BLH on Down Goes Brown’s Off-Season Plan for the Edmonton Oilers

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Recently, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe was asked what he’d do with the Edmonton Oilers’ offseason. This is what he said he’d do if he were the GM of the club,

What’s the plan?

The first step is to trade McDavid to the Maple Leafs clear some cap space. A James Neal buyout saves us almost $4 million for the next two years. Mikko Koskinen could be another, although we might be able to use a pick to flip him to a team that will eat his final year. That’s going to be tough this year given the churn we’re expecting to see due to teams wanting to get down to one goalie for expansion, so it probably ends up being a buyout. That adds up to almost $7 million saved for next year.

BLH’s Thoughts: I support this but I’d hope there’s an appetite to explore other options thus making a double buy-out the last thing they’d do. I do like adding that $7M in cap space though.

Let’s look at the UFAs. I certainly don’t want to make any sort of big commitment to Mike Smith, who had a great year but just turned 39. If he wants to come back for one year at a slight raise over what he made this year, we can do that, but I’m not going much higher on the cap and certainly not to multiple years. Similarly, I’m willing to bring back Tyson Barrie on a reasonable deal, but if he can cash in elsewhere we’ll let him. I’d like to have Adam Larsson back at a number starting with a four. If I can do that, I actually don’t hate my blue line going forward, especially if Oscar Klefbom is back and Evan Bouchard is ready.

BLH’s Thoughts: No mention of Ethan Bear here. If Klefbom is good to go AND Barrie decides to return for a reasonable price ($5.5M/yr-ish), the Oilers could have their best blueline group in decades.

Nurse/Barrie
Klefbom/Larsson
Bear/Bouchard

I think the number getting tossed around for Mike Smith is $2.5M + bonuses. That would be a million dollar raise for the 39yr old netminder and if he plays like he did this past year, that would be a bargain. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a tough one. He’s been here for a decade and we want to keep him, but we’re watching our cap carefully. I’d like him to stick around for less money, but that’s almost unheard of for guys who are still in their 20s. I’m probably willing to stay at his current $6 million if we can keep the term reasonable, which will make the contract manageable in terms of future trade options if we need to bail. But if he wants to cash in on a long-term deal, which is his right, we’ll wish him the best and invite him to circle back if the market doesn’t work out the way he’d like. I’d also see if I could bribe Seattle to take Zack Kassian’s contract off my hands, and I’d give up a pick to do it, although I realize it may be a tough sell.

BLH’s Thoughts: I’d heard a couple months ago that Seattle liked Kassian but as DGB says here, it would be a challenge. But imagine if Ken Holland did manage to find a way to get Seattle to take Kass’ full ticket… That’s $4M on top of the $7M from the buyouts freed up in cap space taking the available amount up to around $32M-ish (give or take a mill-). 

If things have worked out, I now need a goalie, maybe one defenseman and at least two top-six forwards, and I have anywhere from $17 to $26 million to work with. I’m going to see how the goaltending market plays out with Seattle, but I want a veteran I can trust for two or three years. The two Coyotes goalies are a nice target, especially if they’d trade Darcy Kuemper. Maybe Petr Mrazek in free agency. I’d at least ask about Robin Lehner, who has four years left, but I’m not going more than three years on anyone else, because goalies.

BLH’s Thoughts: From the sounds of what they’re saying in Edmonton, the Oilers might’ve softened their stance on Arizona’s goalies due to health concerns. Mrazek has a history with Holland from their time in Detroit and there were some rumblings this season that Edmonton inquired to his availability. 

Robin Lehner would be a dreamy addition, wouldn’t it? I can’t see the Golden Knights moving him unless the Oilers are overpaying. Now, Marc-Andre Fleury is another story. Holland was in talks with Vegas this summer when the relationship between the Golden Knights and Fleury was a tad rocky and now with only a year left on his deal, that’s something I could see being re-visited. To go with Smith and Stalock for the year and then add in Fleury at the deadline would be a very savvy trade. 

From there, it’s time to get aggressive on the trade market. My owner wants to win now, and so does Connor McDavid, so I’m not afraid to move futures. My first is definitely in play, as are other picks and any prospect who’s not already slotted into next year’s lineup. I want to be in on any big name who hits the market due to cap constraints or expansion angst. I’ll work with Ron Francis on any “pick this guy for us” deals if any big names sneak onto unprotected lists.

Then comes free agency, and with all my cap space I’m … sitting it out. At least at first. Look, unless Alex Ovechkin decides he wants to break Wayne Gretzky’s record in his backyard, I’m not going to sign any deals I won’t regret. Instead, I’m going to wait a few days and see if some value emerges. And then I’m going to pocket at least a few million in cap space and wait even longer. After a week or so, I’m going to make a list of the best forwards out there. I’m talking the Mike Hoffmans of 2021 (which might include Mike Hoffman). I’m calling each of those guys and saying “Hey, sorry the market didn’t work out the way you’d hoped. Want to come to Edmonton and play with an MVP, put up the best stats of your life, and then try again in a year or two?” I feel like that should be a strong pitch to guys, as long as I’ve left myself some room to work with.

BLH’s Thoughts: With all of this hypothetical cap room opening up, Ovechkin is a pipe dream but what if for one season Holland could convince him to come to Edmonton to play along side McDavid and Draisaitl for the same money he earned in Washington last year? 

Hoffman is the kind of guy I’d wait on too. Others like Tatar and Schwartz, I’d try to get done as fast as possible though. I feel like those players could be had at a very fair price point and they’d be quality additions to the club. 

However, I wouldn’t be down for playing games. The Oilers’ depth scoring needs desperate attention and I’d move on quickly to the Blake Colemans and Barclay Goodrows because there’s a glorious chance that top-six options could become available closer to the trade deadline.

Then there’s the fact that Connor and Leon can run their own lines during the regular season and they’ve got known assets in Pulju and Yamo as wingers who will produce with those centers. 

Add to that the Dylan Holloways, Tyler Bensons, Rafa Lavoies waiting on the farm, and the Oilers are in a decent position on the wings. 

Last point: Unless I get a bunch of great opportunities I can’t pass up, I want to go into the season with a couple million in cap space, and earmark it toward the deadline. That $2 million will have the power of six or seven by the deadline, so I’m making it known I want to be in on this year’s Taylor Hall or Mark Stone. Even as a rental, I want to trust my rebuilt roster to earn a playoff spot and know I’m able to add a star down the stretch.

BLH’s Thoughts: 100%. There are a shit ton of elite veterans who’s contracts are expiring next summer. Check it out, 

  • Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Phil Kessel, Joe Pavelski, Patrice Bergeron, Alexander Radulov, Dustin Brown, David Perron, Cal Clutterbuck, and Ryan Reaves. 

Now, if Holland wants to go with some younger options and is willing to sacrifice futures, here’s a list of some skaters under the age of 31,

  • Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, Alexander Barkov, Tomas Hertl, Mika Zibanejad, Sean Couturier, Rickard Rakell, Robby Fabbri, and Valeri Nichushkin.

And those are just the forwards! 

So, seeing as the Pacific Division is going to be Vegas’ and Edmonton’s to lose,  keeping some of his powder dry for some all-star additions at the deadline will come in extremely handy next season. 

As it stands, some are calling this offseason the most important in club history. If Holland can open up some extra room under the cap by getting rid of some bad contracts and use those funds to bolster the team’s netminding and depth scoring, it would be hard for me to say that they aren’t Cup contenders. 

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

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Beer League Hero Written by:

I'm the Beer League Hero! I am from Camrose, Alberta but I make my home in Taipei City, Taiwan. I've been through the ups and downs and the highs and the Lowes, the Bonsignores and the McDavids, the Sathers and the Eakins but I'll never leave my Oilers, no matter what! They're with me until the end and then some. GO OILERS GO!