July 13, 2021 /

Does the Keith Acquisition Make a James Neal Buyout Easier to Execute Now?

Coming from an Edmonton Oilers point of view, BLH provides you with excerpts from the latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation from all of the internet’s best sites including Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, Sportsnet, The Athletic, TSN and more!

From the Edmonton Sun (Jim Matheson)

Oilers trade for Blackhawks Duncan Keith to strengthen blueline

The Oilers are giving up defenceman Caleb Jones, who would likely have been left unprotected in the Seattle expansion draft, and a third-round 2022 draft pick

Now, the Oilers might buy out Koskinen even as they try and re-sign Mike Smith to a new deal.

Keith’s game isn’t what it used to be, but he’s long been one of the NHL’s fittest players, much like Oilers goalie Mike Smith, so his birth certificate might not be a factor. Plus, he won’t be the first pairing left defenceman with the Oilers. Darnell Nurse has that role, and Keith can slide in with Adam Larsson in a second pairing when he likely re-signs. He’s an unrestricted free-agent.

The addition of Keith gives the Oilers what they sorely need. A player who has won before, and not just once. Three times with the Blackhawks. In 2015 he was also the playoff MVP and won the Conn Smythe trophy.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Darnell Nurse will be giving this a two-thumbs up.

BLH’s Thoughts: That last point is the real kicker. The fans may disagree with the addition of Keith, but this trade isn’t for the fans, it’s for the club and no matter what you say or how many pretty graphics and spreadsheets you throw at me, there’s not one that will convince me that the Oilers aren’t better today than they were yesterday. 

From The Athletic (Daniel Nugent-Bowman)

‘This isn’t an exact science’: How Ken Holland’s overpay for Duncan Keith limits the Oilers’ offseason options

Oilers general manager Ken Holland had the hammer this offseason and didn’t use it to his advantage.

The Oilers were never going to get Keith easily. This is a Chicago franchise icon and its minutes-played leader in 2021. The Oilers were always going to have to give up something.

It’s the money the Oilers took on in the deal — roughly $4.5 million for next season — that’s perplexing and could hinder the Oilers in their offseason planning.

Not only that, but there are real concerns about Keith’s on-ice abilities. He turns 38 on Friday and his advanced metrics haven’t been good for quite some time.

His expected goals percentage hasn’t cracked 50 percent since 2016, Chicago hasn’t outscored opponents with Keith on the ice since 2017, and the team has been out-attempted with Keith skating in each of the past three seasons.

Of course, Keith hasn’t played for a quality team during that time. Chicago has qualified for the playoffs just once in the past four seasons…

A team source said earlier this month that acquiring Keith and his full cap hit would all but preclude the Oilers from retaining Larsson and Tyson Barrie. Holland disputed this Monday, saying he still has money set aside for Larsson’s next contract.

Holland has roughly $10 million in cap space for next season after Keith comes aboard and Jones heads to Chicago, according to CapFriendly.

There isn’t nearly as much money to work with after bringing in Keith.

BLH’s Thoughts: The tone of that post makes me feel like DNB was a tad upset at how Holland reacted to his question about the Oilers not getting Chicago to retain salary on the trade. The Stanley Cup winning GM really put the young journo on the spot for really the first time since he’s starting covering the Oilers and it was kind of uncomfortable to listen to. Although, it could be said that some of the replies Holland gave in that media avail were cringeworthy as well. 

I’m paraphrasing here, but championship winning GMs like Ken Holland, Brian Burke, or Lou Lamoriello have said in the past that if there’s a guy out there you think your team needs, you go get him and deal with the rest later. If that’s a player you think will push your team to the next level, pay the price and move things around down the line. 

Today, the Oilers are a better club than they were yesterday. Fact. They had the cap room to make this trade, so why not? If there’s a feeling that the free agency market is going to favor the GMs this year and Ken Holland thinks that he’ll be able to fill some of the holes in his lineup at somewhat of a reduced rate, it’s his responsibility to swing when the pitch presents itself. 

From Sportsnet (Mark Spector)

Hip to hate Oilers’ Keith deal, but the veteran defenceman can still play

No salary was retained by the Chicago Blackhawks, though a pertinent aspect of this deal is that the Oilers only owe Keith $3.6 million in actual salary over the next two seasons, despite a remaining cap hit of $5.5 million annually for two seasons.

The Blackhawks win the deal financially. Edmonton, in trouble with Oscar Klefbom’s injury situation, makes this trade to win on the ice right now.

I get it — fans could care less about owner Daryl Katz saving some cash. But managers — and owners who have lost millions these last two seasons — care a lot. And that salary savings may make a Neal buyout more tenable. If that happens, there’s the cap space fans wanted.

If you are someone who decried the fact that Holland wasn’t “all in” at the last trade deadline — that he must be “all in” as long as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are in their prime — then you should like this deal.

One more thing: If not Keith, Holland needed to sign a second-pairing LD as a free agent. That would come with much more term than two years.

Finally, you have to remember that building a team in Edmonton isn’t the same as in other markets. When you get a player like Keith — or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — who wants to be here, that has major value.

Keith wants to be here, and Edmonton needs experience, some winning pedigree, and to fill a big hole on left defence.

BLH’s Thoughts: Those are all fantastic points made by Spector. I don’t even know if anything more has to be said, to be honest. 

I guess if I had to add anything, I’d say that the most important part of what Spector said there relates to the potential buyouts of James Neal and/or Mikko Koskinen. Even though Darryl Katz has always been committed to giving this club everything he could financially, losing $50M last year hurts and maybe his appetite for a buyout or two isn’t there. 

For me, the money doesn’t bother me. I think the club will find a way to open up some cap space elsewhere so that they can carry on with an offseason that I believe will be game-changing for the franchise. Maybe that means moving Kassian for a pick or using someone like Tyler Benson in a trade to get the other team to eat salary on a player Edmonton likes.

Now, If this deal works out for Edmonton, there’ll be a shit ton of people with egg on their face and even more who’ll owe Ken Holland an apology. If it doesn’t, Holland will have to wear it. 

From Twitter

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CategoriesArmchair GM Beer League Hero Edmonton Oilers NHL Rumors

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Beer League Hero Written by:

I'm the Beer League Hero! I am from Camrose, Alberta but I make my home in Taipei City, Taiwan. I've been through the ups and downs and the highs and the Lowes, the Bonsignores and the McDavids, the Sathers and the Eakins but I'll never leave my Oilers, no matter what! They're with me until the end and then some. GO OILERS GO!