This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!
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Cult of Hockey
On Corski and Fenski and Edmonton Oilers’ fourth lineski
- “I’ve been doing analytics way longer than a lot of these analytics people and mine are actually what happened in the game,” said Tippett, as reported by Post Media’s Robert Tychkowski. “We use way more analytics than people know, but they’re ones that actually matter.”
- “The NHL stats are just, let’s just say average at best. To me, they’re not useful.”
- “If you are being bombarded every night with Grade A chances, now I have a concern, but I go more on scoring chances and legitimate shots, not just pucks that are flipped at the net from the other end.”
- Corsi and Fenwick are at the very bottom of a pyramid that also includes shots on goal, scoring chances, high danger chances, and expected goals, to reference the package of “shot count” stats offered by one popular fancy stats source, Natural Stat Trick.
- One thing Tippett is absolutely right about: not all “Corski” are created equal. By that first-level metric of shots directed towards goal, a 65 footer from the point that doesn’t get through traffic counts just the same as a one-timer from the slot.
- Fact is that the Oilers have been ahead a whole lot more than they’ve been behind this early season. Make it 181 minutes with the lead, just 56 trailing. Such an imbalance is apt to filter down into the underlying numbers.
- …early analysis both by eye and by the numbers — Corski, Fenski, and the rest — suggest that Holland’s construction project is not yet complete.
BLH’s Thoughts: When I decide to dig into the fancies to answer a question about the Oilers or an individual player, I know that going into the endeavor I’m working with inferior numbers compared to what the teams are using. I also know that depending on the narrative, I can construct a story that supports my POV from those statistics and to be honest, that’s a pretty sad state of affairs because if a lowly sofa blogger like myself can do it, what about somebody who’s actually quite intelligent?
What I’m hoping is that with all the new tracking cameras in the arenas and the chips that’ve been installed within all of the players equipment, the public will have access to better advanced metrics and therefore be able to see things more akin to what the professionals are using. At the very least, it would make gambling a lot more interesting.
Now, with all that being said, I learned something new from Tippett’s avail. I learned he cares less about how many shots against his team takes on and more so that his team’s high danger chances are limited.
I was under the impression that a hockey coach would truly prefer to prevent the other team from getting any shots let alone low or mid-danger ones just to reduce the odds of being scored on. I thought if a team allowed a lot of shots, they were playing poorly defensively.
So, there ya go. It wouldn’t be a good day if you didn’t learn something new, would it?
Lowetide.ca
- The Edmonton Oilers lost a winnable game and there is lots to work on before Saturday. The 5-0-0 start buys the team some separation, so losing two points to a non-conference rival isn’t the end of the world.
- At some point the goalie position is going to need an upgrade. I think Mikko Koskinen can stop enough pucks to stay in the league, but don’t believe he’ll be stopping them for Edmonton in the playoffs.
- For his Oilers career, Mike Smith’s save percentage is .912. Mikko Koskinen’s is .909. One guy has a contract for next season, the other does not have a contract for 2022-23.
- I do believe Edmonton will add a stronger option by the deadline.
- Koskinen didn’t look sharp and the Flyers have several impressive shooters, that’s a recipe for trouble. Smith has the two-year deal and the lower cap hit, so Koskinen makes more sense as the deadline exit. I don’t think there’s a giant gap between the two goalies, although Dave Tippett likes Smith and that’s probably reason enough to choose him over the Finn. Coaches are people, too.
- Koskinen was not sharp, but the Oilers did miss some great chances, too. If you can trade for a goalie upgrade today, then go for it. I don’t think it’s out there, and Koskinen will have a cap hit of $1 million or so at the deadline.
- The third pair needs some help and I would slide Tyler Benson on to the fourth line Saturday. The problem is he doesn’t play center, and Devin Shore got slammed 0-7 shots at five on five last night. Calling Ryan McLeod?
- I know the Yamamoto demotion is coming, doesn’t mean I have to like it.
BLH’s Thoughts: So this is how it’s going to go every time the Oilers lose and Smith or Koskinen let in a shit goal or two. Not a mention of how many chances the Oilers big guns failed to capitalize on some golden chances because they do enough heavy lifting as it is.
It’s funny, I’ve been waiting for Yamo to get demoted for over 30 games going back to last season and including the playoffs and Dave Tippett has done the opposite with Killer.
If I’m not mistaken, early season trades are not something uncommon to Ken Holland. When he acquired Igor Larionov in Detroit , that was a December (2000) trade, but that said, he’s more likely to make a deal before the season starts or in February or March.
So, while there’s a slight chance the Oilers could make an early trade, I don’t think it’ll come. The odds are on him keeping his powder dry until salaries are cheaper and easier to move and that would be closer to the trade deadline on March 21st, 2022 this season.
This is the team we’re going to see for a few months yet, so get comfortable with all of its warts.
The Daily Goal Horn
- If the Blackhawks do let Colliton go, Rick Tocchet seems like a prime candidate to take over as the new bench boss. The former NHL power forward took the reins as Arizona’s head coach back in 2017. He amassed a 125-131-34 record with the Coyotes during his tenure.
- Many names are being bandied about as the next Blackhawks GM. Veteran executive Jeremy Rutherford is still highly regarded and could get the nod. Some suggested that former Blackhawk Eddie Olcyck be given a chance at guiding the franchise back to respectability. Others feel Kevin Weekes has been long overlooked for such a position as well.
- However, considering where the Blackhawks are on the ice, one name stands out. Jeff Gorton, guided the New York Rangers from an aging team through a rebuild. He restocked a barren prospect pipeline into one of the best in the NHL in just a few years (lottery picks aside).
