Yesterday, during the intermission of the Blues/Jets game, uber-insider Elliotte Friedman said that Mark Hunter had completed his 2nd interview for the General Manager’s position.
Just before we get into this, I need to comment on the playoffs.
I’m not one that cheers for teams because they’re in Canada. I cheer for the Oilers and when they’re not playing in the post-season, I cheer for whatever team I find most entertaining. I’m pretty sure I cheer against the Canadian teams because I think that the “Cup has to come back to Canada” narrative is daft.
So I was happy to see Calgary lose, I was hoping St. Louis would win because I love Pat Maroon, and I’ll be putting my Bruins hat on later today and going for Boston to beat Toronto.
The Stanley Cup only deserves to be in one place in Canada and that’s Edmonton 🙂
Back to the GM talk now…
With the news that Pat Verbeek and Mike Gillis, in addition to Hunter, have been interviewed bodes well for the Oilers. The organization is actually going about this in the right manner.
Looks like Ken Holland is out of the picture and we’re still waiting on news of any other candidates (Ron Hextall, Bill Guerin, and Mike Futa for example) getting an interview. Oh, and don’t forget, Kelly McCrimmon is still a name lingering about.
My feeling is that Seattle is probably McCrimmon’s destination given his experience getting Vegas off the ground and the May 1st “soft” deadline that Darren Dreger said the Oilers have set in place. Unless the wheels fall off for Vegas, I’m not sure he’ll be made available to interview before the first of next month.
Oilers boss, Bob Nicholson into 2nd interviews with GM candidates. Belief is, he may do a 3rd with top guys and is hoping to hire his man around May 1.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) April 21, 2019
Having it all wrapped up by the first of May would give the new management team time to get briefed on the draft, free agents, ongoing trade negotiations, etc. I like that they’ve set this line in the sand.
Funny, Eklund had an E5 out today! Mark Hunter will be the Oilers new GM and his coach will be DJ Smith.
I contacted a source directly connected to the team about this and the answer was a very direct, “NO!”
I think it’s natural to connect the GM to a coach he’s worked with in the past though. Hunter/Smith, McCrimmon/Rocky Thompson, Verbeek/Benoit Groulx, Gillis/Vigneault (before being hired by Philly)…
According to Sportsnet, Smith is being groomed to be an NHL head coach and his mentor is none other than Mike Babcock.
Buffalo Sabres blog, Die by the Blade, did a little profile on Smith here if you’re curious as to why his name is being brought up.
I’m still awaiting answers from two more sources on the topic mind you, so we’ll see where that goes. I do believe Jeff Marek and Friedman were pontificating on Edmonton bringing in that exact combo in their most recent podcast though.
Some folks are of the belief that Hunter is a very good player evaluator. Someone who can project a player’s potential quite well. I would question that at the NHL level because I don’t feel he did an extraordinary job at the draft the three years he was with Toronto.
In that trifecta of seasons, the Maple Leafs had 28 draft picks and the number of players they might’ve hit on I can count on one hand.
Anyone with Bob McKenzie’s list of draft rankings should be able to get an NHL player in the top half of the first round. It’s all the rest of it that’s tricky, and my opinion on Mark Hunter is simply that I have no idea if he’s any good or not, but that’s a very large number of draft picks playing in the AHL out of the 2015 draft. On the other hand, the team was bad, had a good draft position and some extra picks. Oh, and scouting department that is so big the Ottawa Senators wouldn’t know what to do with it. And of course, to further complicate things, no one actually knows how much influence Hunter had on that draft. (source)
Whatever the final outcome is, Bob’s on it.
A 2019 NHL DRAFT Q&A
We decided to do a little pre-draft Q&A with a couple of bright minds who cover NHL draft prospects, Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries), to give you a bit of clearer idea on this year’s draft class.
By now, you should be familiar with Max’s work. He’s been doing some very interesting and informative prospect profiles for us this season, but Mr. Fries will be new to you.
I met Keith whilst reaching out to various scouts at numerous levels on Linkedin and the amount of time he afforded to me as I asked him question after question on this year’s class was beyond what I’d expected. So I asked him if he wanted a place to publish his work, and he accepted.
At the end, there’s a little gift from Keith to the hockey world that I think you’ll really dig.
Let’s get into this Q&A because she’s a bit of a long one. I asked some tough questions, or at least questions I thought were tough and there are some that are Oilers-centric for us Oilers fans.
What does your top-10 look like for this year’s draft?
Max (@TPEHockey): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Alex Turcotte 4. Dylan Cozens 5. Trevor Zegras 6. Bowen Byram 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Kirby Dach 9. Alex Newhook 10. Cole Caufield
Keith (@keithfries): 1. Jack Hughes 2. Kaapo Kakko 3. Vasili Podkolzin 4. Kirby Dach 5. Dylan Cozens 6. Matthew Boldy 7. Peyton Krebs 8. Bowen Byram 9. Trevor Zegras 10. Cole Caufield
Can you give me your top-15 mock draft? Who might jump into the top-10 that we aren’t expecting to (i.e. Barrett Hayton)?
Max (@TPEHockey): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Alex Turcotte 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Vasili Podkolzin 6. DET – Trevor Zegras 7. BUF – Dylan Cozens 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Kirby Dach 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Matthew Boldy 12. MIN – Victor Soderstrom 13. FLA – Arthur Kaliyev 14. ARI – Alex Newhook 15. MTL – Bobby Brink
Like how Hayton went 5th-overall since centers were rare in that draft, a defenseman could do just that. If so, look for Victor Soderstrom to go higher, possibly in the top-10. Thomas Harley could also make some big strides.
Keith (@keithfries): 1. NJD – Jack Hughes 2. NYR – Kaapo Kakko 3. CHI – Vasili Podkolzin 4. COL – Bowen Byram 5. LAK – Kirby Dach 6. DET – Dylan Cozens 7. BUF – Matthew Boldy 8. EDM – Peyton Krebs 9. ANA – Trevor Zegras 10. VAN – Cole Caufield 11. PHI – Alex Turcotte 12. MIN – Cam York 13. FLA – Moritz Seider 14. ARI – Victor Soderstrom 15. MTL – Nick Suzuki
I can’t see anyone making a giant leap up the draft boards, this year. However, I think some of the guys already seen as top-10 prospects could wiggle into the top-5 – like Caufield, Boldy, or Cozens.
Who do you think has the potential to fall in the draft (i.e. Joe Veleno)?
Max (@TPEHockey): I don’t see a Veleno-like drop from anyone, this season, but Kirby Dach could end up falling. He has flashed some insane talent, and at points looked like easily the 3rd-overall prospect. But, he’s also been wildly inconsistent. He at one point went on a 15+ game skid where he only managed to put up a few points. The inconsistency could contribute to a big fall, but I don’t see him dropping past 15th-overall.
Keith (@keithfries): Based solely on the recent news that he’ll be staying in Russia for two more seasons, it’s entirely possible that Vasili Podkolzin drops to the 11-15th-overall bracket. That’s not indicative of his play, mind you. And for how much shuffling and moving up there was for playoff bubble teams, in this year’s lottery, I can’t see Podkolzin’s stock dropping that dramatically. Maybe more the equivalent of a Filip Zadina-esque fall than Veleno’s.
After Hughes and Kakko, who is the best player available?
Max (@TPEHockey): It’s gotta be Turcotte. His stock plummeted after he missed most of the season with injury, but as he came back people realized the massive mistake they made. He’s a stellar skater and playmaker, but also phenomenal defensively. He takes the puck to dangerous areas with his skating abilities and makes perfect passes to create opportunities. So far at the U18s, he’s been great on the PK. His defensive play is probably the best of the top-forward prospects, maybe second to Dach.
Keith (@keithfries): When it comes down to taking the best player available, it’s really hard to look past all of Podkolzin’s offensive gifts.
The Edmonton Oilers will have the opportunity to take a pretty talented forward at #8 overall. If you were the GM of that team, who would you take and why?
Max (@TPEHockey): If he’s available I’d definitely go with Peyton Krebs. We’ve seen Leon Draisaitl lacking support from the wing, but in a few years, Krebs could fill that role.
Keith (@keithfries): I’ll piggy-back on Max’s answer and say Krebs, as well. He finds ways to make it on the score sheet with little help around him, and that sounds like a Godsend to the nightly hot-and-cold Oilers.
Based on the previous question, I’d like to know how you’d approach their 2nd–round pick, as well.
Max (@TPEHockey): The Oilers need a goalie. Shane Starrett has had quite the season in the AHL, but I don’t see him being a starter for Edmonton. With that 2nd–rounder, I’d take a long look at Ilya Konovalov. He’s an overager in the KHL who has been very good for Lokomotiv. His stats are similar to those of Igor Shestyorkin and Ilya Sorokin, but he’s two years younger. He might only be a year or two out from getting some NHL playing time.
Keith (@keithfries): If there’s one knock against the Oilers it’s their lack of defensive depth and spark out of the back end. I’m projecting forwards to be the flavor of the first round, so a defender with some upside, like an Anttoni Honka or Tobias Bjornfot, might be the way to go.
Would you trade the Oilers’ first-rounder for help in other areas? If so, what would that deal look like?
Max (@TPEHockey): I would not trade a 1st–rounder, this year. Passing on a top-prospect like Krebs for immediate help could look really bad in a few years. In general, I’m against trading away high 1st-round picks.
Keith (@keithfries): A top-10 pick in this draft would be the equivalent of a top-5 in recent classes. So moving out that pick has to net a viable return. At this point as an organization, they’re nowhere near a playoff push, so I don’t see how a trade helps them. Build for the future and make the pick.
Is this a good year to draft a goaltender if you’re the Oilers? If so, who would you take, where would you take him, and why?
Max (@TPEHockey): 8th is definitely too high to go after the highly-touted Spencer Knight, and while the 2nd-rounder is a little high for Konovalov, it’s still a good pick in my opinion. What he’s been doing in the KHL would be made a bigger deal of if he was a prospect for a high profile team.
Keith (@keithfries): There are only a handful of goaltenders that I can see have starting potential, so if they’re off the board, I’d imagine Edmonton sticking with what they have in their system, already.
When you’re scouting players, what are the most important attributes you look for in a: forward, defenseman, and goalie? What are things that you might consider red flags?
Max (@TPEHockey): In both a forward and defenseman, the first thing I look for are basic attributes in a player. Usually, that means skating, passing, shot, etc.
For forwards, I look for how a player drives the play. Are they creating the offense or are they benefiting off linemates?
For defensemen, I usually look at how well they move the puck and see the ice in the offensive zone as well as how well they cover their guy, cover a zone, and cut off passing lanes.
One thing to look at is NHL Central Scouting’s player checklists. They’re available to the public and a good thing to look at when evaluating a player.
For goalies, there are a lot of things I look at. My priorities are mainly on puck tracking and technical ability. How well does a goalie follow the puck? How are their angles? Depth? Overall puck tracking is the one thing I want to see. This means seeing how well a goaltender can keep themselves square with the puck and in position to make a save. If a goalie is always square to a shooter it’s very hard to score nowadays. Goals today come from taking a goalie out of position.
Keith (@keithfries): In a forward, I like to quickly identify their skill set. If they’re a playmaker, sniper, two-way, etc., and then see how their attributes best help the team. If you have a player who’s a sniper, and you keep lining him up at center but complain that there’s a lack of production from your wingers, then move him to the outside and put a playmaker down the middle. That’s not true of every line, just providing a quick example…
As for defensemen, I want to know for sure that they can be disciplined in the art of defense. It’s in their job description, after all. Backchecking, physical play, blocking shots, you name it.
As for netminders, it’s always about being the last line of defense in the trenches, so to speak. You need someone who stays calm and keeps you in the game on nights when there’s chaos and little to no production.
Can you give me a few players who might be hidden gems that could be snapped up in the later rounds of the draft?
Max (@TPEHockey): Justin Bergeron. He’s an overager, but only missing the 2018 Entry Draft by a few hours. He’s been an integral defensive piece on Rouyn Noranda, who have been one of the best teams in the CHL. Other players I’d look for would be Cole MacKay, Xavier Simoneau, and Drew Helleson.
Keith (@keithfries): There are a couple of USNTDP kids that could fly under the radar of the first few rounds, like Henry Thrun or Alex Vlasic. It’s also entirely possible that a guy like Nolan Foote, who has been a ghost on draft boards all season, could be an everyday NHLer.
Which players do you feel have the ability to play in the NHL right away?
Max (@TPEHockey): The only players I can say will play in the NHL are Hughes and Kakko. Cozens would be the next guy to look for. He’s got the size, speed, and power to survive in the NHL, but I think throwing him in would be rushing him. He’d benefit more from playing another year in juniors.
Keith (@keithfries): Agree with Max that I can only really see Hughes and Kakko being promoted to the NHL, next year. A few players who are already physically mature – Boldy, Dach, and Cozens – all may get a 10-game contract at some point, though.
What are your thoughts on projection metrics like NHLe?
Max (@TPEHockey): While interesting, you have to take them with a grain of salt. Some leagues I’ve found feel undervalued, mainly the NCAA. They’re fun to look at and good for people that want to get a quick look at who the top guys are, but they don’t tell the full story.
Keith (@keithfries): They’re bulls**t.
That was a lot of fun to do and I thank them both for taking the time to help out. I hope we can do some more as the draft draws closer. Make sure you give Max (@TPEHockey) and Keith (@KeithFries) a follow as they are quite keen on hockey prospects and know their shite.
GIFT: Keith’s has released a 2019 NHL draft journal that you can download here.
