With the NHL Entry Draft this Friday and Saturday, let’s circle the wagons one last time with a questionnaire for both of our contributing scouts, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries). I’ll be participating in this exercise 🙂
Question #1: With the 8th-overall pick, do the Edmonton Oilers move up, trade back, or stay put?
Max: Personally, I always prefer staying put. Moving forward can work out if a team really has an eye on a certain player, but at the 8th-overall spot moving up just a few picks can be costly. Trading back is risky as your guy may be off the board. I’d see Edmonton staying put and selecting from the various talents in the deep #5-#14 range, of this class.
Keith: If you look at Ken Holland’s recent track record, at the draft, he doesn’t usually move up or down. I see him staying put because a) it’s in his nature and b) because the options at #8 are probably as equal as they would be if he moved up to, say, 6th-overall. He might slide back a spot-or-two if he can pick up a valuable asset in a trade, but I just don’t see that happening.
BLH: I concur with the scouts on this one. I don’t really see the advantage in moving up to anything apart from 3rd overall and I can’t see that happening. Trading down would be a more likely event given the group of players ranked #4 to #12, but even then, I just don’t see the point. Get your guy at 8 and walk away happy. Don’t mess around.
Question #2: Playing armchair GM, if you stay at the 8th-overall pick, who would you draft if the following players had already been selected?
1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Alex Turcotte
4) Bowen Byram
5) Kirby Dach
6) Dylan Cozens
7) Cole Caufield
Max: In this scenario, Peyton Krebs is my guy. Krebs was on a weak Kootenay team but found success, nonetheless. He can run his own line and drive offense even without great teammates.
Keith: I think Trevor Zegras would make a lot of sense. He’s, in my opinion, the smartest player at the top of this class, on-and-off the ice. Really good kid – and when you couple that with all the gifts he has in the rink, it’s really a no-brainer. …See what I did there?
BLH: Krebs and Zegras would definitely be of great value to the Oilers going forth. They’d add an element of flash to the Oilers center depth and if I had to choose one or the other, I’d probably side with Max here and go with Krebs due to his work ethic and two-way game.
With that said, I’m a Matthew Boldy man. For my money, he’s the best all-around forward in the draft and the Oilers are really lacking in those. He can stir the drink from the wing and there aren’t many players in the game you can say do that. He can play across the board and in every situation. To add to that, he’s most likely physically ready to play pro right now and his vision, hands, and hockey IQ are right up there with the best in the draft. A season or two in the NCAA will develop him into an impact player upon his NHL debut.
Question #3: Who do you think (realistically) will be on the board at #38? Who should the Oilers draft with that pick?
Max: A good option might be Patrik Puistola. Puistola is a popular pick for an under the radar, 2nd-round, option, who’s found a lot of success in the Mestis – the 2nd premiere adult league, in Finland. Puistola is a creative goal scorer who will make the jump to the Liiga, next season.
Keith: A guy that doesn’t get enough love is Maxim Cajkovic. The definition of a “journeyman,” he’s played pretty much all over the world, already, and when you look at how well he’s performed at every stop along the road, he’s the kind of guy that teams will trade for at the deadline to go on a ‘Cup run.
BLH: This will really depend on who the Oilers take at 8th overall. I reckon it’ll be a pretty offensive player, so… I really like John Beecher here. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft, he plays center, and he likes to get mucky. I don’t feel he’s quick like Hughes, but he’s fast like jersey flapping Mike Modano fast. He’s got a pro frame and at the end of the day, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being 6’2″ and 210lbs. Just a beast on skates. The downside is he’s not all that offensively gifted, so the Oilers might be developing a defensive center/wing here in Beecher if they take him.
Question #4: Do you think Edmonton selects a goaltender in this draft? Why or why not?
Max: Edmonton has six picks in this draft and, with no NHL level netminder in their system, it might be worth spending at least one on a goalie. Spencer Knight might be out of the Oilers’ range, but there’s a deep class behind him who could be available in the 3rd-round.
Keith: It depends on who’s available and when. For me, there are three goaltenders in this draft that matter: Spencer Knight, Dustin Wolf, and Ilya Konovalov. If any of those guys are sitting there in the 3rd-or-4th rounds, I don’t care how good of prospects Stuart Skinner or Olivier Rodrigue are, I’m making the pick.
BLH: I’m not sure. With only six picks, I’d be hard-pressed to take one knowing there are four already in the system. I’d probably wait until next season or if I felt the urge to add another one, sign a free agent out of the NCAA or Europe.
Question #5: Another armchair GM scenario… You’re approached by the Avalanche to trade up to #4. It will cost you the: 8th, 85th, and 100th-overall picks. Do you make that trade, knowing the following players are off the board – and who would you select?
1) Jack Hughes
2) Kaapo Kakko
3) Bowen Byram
Max: Alex Turcotte is my 3rd-ranked prospect, in this draft, and I’d jump at the chance to take him. He’s by far the most complete player in the draft. When you combine his skating, creativity, scoring, intellect, and playmaking abilities, he’s easily the best option available after Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko.
Keith: I’d likely ask for additional draft pick in-return – 3-for-2 deal – but ultimately, no. I’m projecting the same ceiling for guys in the 3rd-to-12th-overall range. No need to move.
BLH: No, I wouldn’t. I do like Keith’s idea though. The M.O. in Edmonton is draft and develop and removing half of your picks to move up and get a player that might not be any better than the guy you take at 8th overall, doesn’t make sense to me. There should be enough players around 86th and 100th that interest me too. So, no. I wouldn’t do that trade.
Question #6: Who, in your opinion, is the most underrated player? The most overrated player?
Max: My pick for most underrated would be Domenick Fensore. He’s a 5’7” defenseman with high caliber offensive tools. A top-5 skater that defend both sides of the ice. My pick for most overrated would be Vasili Podkolzin. He failed to produce in Russia’s lower leagues while other less-known prospects thrived. A top-10 or even top-15 pick should be owning the MHL.
Keith: If we’re speaking in terms of the entire draft class, then Simon Holmstrom would be my most underrated. Really skilled winger. Good playmaking IQ, and did a lot down the stretch that showed a return to his dominant form. The most overrated would be Arthur Kaliyev. The kid can score like nobody’s business. It’s a beautiful shot, and it’s really something fun to watch. But that’s it. I see no compete. I see no hustle. For a kid who’s 6’2” – 190, I see no checking. It’s incredibly frustrating. Do I think he’s a first-round talent? Absolutely. But a late first-rounder. Anyone telling you he’s a top-10 pick lives in a padded cell.
BLH: My most underrated player might be Anttoni Honka. This guy has got some real talent but has disappeared off of scouts’ radars due to a really tough season he’s had. At the beginning of the year, I had him as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. Honka reminds me of Sergei Gonchar so much in his ability to stay cool under pressure. His offensive game is really good and he can thread a needle as well as any other prospect in this draft I feel. Some people might say he looks lazy on the ice, but I just find he’s just so collected it appears that he doesn’t care. I think that some scouts are scared off of him due to his brother Julius’ inability to develop into the player he was expected to. Some team is going to get a good player later on in the draft here, book it.
The other guy who’s being underrated is Vasili Podkolzin. He might not be putting up very much on the scoresheet, but make no bones about it, the Russian Hockey Federation doesn’t push its young players to play at higher levels often and Podkolzin is getting just that from them. He’s special. You try traveling as much as this guy has over the season and still maintain a high degree of production. You’ll see, once he’s settled in one spot for a year, he’ll start to tear things up.
Question #7: Final question… We’ll do one last armchair GM scenario. What kind of deal would you be asking for in return for Jesse Puljujarvi?
Max: The ask would probably be a high pick in his draft and an NHL-ready prospect. You’re taking a chance that he just needed a change of scenery and could look like a real fool if he ends up overperforming.
Keith: Realistically, a 1-1-and-1 – as in: a player, a prospect, and a pick. But, I think the trade market has soured a bit on JP. While there are teams that likely have interest, they probably also have that lingering concern of “is he another Yakupov?” So, a 1-for-2 would be nice, and realistic. Let’s say, for example, if they made a deal with the Los Angeles Kings, it might look like: Jesse Puljujarvi for Alec Martinez or Tyler Toffoli + 64th-overall pick.
BLH: My feeling is that he’s right on the cusp of breaking out. The double hip surgery might slow down the beginning of his season, but I’d be willing to bet that he’ll be producing in the 2nd half and teams are cognizant of that. They’re aware of how young he still is and how the Oilers management, coaching, and playing staff have treated him, and they’ll try to fleece Ken Holland, but I can’t see him falling for it.
There are two trade scenarios for me,
- The “futures” ask, meaning picks/prospects.
- The “help now” ask, meaning an NHL player.
So for scenario “A”, I’m asking looking for the kind of prospect that will even out the scales in the case that Puljujarvi does turn things around. I’m not sure if we’re talking about an Eeli Tolvanen here, a Drake Batherson/Filip Chlapik, or possibly a bigger deal that would bring a Nolan Patrick to Edmonton. Roslovic out of Winnipeg is an interesting option as well. But something in that range. Gotta play hardball in a deal like this.
In scenario “B”, I’d look at oft-maligned players. Maybe guys who are on the outs with their current organization. Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Jason Zucker are names that come to mind immediately. There are also teams that need to shed salary badly, so what about a Tyler Johnson or Nazem Kadri trade?
Be sure to follow both Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@keithfries) on Twitter and tune into the NHL Entry Draft, this weekend, and have a cold one on us. Or… 8 cold ones. Cheers!
