but otherwise those are pretty decent teams defense core-wise. Columbus is a little weird but we can get into that, they have a really nice set of forwards in terms of possession and scoring.

But that’s your top 5×5 scoring teams Al and that’s where the Oilers really need help and you don’t necessarily need a Barrie-type,  you need a solid solid top four. So if you can add a Trouba and I think that helps the Oilers much much much more than a Barrie.

Isn’t that crazy? I was under the impression that Barrie was far and away the better player. But if we take a look at some of the charts we have available like the HERO chart and Ryan Stimson’s passing project chart (I’m not sure how often this chart is being updated though, it says last updated in July of 2015… So take that chart with a grain of salt).

Be forewarned, the post is about to get a bit long due to the charts and stats. If you want to you can scroll down a bit and you’ll probably get the gist in the conclusion.

So even with these two charts, it’s tough to discern who is truly the better of the two. You’d probably look at both charts and say Barrie is much better than Trouba but what if we use the Woodmoney metrics to toss some more confusion into the salad bowl?

So with Barrie, we can see that he had his most successful defensive deployment versus the “dregs” of the NHL when Colorado was away from home. Basically the bottom tier of players. And his most successful offensive deployment came against the “dregs” of the Eastern Conference.

All in All, his dangerous fenwick for per sixty isn’t great and neither is his dangerous fenwick against per sixty. He puts up points at the sacrifice of his team’s defence is how I am reading things.

Jacob Trouba’s most successful defensive deployment came when we was put out against the “dregs” when Winnipeg played away from home and his most successful offensive deployment came versus against the same competition.

The big difference between Trouba and Barrie here is in the final tallies.

Trouba DFF/60 – 41.5 DFA/60 – 36
Barrie   DFF/60 – 36.8 DFA/60 – 43.4

I believe the numbers are telling me that Jacob Trouba is a far a better defenseman than Tyson Barrie and that flows with what Woodguy was saying. He creates more dangerous shot attempts per sixty and he prevents more dangerous shot attempts per sixty minutes than Tyson Barrie.

What are their impacts on teammates?

Trouba’s WOWYs come out on top as well.

So one (as an Oilers fan) really has to ask themselves, are the Edmonton Oilers better off with a Jacob Trouba-type or a Tyson Barrie-type?

For me, I love what Jacob Trouba brings to the table. He’s mean, he can play actual defense and he’s got a bloody hard shot. He’s the modern-day Dave Manson in my opinion. Probably a better skater. But his contract demands scare me a bit. Would that be an issue in the future? Could you imagine a top six like this:

Klefbom/Larsson
Sekera/Trouba
Nurse/Davidson

Good Lord have mercy on the forwards of the NHL!!

That being said though, the Oilers haven’t had an pure offensive dman in some time. A guy that can put up points from the… Point would be quite the addition but I’m not sure it’s a pertinent need for Edmonton right now. I’d rather have a defense that can move the puck efficiently to the forwards and let them do the scoring.

If the Oilers can produce an offensive dman from within (Joey Laleggia/Jordan Oesterle??) and toss him out there with cherry minutes and soft zone starts whilst getting some PP minutes, what’s the hurt in that? This would allow them to move a Brandon Davidson into the no.4 spot on defense and give the Oilers a very solid top-two pairings, each with a shut-down defenseman and a puck mover.

From my understanding the Oilers have talked to the Jets in the past and we know they’ve been talking to the Avalanche. As far as I know these have been the asks from each team for their player:

Winnipeg wanted Oscar Klefbom AND Darnell Nurse for Jacob Trouba.
Colorado wants Jordan Eberle and Brandon Davidson for Tyson Barrie and Jarome Iginla (apparently).

Now, doesn’t that throw a wrench into things. If that’s the cost of doing business, I think that the shop should be closed for the summer in E-town. The Oilers finally have some depth in nearly every position and there’s competition for the top six forwards and the bottom four defensemen. I would say that this would be a good time to stand pat and see what the players within the organization can offer before making another trade or signing.

What do you think? I hope I haven’t butchered the understanding of those stats but if I have let me know in the comments below!