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The Score
Pacific Division betting preview: Can anyone stop the Golden Knights?
- With implied odds of 73.7%, Vegas (-280) is a heavy favorite to win the Pacific. Rightfully so. They made the final four just a few months ago and by all accounts were a dominant team in the regular season… Almost the entire cast is returning, which means the Golden Knights are positioned nicely to win a poor division.
- I have a hard time believing the Oilers (+550) can give the Golden Knights a run for their money. Their top six are as potent as anyone’s and they have a lethal power play, but the list of positives ends there.
- Defensive play is almost certainly going to be a problem. It wasn’t a great group last season and they replaced Ethan Bear, a promising up-and-comer, and Adam Larsson, a stout in-zone defender, with Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci. The former is long past his best-before date and Ceci, simply put, is not very good.
- Put that weak blue line in front of questionable goaltending and it’s a recipe for disaster.
- Yes, Mike Smith was good last season. His track record in recent years isn’t, though, and the 39-year-old is a likely candidate to regress.
- Mikko Koskinen isn’t capable of carrying the load if and when that happens. This team is going to have a hard time outscoring its problems, which is saying something considering the Oilers have two of the best players in the league up front.
BLH’s Thoughts: What Todd Cordell (Hockeybuzz writer?) is forgetting about Vegas is that the heart of the team was ripped out this summer when the GM, who the players are not fond of AT ALL, moved future Hall-of-Famer Marc Andre Fleury and Ryan Reaves. What is this club’s identity and can it survive the inner turmoil that’s bubbling under?
Edmonton’s record vs. Vegas according to the league’s website is 5-5-1 since the Golden Misfits joined the NHL. That doesn’t “domination” to me and this year the Oilers are added more experience, better forwards, they chose Evan Bouchard over Ethan Bear, and they’ve got an emerging Jesse Puljujarvi ready to run roughshod through anybody dumb enough to get in front of him.
Who did Vegas add? Which pieces on that club are the Oilers supposed to be afraid of? If you’re asking me, I think this is the beginning of the end for an aging Golden Knights club and just the start for an Edmonton team who just happens to have the best 1-2 center duo in the league.
Edmonton Sun
OILERS NOTES: Yamamoto out after taking hit against Calgary
- Kailer Yamamoto won’t be playing against the Vancouver Canucks Thursday after the right-winger was checked by the Edmonton Oilers bench late in the Monday game against Calgary.
- possible concussion watch for Yamamoto, who has had a quiet camp.
- Turris, who has been playing on the fourth line with Devin Shore and Brendan Perlini for much of camp, will take Yamamoto’s spot on the second line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at centre and Zach Hyman on left-wing.
- McLeod, who has played some left-wing, appears to have been beaten out by Shore as the 4C, but Shore can also play left side, so maybe they play together down the road. McLeod could use a few wow moments after a lukewarm camp.
- If the Oilers don’t have Benson on their opening 23-man roster and put him waivers to send him to Bakersfield, you can expect Arizona, Detroit or Buffalo to possibly claim him.
- Kris Russell will play with Evan Bouchard against the Canucks.
- Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins could be the first Oiler PK pair, with Shore and maybe Warren Foegele as the second. Derek Ryan and Yamamoto would be in the picture, too.
BLH’s Thoughts: I think this is a showcase for Kyle Turris. If you were listening to Oilers Now yesterday morning and you can read between the lines, Bob Stauffer more or less made it known that the Chicago Blackhawks are shopping Brett Connolly. He threw out the idea of the Hawks retaining 50% of Connolly’s deal whilst taking back Kyle Turris or “perhaps Josh Archibald, who knows?”.
Connolly’s agent? Edmonton-based Gerry Johansson, somebody that Stauffer has a direct line to.
So it sounds to me like Johansson has reached out to Bob to get the word out that he’s looking to find a new home for his client.
Now, considering that Kailer Yamamoto is out with a possible concussion, I think there are concerns regarding his longevity. When he got started in the AHL he ran into some injury problems and now it’s happening in the NHL. Personally, I don’t think he’s cut out for top-six competition right now. He’s too small still and on numerous occasions already this preseason he’s been caught with some big hits…
If the Oilers brought in Connolly, they’d have a strong two-way 6’3″ winger who’s scored 10+ goals five times in his career with a high of 22 in 2018-19 and at $1.75M, he wouldn’t be a burden on the Oilers salary cap. Plus the analytics community couldn’t harp on Edmonton for picking him up because he hasn’t finished a year below 51% since 2012-13. Check his numbers out here.
Edmonton could move Connolly up and down the lineup as they pleased and if he performed well, the challenge of moving on from Zack Kassian next summer would be that much easier.
With all that in mind, do you trust Ken Holland to get Stan Bowman to trade him a player with retained salary included in the deal?
For what it’s worth, the Oilers have had interest in Connolly going back to the Chiarelli days.
Sportsnet (32 Thoughts)
- On Eichel: there is a real push to find a solution, because Eichel’s displaced disc can’t be allowed to just sit on the nerve… No one will go on record, but there is a growing belief there are teams willing to accept Eichel’s preferred disc replacement.
- It’s not Defcon 1 between Ottawa and Brady Tkachuk, but there’s a challenging philosophical disagreement. The Senators believe Tkachuk wants to be there long-term, and I don’t think they’re wrong. But Ottawa wants that commitment now and the winger is not ready to go seven or eight years.
- That salary-cap prediction also played a role in Elias Pettersson’s negotiations… There is some room to manoeuvre, but the cap is scheduled to go up $1M per year until the players repay what they owe the owners. Most predications are for the summer of 2025, when we could see a big jump.
- When it comes to Tomas Hertl, one of the questions San Jose must be asking itself is this: if the Sharks decide they need new blood, is anyone more capable of getting it in a trade than he is?
- Early-season prediction: Montreal takes a serious run at extending Nick Suzuki sooner, rather than later. No more offer-sheet games.
- I think Toronto lets things play out before making any decision on Morgan Rielly.
- I don’t think money was the deciding factor in Zach Hyman’s negotiation. It was trade/no-move protection, which will be something to watch with Rielly, too.
- …if there’s one player who piqued my interest, it was Calgary’s Oliver Kylington. But the Flames have a lot of defencemen, and Kylington is not waiver-exempt.
- The Flames and Johnny Gaudreau are wisely going to keep contract discussions private. However, it’s not like it’s hard to figure out what will satisfy both team and player.