Yesterday, I was listening to Jason Gregor talk about the Oilers defense and he questioned what the difference was between Adam Larsson and Kris Russell? They both make $4M (or more) per year but what is it that separates the two defenders?
Now, this question is coming off a putrid performance from the Oilers defense as a whole vs. Vegas, so perhaps there’s a bit of recency bias going on there. Then again, Larsson is not having a great year. I suspect he’s been playing through an injury because he’s not as bad as his traditional numbers (aka +/-) may suggest.
So speaking of the numbers. I went to naturalstattrick.com and I pulled up Larsson’s and Russell’s fancies from 2016-17 to now and to no surprise, Larsson dominates the categories as he’s the better of the two.
What I looked at to be more specific were the 5×5 numbers in relative form. I wanted to see what the two dmen looked at in relation to their teammates when on the ice at even strength.
| Name | GP | TOI | TOI/GP | CF/60 | CA/60 | CF% | FF/60 | FA/60 | FF% |
| Larsson | 214 | 3968 | 18:54 | 1.26 | -0.8 | 0.92 | 1.91 | 0.57 | 0.8 |
| Russell | 208 | 3589 | 17:26 | -6.18 | 4.07 | -4.55 | -5.44 | -0.39 | -3.05 |
So the shot share is definitely in Larsson’s court here. Nothing new here for Russell, we all know the fancies do not agree with his style of play but I can’t imagine this sort of evidence treats him well in contract negotiations outside of the ones with Don Sweeney, Brad Treliving, or Peter Chiarelli.
| Name | SF/60 | SA/60 | SF% | GF/60 | GA/60 | GF% | SCF/60 | SCA/60 | SCF% |
| Larsson | 1.59 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 0.19 | 0.22 | -0.26 | 0.96 | -0.27 | 1.15 |
| Russell | -4.14 | -0.66 | -2.91 | -0.37 | -0.22 | -1.63 | -1.99 | 1.24 | -3.02 |
Here we see some more of the shot share, the goal share, and the scoring chance share. Kris Russell comes out on top in the shots against/60 and the goals against/60 but for a two-way defender, he’s sure coming out looking like a defensive defender. Neither player are great offensively, I think that is pretty clear but at least Larsson is moving the puck in the right direction for the most part… According to the numbers.
For the next three tables, please refer to this graphic I screen capped. It will give you an idea of what the high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger areas are on the ice.
| Name | HDCF/60 | HDCA/60 | HDCF% | HDGF/60 | HDGA/60 | HDGF% |
| Larsson | 1.26 | 0.28 | 2.18 | 0.3 | 0.11 | 3.86 |
| Russell | -1.11 | -0.22 | -2.04 | -0.25 | -0.07 | -3.7 |
These numbers show the share of “high-danger scoring chances” for each player. They tell us how good a player is at creating/stopping changes from the high-danger areas on the ice. I’d say the Swede wins this category going away and that’s probably due to his ability to simply remove a player from that area of the ice effectively.
| Name | MDCF/60 | MDCA/60 | MDCF% | MDGF/60 | MDGA/60 | MDGF% |
| Larsson | -0.4 | -0.74 | 0.4 | -0.12 | 0.27 | -11.45 |
| Russell | -1.16 | 1.94 | -3.71 | -0.06 | -0.16 | 3.12 |
Here are the “Medium-Danger Scoring Chances” numbers. We finally get some competition as the six columns are split down the middle. Larsson gets the shot share and Russell gets the goal shares.
This is interesting because that last number, medium-danger goals for percentage, is wildly different. What it tells me, and I could have it wrong, is that Adam Larsson is on the ice for a hell of a lot of goals against coming from the med. danger areas while Kris Russell is on for quite a bit more for.
| Name | LDCF/60 | LDCA/60 | LDCF% | LDGF/60 | LDGA/60 | LDGF% |
| Larsson | 0.48 | -0.51 | 0.71 | -0.01 | -0.11 | 5.67 |
| Russell | -4.89 | 2.61 | -5.31 | -0.11 | -0.01 | -4.43 |
Running away with it again is Adam Larsson.
If you’re looking for a glossary of the advanced stats metrics, go here.
I would think that a guy like Jason Gregor would be able to know by watching the two defenders play why one is played on the first pairing and one isn’t but even Lowetide posted (paywall, click here if you need a subscription) some metrics at the Athletic today from PuckIQ.com that further reflect why Larsson is the better player for the Oilers.
“Dangerous Fenwick, (DFF)” described as “a weighted shot metric that takes into account the distance and type of unblocked shot at the net and applies the probability of that type of shot becoming a goal.”
(We would like the relative form of this number to be in the positives.)
- Larsson against elites ’16-17: 48.70 Dangerous Fenwick, 34.8 percent of overall time on ice, DFF Rel: 0.40
- Larsson against elites ’17-18: 48.80 Dangerous Fenwick, 35.2 percent of overall time on ice, DFF Rel: 1.30
- Larsson against elites ’18-19: 43.80 Dangerous Fenwick, 35.0 percent of overall time on ice, DFF Rel: 0.00
Here is how Larsson compares to his team
- Adam Larsson against elites ’18-19: 43.80 Dangerous Fenwick, 35.0 percent of overall time on ice, DFF RelC%: +0.00
- Oscar Klefbom against elites ’18-19: 44.40 Dangerous Fenwick, 35.0 percent of overall time on ice, DFF RelC%: -0.40
- Kris Russell against elites ’18-19: 41.50 Dangerous Fenwick, 30.8 percent of overall time on ice, DFF RelC%: -3.90
- Darnell Nurse against elites ’18-19: 40.10 Dangerous Fenwick, 34.1 percent of overall time on ice, DFF RelC%: -6.70
What I’m reading here is that if Nurse and Russell are out on the ice vs. the other team’s “elites”, or best players, the Oilers are fooked.
So what is it that separates Adam Larsson from Kris Russell? He’s a better player. Flat out.
Don’t bother heading to PuckIQ.com. They haven’t updated their website in two years and despite LT saying they’ll be updating the site with this year’s numbers, I’ll believe it when I see it. Lowetide gets his stats direct from the teet.
Tyler Benson, AHL Rookie of the Year?
There’s a lot of positive energy coming out of Bakersfield this year. It’s been a great season so far and part of that is due to the emergence of Tyler Benson, the one Oilers prospect who wasn’t rushed and was properly taken care of during his injury troubles in junior.
At the moment, Benson is trailing Alex Barre-Boulet (SYR) by one point for the AHL lead in rookie scoring (Benson has 55pts and ABB has 56pts) and there’s a solid chance that the former Vancouver Giant will take home the Red Garrett Memorial Trophy for AHL rookie of the year.
But I want to temper expectations. Just because a player wins that award doesn’t mean they go on to great things at the NHL level. In fact, it might just mean they go on to be a mediocre-to-good hockey player in the best league the world has to offer.
Check out the winners for the last decade and see for yourself.
| 2017-2018 |  Mason Appleton (F) |
1996 | Green Bay, WI, USA | Winnipeg Jets (2015) | |
| 2016-2017 | Danny O’Regan (F) |
1994 | Berlin, GER | San Jose Sharks (2012) | |
| 2015-2016 | Tie | Frank Vatrano (F) |
1994 | East Longmeadow, MA, USA | |
| Tie |  Mikko Rantanen (F) |
1996 | Nousiainen, FIN | Colorado Avalanche (2015) | |
| 2014-2015 |  Matt Murray (G) |
1994 | Thunder Bay, ON, CAN | Pittsburgh Penguins (2012) | |
| 2013-2014 | Curtis McKenzie (F) |
1991 | Golden, BC, CAN | Dallas Stars (2009) | |
| 2012-2013 | Tyler Toffoli (F) |
1992 | Scarborough, ON, CAN | Los Angeles Kings (2010) | |
| 2011-2012 | Cory Conacher (F) |
1989 | Burlington, ON, CAN | ||
| 2010-2011 | Luke Adam (F) |
1990 | St. John’s, NL, CAN | Buffalo Sabres (2008) | |
| 2009-2010 | Tyler Ennis (F) |
1989 | Edmonton, AB, CAN | Buffalo Sabres (2008) | |
| 2008-2009 | Nathan Gerbe (F) |
1987 | Oxford, MI, USA | Buffalo Sabres (2005) |
There are few great players on that list but more fair-to-middling ones, right?
Man, I thought Luke Adam was going to be a player back in the day. Too bad for him. How about those Sabres, eh?
Now that’s not to say Tyler Benson can’t be the next Tyler Ennis, who was a great player earlier in his career, or another Daniel Briere, who won the award way back in 1998. I’m just saying, let’s keep the expectations cool on this young man if he does happen to win some awards down in the “A” this year.
