Edmonton Oilers Rumors: This is How I’d Improve the Oilers Defense

I’ve been sitting on this article for a few days now wondering how to present it and I’ve finally decided just to put it out there. Coherent thoughts be damned!

You see, this Edmonton Oilers team has come to that point in its development where it’s time to make some harsh decisions. The forward group is coming along and simply requires some experimentation and tinkering, but the core of the defense has been around for a solid three years, four for some and yet, there’s still a problem or two.

One, it has trouble defending effectively and consistently. Now, be that due to the inconsistent health at the top or having to go through the peaks and valleys of deploying players before they’re ready or they’re out of their leagues, it’s still an issue.

Two, it has lacked elite puck-movers in the top-four and will for at least one more season until the Oilers’ coaching staff is comfortable playing Ethan Bear on the top pair, Caleb Jones on the 2nd pair, and Evan Bouchard on the 3rd pair.

For today’s post, I want to just illustrate where the team is with their current trident (Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, and Darnell Nurse.) and talk about possible solutions following that.

Take a gander at this chart. It contains the relative “against” metrics for the Klefbom, Larsson, and Nurse at 5×5 (2000 minutes played minimum) from 2017/18-to-2019/20 courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. I used the relative form of the statistic to illustrate how that player as an individual impacted his team. In brackets, I’ll have that player’s league ranking amongst his peers.

Feel free to bash your head into your keyboard now. There were only 168 skaters who played 2000 minutes or more in that time frame and the Oilers have their top-two left-shooting defenders ranking in the bottom third in a majority of the defensive categories? That’s a tough recipe for success.

Now, I was under the impression that Mr. Nurse was a good defensive defender. Boy, was I wrong. To put it politely, he is not. And now I’m starting to wonder why multiple veteran head coaches are always putting him on the ice with Connor McDavid? Wouldn’t they want a guy who can effectively move the puck to the best player in the world more often than not and give their team a better chance at scoring?

Sure, 25’s goals share numbers are high (.47 GF/60 using same parameters as above. Good for 22nd in the league) but surely we can attribute that to the amount of time he’s played with the Oilers’ best players. Well, some might say correlation doesn’t equal causation and to that I say, take him away from Connor and let’s see where that offense goes. Even the metrics tell us that Darnell needs McDavid more than McDavid needs Darnell and in Nurse’s defense, that’s how it goes for a lot of players.

Nurse is the WRONG defenseman to be sending out with McDavid. Connor needs defenders who can pass him the puck, not ones who can transport it by themselves. I can count the number of players on one hand who play for the Oilers who should be allowed to rush the puck through the neutral zone and into the other team’s end and Nurse is not one of them.

Aside from the goal share, what else will Nurse bring to the table that will contribute to the success of the team on the ice? Apparently, it’s not his defense. I used to think that his toughness was one of those things and he’s tamed right down over the years. I consider Adam Larsson and Matthew Benning to be much meaner players now.

So if he has trouble moving the puck, shooting on net, defending on the whole and winning the shot share, what the hell are the Oilers doing with him, and are they expecting him to get better? He’s twenty-five years old now and if there’s a time to trade the guy and get maximum value, it’s now. And if the club is afraid to deal him because it’ll piss off Connor, resign, because obviously they’re not prepared to do what’s best for the team. The caveat being, the return and replacement MUST upgrade the team. 

SMH Moment: Jason Gregor thinks the Oilers should only deal Nurse if they can get a true #1 defenseman and the odds of getting back a player that will make the team better are quite low.

#Yikes. That’s about as uneducated of an opinion as one can throw out there and I’ve thrown out some doozies over the years. Speaking of odds. What are the odds a local member of the media overrates one of the Oilers? Just asking for a friend.

Solution! Sign Erik Gustafsson. He’d be cheaper with substantially better offensive numbers as well as slightly better defensive ones, and a more effective puck mover. Boom! Done. Keep the Swedish revolution alive!

As I said, the defensive stats (above) are on par with Nurse and Klefbom but the offensive ones (below) are far and away an upgrade on Edmonton’s two top lefties. This is three seasons worth and it’s not like Gustafsson was playing for a juggernaut.

As for Oscar, Brian Lawton was on Oilers Now last week and he expressed concern over the future of Klefbom’s health. Of all the players we’re talking about today, he’s played the fewest games since 2017/18 with 189/246. In fact, he’s only had one season where he’s played more than 66 games and that was back in 2016/17 when he put up season highs and played in every game.

His problem is he allows a lot of chances against doesn’t produce many himself. So how much is he really helping and/or hurting the club?

On the other hand, he eats minutes like a MFer and passes better than Nurse or Larsson. He’s more trusted and plays a very simple game. Health concerns aside, is he the one that needs to be moved? We can’t forget that he has one of the best contracts in the league either. A guy that plays as much as him should be making much much more than $4M a year.

Adam Larsson isn’t going to give you any offense. He’s paired up with Klefbom because Klef is the puck mover on that pair and they have good chemistry together. He IS capable of moving it up himself either by pass or by rush, mind you. I don’t think we’re breaking any news there, but he is the team’s BEST defensive defenseman and he’s right-handed. He plays 20+ minutes a night and these players are in demand. Unless you have a ready replacement or you get your socks knocked off with a trade offer, you keep him. If you’re worried about his back, don’t be. He’s missed more time with a foot injury in the past than one in his back.

Bob Stauffer pontificated on his show yesterday morning that perhaps Larsson would be willing to take a lower salary because he wants to extend his career and he sees that the kinds of players who play like him are becoming fewer with each season that passes by.

If that’s the case, you could sign him long-term and then slowly move him down the lineup as others graduate like Bear and Bouchard.

I’ll say this though. There is one reason you’d move the Iron Swede and that’s if he didn’t want to be there. Not saying that’s the case but his time in Edmonton has been overshadowed by the local populace’s infatuation with Taylor Hall and his father passing away. So, there’s a possibility there’s a bit of a dark cloud that hovers over him in E-Town.

The Conundrum

If the Oilers trade Klefbom, Nurse, or Larsson for help on forward, who is replacing them on the first pair? Are Nurse and Bear ready? Which forces us to consider who should be on the 2nd pair and would one of those players be ready to take on first pair minutes in the case of injury, sickness, or suspension? My sources tell me that as good as Caleb Jones’ numbers were, he needs one more year on the 3rd pair.

That being said, Would you move Nurse for Nik Ehlers and then sign Erik Gustafsson?

Who I Want

There are three defenders that I absolutely love for the Oilers,

• Vince Dunn (STL) – He’s a very mobile left-shot blueliner for St. Louis. He’s so agile and moves the puck extremely well. Dunn isn’t a puck rusher though, he’s a transitionary dman. Kinda like Ethan Bear but with the kind of edges that Quinn Hughes has. Not that good, but up there. He’s an RFA this off-season and there are rumblings out there that the Blues might have to move him if they want to re-sign Alex Pietrangelo.
• Viktor Mete (MTL) – Mete isn’t as good on the edges as Dunn but he’s a fantastic puck mover in his own right. Not sure if the Canadiens would like to trade him since they’re lacking quality defenceman on their left-side.
• Erik Gustafsson (CGY) – UFA this summer. He could be a good temporary solution as the team awaits the arrival of Philip Broberg. As we stated above, his contribution to the offense blows Nurse’s out of the water and his defense is slightly better.

The Blues are going to want to shed salary, so I imagine that they’d like to avoid taking on salary in a deal for Dunn should they decide they’re moving him and he’s only 23. They’re also set on forward for the most part. I’d have to guess they’d be looking for picks/prospects. I’d love to offer Athanasiou for Dunn but I’m not sure of that proposal’s realism factor.

Montreal will want to win now but would you offer Nurse and Puljujarvi for Domi and Mete?

The Leafs Rumors

Tell ya what. The Leafs need a rugged shutdown defender more than the Oilers need skilled forwards. I’d go as far as to say the Oilers need to upgrade the puck-moving and mobility of their defense more. I also believe that Edmonton has done enough to help other teams around the league and making Toronto a better club would be disastrous for the Oilers should the Leafs rebuild have success before Edmonton… Why help that team?

Yesterday morning, James Mirtle (The Athletic) and Bob Stauffer were having a discussion about the possibility of a Leafs/Oilers trade and the just of Mirtle’s thoughts were thus,

• Adam Larsson might not be TO’s no.1 priority. They’re probably aiming higher.
• Kapanen’s ceiling might be as a 3rd line penalty killer.
  • He has trouble playing with skilled star players because his read and react game isn’t at that level.
  • He’s a fantastic skater but doesn’t wow you with any other skill.
• Andreas Johnsson plays better with the stars.
  • He’s better in the corners.
  • Has a better shot and makes small area passes better.
  • Grittier

I’m staying away from Kapanen if he can’t play with the likes of Draisaitl and McDavid. The Oilers have gone through a plethora of those players and there’s no sense in using assets to bring in another one.

Another thing, people have to get this through their heads, just because a player can skate in a line really fast does not make them a good fit for Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. They need wingers who are skilled and have the ability to work in the muck. It’s so simple.

If Andreas Johnsson is that guy, so be it. Just don’t trade Adam Larsson for him because Toronto wins that deal. They’ve got a handful of skilled Euros that are lining up to replace Johnsson when he’s traded but they have NOBODY on the right side of their defense.

Mr. Stauffer brought up four names on his show yesterday morning,

• Bryan Rust (PIT)
• Matt Murray (PIT)
• Braden Holtby (WAS)
• Tyson Barrie (UFA)

Keep an ear out in the future regarding those players. Tyson Barrie has been linked with the Oilers for a long time as has Bryan Rust. Last summer there were Puljujarvi/Rust rumors flying and this year I’m hearing that Holland will be looking to upgrade the wingers with experienced players who know both ends of the ice. My sources have told me that the Oilers will be targeting Holtby if cap room can shake loose. If the Oilers want Barrie, it’ll have to be at the cost of Adam Larsson though.

In the end, I’d move Nurse for a good winger (Ehlers/Rakell/Bertuzzi/Vrana) and then sign Gustafsson. I’d leave Klefbom and Larsson for one more year and then make a decision on that pair then. The hope is that by upgrading the passing/playmaking ability of the group with the addition of Gustaffson, Jones, and eventually Bouchard, they’ll be playing less in their own zone and as a result, the against numbers will improve.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!