BLH on ESPN’s Three Keys to the Edmonton Oilers Offseason

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From ESPN

Greg Wyshynski and Emily Kaplan wrote the following with regards to what the Edmonton Oilers need to focus on this summer,

The Biz vs. The NugeRyan Nugent-Hopkins is set to hit unrestricted free agency this offseason, finishing up a contract that averages $6 million annually. He’s an essential penalty killer, plays on their top power-play unit and is the kind of complementary player that a winning team needs. What does a new deal for him look like for the Oilers, both in money and term? Would someone else in need of a center be willing to go bigger for the 27-year-old, considering the flat cap?

Fix the back end. The Oilers have two key unrestricted free agents on their blue line in Tyson Barrie and Adam Larsson. Barrie, 29, signed a one-year “show me” deal with the Oilers, and ended up leading the NHL in scoring for defensemen (48 points). An extension would have to be richer and with more term, and that might not make sense with young puck-mover Evan Bouchard waiting for his turn. Larsson, 28, makes a bit more sense to extend as a stay-at-home defenseman. With Oscar Klefbom returning from injury next season, the Oilers could have a nice group on the back end, as players like Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear continue to improve.

The other question is Mike Smith, who is also a UFA. Mikko Koskinen — signed for another season at $4.5 million with trade protection! — was a sub-replacement-level goalie. Smith turns 40 next March. They could get another defiantly effective regular season from him, but he hasn’t won a playoff series since 2012. The Oil have some decisions to make in goal.

Be all-in. The Oilers have been nibbling around the edges under GM Ken Holland. Barrie was a one-year bargain that worked, Kyle Turris was not. They had a quiet trade deadline outside of acquiring Dmitry Kulikov. “I don’t know that you can be all-in every year,” said Holland. He was saddled with a roster that had little depth but a lot of contract bloat when he took over. In its current incarnation, that roster is an inferior group that does a disservice to the team’s star players: Without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have just a 44.3% expected goals percentage.

The Jets had two distinct advantages heading into this series: in goal and in their depth at forward. Until the latter isn’t an annual issue for the Oilers, they’re not going to contend for anything. Get Connor and Leon the help they need. (link)

BLH’s Thoughts: My feeling with the Nuge business is that it’s going to come down to what the player wants most. Is he happy to play a complimentary role on an emerging team in a city that he’s happy to live in and loved unconditionally or at 28 years old, would he like to live a little and broaden his horizons? Maybe head elsewhere and be a no.1 center and counted upon heavily? There are numerous teams that’ll be looking for a player of his ilk and would be willing to pay top dollar for him. Something I’m not 100% sure the Oilers are willing to do. In fact, I reckon they’d like to get him on a hometown discount if possible. 

The goaltending and the defense group are going to be addressed, just not to the extent to forwards are. 

The interest in Darcy Kuemper has cooled I believe but Elvis Merzlikins and Chris Driedger are at the top of Edmonton’s shopping list. It looks like the Oilers are looking to bring in a younger netminder that is “age appropriate” for this group and possibly have him mentor under Mike Smith IF he’s willing to return. 

You’re probably asking yourself, “What about Mikko Koskinen then?” and if I were a betting man, I’d say there’s a very good chance he’s plying his trade elsewhere. That could be via a buyout or a trade and I think it’s 50/50 on those options if my info is on point. 

As for the D, I’ve got the odds on Oscar Klefbom starting the season in Edmonton at around 20%. Maybe the Oilers take a page out of Tampa’s book with him and he comes back during the playoffs if he’s not ready to go out of the gate. 

That means Ken Holland will need to help himself to a GOOD 2nd pair dman. Not an average one or one that has potential, a GOOD one. Especially if Klefbom isn’t returning during the year or possibly at all. I don’t have any names on hand at the moment but I like Alec Martinez. At 33yrs old, he put up 32 points on Vegas’ blueline and I can’t see him getting $4M per year on a new deal at this point in his career and with the NHL economy in the shape it’s in. 

What I’m a little bit more concerned with is what Holland is going to do with Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, and Kris Russell as they all have another year on their deals plus all three are not 2nd pair dmen. 

I’m intrigued as to what management is going to do on the right side of the defense too. Evan Bouchard is ready to go. He’s over-marinated at this point. There’s a very good chance Adam Larsson comes back as the Oilers would be lost in their own end without The Iron Swede. 

We’re left with Ethan Bear and maybe Tyson Barrie too. Personally, I think the league’s highest scoring defender last year is outtie 5000 and he’s earned it but I wouldn’t put it past Ken Holland convincing him to stay on a team-friendly deal. He did it countless times in Detroit during the glory years there and as a born salesman, it wouldn’t shock me if Barrie returned for at least another year which would definitely impact what the team does with Ethan Bear. 

Mark Spector said on Oilers Now yesterday that Bear lost his job during the OT loss to Winnipeg two nights ago. Hearing that can’t be promising for Bear as he’d already pissed the coaching staff off earlier in the season, then got hurt, and then took a little while to get going again… I know there would be a lot of GMs in the NHL who’d have time for this promising defender but if Edmonton decided they wanted to cash in their chips on him and keep Barrie, I could see it and totally understand it. Those Jake DeBrusk for Bear whispers during the year weren’t for nothing… 

As for the team need to go “all-in”, it’s time. From here on forward, this club will be competitive in every aspect of the game, off-ice and on. They’ll have upwards of $25M in cap space and it’s going to be used to its full extent. Connor, Leon, Darnell, and Nuge have taken this team as far as they can on their own, Holland will be bringing in the troops now that he’s got the funds. I hope Oilers fans are getting ready…

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Beer League Hero Written by:

I'm the Beer League Hero! I am from Camrose, Alberta but I make my home in Taipei City, Taiwan. I've been through the ups and downs and the highs and the Lowes, the Bonsignores and the McDavids, the Sathers and the Eakins but I'll never leave my Oilers, no matter what! They're with me until the end and then some. GO OILERS GO!