Edmonton Oilers Offseason Talk: Neiderreiter, Ehlers, Laine, and More!

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

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Oilersnation

Why the Oilers should pursue a top-six winger with finishing talent

“I think McDavid is being held back at 5v5 a bit. This season, he held a 54 percent goal differential, but his expected goal differential was 59 percent. If his linemates could even finish at a league-average rate, McDavid would be on-ice for roughly 17-18 more 5v5 goals in the past two seasons, which easily results in at least 14-15 more assists.”
“Connor Brown is an interesting name. Possessing above-average scoring and finishing skills… At the very least, I would wager that he’s a considerable upgrade on Yamamoto production-wise, and he fits Edmonton’s stylistic needs as a right-shot RW.”
“…the primary appeal with Pacioretty is his spectacular 5v5 scoring rates when he is healthy; in the past three seasons, he ranks 4th in the entire league in 5v5 goals per 60, only behind Pastrnak, Vrana, and Matthews…”
“I like Nino Niederreiter. He ranks 31st in the league in 5v5 goals per 60 over the past three seasons, ahead of various players such as Draisaitl, Eichel, Meier, Stamkos, and so on.”
“Alex Killorn is a strong goal-scorer and finisher. I think he could fit Edmonton’s needs, but I’m not entirely certain if he would sign in Edmonton.”
“…pending UFA Daniel Sprong finished 3rd in the league in 5v5 points per hour this season.”
“Ivan Barbashev and Conor Sheary are some other cheap, low-risk UFA options. Many years back, Sheary produced well alongside Crosby, so he has some experience playing alongside star players.”
“If the Oilers want to take a swing on bigger names, Nikolaj Ehlers or Travis Konecny could be great targets, although that could prevent Edmonton from addressing their other needs due to their limited cap space.”

BLH’s Thoughts: What?! Another Connor Brown suggestion? Color me shocked.

Just for what it’s worth, check out Brown’s traditional career stats. Fancies paint a different picture, no argument there, but how different are they from Yamamoto’s?

Brown’s not played a full season of hockey in four years now nor has he eclipsed the 45pt mark. Yet here we are reading and hearing his name like he’s going to experience a Hyman-like explosion in as soon as he leaves the Eastern Conference.

There’s no guarantee that a player is going to thrive on 29 or 97’s wing and to add to that, IF Connor Brown is good for 30-40pts (40 being very generous), then, at discount, he should be worth at least $2.5M-3M/yr on the open market. If he’s not considered to be that sort of player, why is he even being considered?

Everything has to be considered with this player. To me, he looks like Killer’s replacement but at the spot on the roster where Yamo should be playing, on the 3rd line, and while Edmonton couldn’t hurt upgrading their bottom-six scoring, I don’t think the reason to sign this player is because the organization “hopes” he’ll be able to recreate some junior magic with McDavid. Enough of the hope BS. Get a guy in there who’ll do the bloody job. Can’t afford it? Too bad. Get f*cking creative and make some hard decsions so that missing piece can be afforded. This isn’t Pittsburgh (or at least it shouldn’t be), an appearance in the Cup final and/or a Cup win and all the hard feelings will be forgotten.

Niederreiter intrigues me because he does score a bit and he’s a god damned tank with some edge to his game. Killorn’s going to sign with a team in the sun belt or an American Cup contender I reckon. Pacioretty would be sweet but at his age and with one good foot left, the risk might be too much. I do love Barbashev though whereas Sprong and Sheary aren’t good enough for me.

Trade-wise, if Konecny is available and the price is right, do it. Ehlers would be fantastic but he’s running into health issues. Would you swing on Patrik Laine if he were available?

Cult of Hockey

The Edmonton Oilers have a winning move this summer. Can you guess what it is?

“It’s most likely more of the same, Ken Holland’s famous patience.”
“For a good number of fans, the move Edmonton should make is obvious. Clear out as much salary as you can, moving out players like Kailer Yamamoto, Cody Ceci and Warren Foegele, for example, and bring in one more big name player, possibly with an Unrestricted Free Agent signing.”
“Maybe there is a deal to be had. Move out Yamo and Ceci, bring in Mayfield at similar money to Ceci. Move out Yamo and Foegele, bring in Barbashev at similar enough money to Foegele.”
“Edmonton will have Oscar Klefbom off the books this year, meaning the team can accumulate cap space as the season proceeds. If it has extra space at the 2024 trade deadline, it can then make a bigger deal to fulfill a key need. And with less time to pay that player, Edmonton will have the extra short-term cap space to be able to bring in a more expensive one for the playoff run than they could have for the full season.”

BLH’s Thoughts: We know that this roster makeup can compete for the division. Now, what’s left to be determined is if the outgoing UFAs on the team can be replaced straight across by the Oilers’ AHL blue chippers?

Could Noah Philp replace Nick Bjugstad? Could Dylan Holloway replace Mattias Janmark? Would the Oilers be okay swapping Derek Ryan out for Rafa Lavoie? Might James Hamblin or Xavier Bourgault ease the “pain” of losing Devin Shore?

If you think two or three could, then what would be the pain in running with that until the month prior to the deadline and accruing as much cap space as possible with the intent on landing some big names on deadline day?

Another thing we’ve yet to start hearing about are PTOs.

Trade Rumors

Spector’s Hockey

DeCock speculated Hurricanes management could decide to peddle Teravainen this summer if they’re unlikely to re-sign him. They could also perhaps sell high on Necas or Jack Drury, who both struggled in the postseason.
Ken Wiebe wonders if the Hurricanes and Winnipeg Jets would become trade partners if the latter attempts to shake up their “core four”… Pyotr Kochetckov is the only Hurricanes goalie under contract for next season. Hellebuyck has one season left on his contract with a manageable $6.167 million cap hit.
- Wiebe listed Necas, Teravainen and Pesce as possible Hurricanes trade chips as well as top prospect Scott Morrow and their 2023 or 2024 first-rounder.
Chuck Bausman cited Flyers general manager Daniel Briere telling Philadelphia sports radio 94.1 WIP that he’s open to trading goaltender Carter Hart.
Patrick Johnston recently took note of The Athletic’s Scott Powers indicating the Chicago Blackhawks would love to move up into the top-15 in this year’s draft order.
- The Canucks would like to move Tyler Myers, who has a year left with a $6 million cap hit on his contract. Johnston, however, suggested winger Conor Garland ($4.95 million cap hit through 2025-26) might be more enticing to the Blackhawks because he’s six years younger than Myers and still in his prime.

BLH’s Thoughts: Carolina would be dumb to move on from Necas unless they were getting a helluva player back in return. Teravainen is a replaceable forward and maybe the Canes bet on Puljujarvi bouncing back on the cheap as that replacement. They’ll save multiple millions on that bet and they can go out and acquire a Connopr Hellebuyck with that savings and all of the prospects and picks they’ve pocketed in recent years.

Carter Hart is still young enough that he could go through a rebuild and his career wouldn’t take a massive hit. It would be incumbent on Philly to insulate him though so that he doesn’t go all John Gibson. However, it sounds like Briere is very much willing to listen on anything, would the Maple Leafs be able to incentivize Philadelphia enough to get them to take Matt Murray in return for Hart? LA is going to be looking for an upgrade in net and they’ve got all sorts of prospects to send to the Flyers. What about a goalie swap with the Jets? Would the Avs be willing to take a swing on Hart? Buffalo?