Most years I’m chomping at the bit for the Oilers season to get going but for some reason, I’ve got very little to be excited about this year. That’s kinda weird, right? Given Edmonton has the best duo in the world in McDavid and Draisaitl as well as the acquisition of James Neal, you’d think there’d be more reason to be jacked up. But I’m not. In fact, I’m thinking about just being a casual follower this year and perhaps focusing my efforts on Bakersfield and the draft (the first round is so f*cking good this year).
To compound the dark cloud hovering over me, I’ve got a strange feeling that McDavid’s knee was a lot worse than previously thought or it’s not healing as fast as the doctors had previously anticipated it would. I’m going to go as far as saying that I think he won’t lead his own team in scoring let alone the NHL. I think that honor will go to Leon Draisaitl.
The impression I’m getting from my sources, what Ken Holland has been preaching and with his actions over the last couple of months, is that this is a transition year. Just look at how he’s been signing players this summer, mostly to one or two-year deals. He’s doing his best to improve the penalty kill and the Oilers’ bottom-six on the short term with one move that has a chance at improving the top-6.
Looking at the roster as it currently stands, does it really have your heart racing?
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Nygard-RNH-Neal
Granlund–Haas–Archibald
Khaira-Gagner-Chiasson
Cave, Jurco
I suppose there’s a little bit of intrigue when it comes to Nygard and Haas… But nothing to get hard over. I don’t think Brodziak makes it this year. It might make more sense to send him to Ference Island or to Bakersfield. No kids from the Condors either. One more year of marination and domination in the AHL.
Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Benning
Russell-Persson
Lagesson
I’m still adamant that Jones/Bear will be running the show in Bakersfield and I think that’s the right thing to do. There’s no sense in having them up in Edmonton sitting in the press box when they could be getting 20-22 minutes a night for the Condors.
Koskinen
Smith
How will Mike Smith’s puckhandling ability impact the opposition’s zone entries and his team’s exits?
Isn’t it obvious, he’s going to go for broke in the summer of 2020 when the UFA class could be staggering.
- Taylor Hall
- Alex Pietrangelo
- Niklas Backstrom
- Braden Holtby
- Mikael Granlund
- Tyson Barrie
- Justin Schultz
- Torey Krug
- Mike Hoffman
- Jared Spurgeon
- Brayden Schenn
- Robin Lehner
- Alex Galchenyuk
- Chris Kreider
- Tyler Toffoli
- Evgeni Dadonov
There are a shite ton more but these are the cream of the crop.
Ken Holland, with enough cap room, could add a proper difference-making player to each forward line, defensive pair, and in the net, if he so chooses to and in a single off-season no less. The Oilers would be contenders not just for the playoffs, but the Stanley Cup!
Look at the projected roster for 2020-21
Draisaitl-McDavid-Neal
XXX-RNH-XXX
XXX-XXX-XXX
XXX-Khaira-Chiasson
XXX-XXX
Klefbom-Larsson
Russell-Bouchard
Samorukov-XXX
XXX
Koskinen
XXX
Now, by then, the likes of Marody, Yamamoto, Benson, McLeod, Maksimov, Safin, or Gambardella might be off the farm and playing for the Oilers, but I have to say only Benson and maybe Yamamoto have a real shot. If Marody’s skating has improved immensely by then, he could be an addition, but I don’t get the feeling that’s something he’s concerned about. As for Gambardella, his skating also concerns me and he’s aging out, to be honest.
One wildcard addition to the team in 2020 could be that of Jesse Puljujarvi. If the team doesn’t trade him and he has an excellent season, surely it’d be incumbent on both parties to re-visit a conversation themed around Pulju coming back to Edmonton. He’d be 22 years old and on a cheap contract, possibly only one or two years long too.
So what would that forward group look like if we threw in some free agents and prospects?
Draisaitl-McDavid-Neal
Hall-RNH-Puljujarvi
Benson–Pageau–Karlsson
Watson-Khaira-Chiasson
Carr–Yamamoto
So how much do you think it would cost to sign Jesse Puljujarvi, Taylor Hall, JG Pageau, Melker Karlsson, Austin Watson, and Daniel Carr? $18M-$20M? I’ve got Hall taking under $10M, Pageau asking for over $4M but under $5M, Puljujarvi taking $1M-$2M, Karlsson around $2M-$2.5M, and Watson/Carr
If the cap stays the same, the Oilers might have around $25M to play with, that’s not too bad. It won’t leave them with a lot to help the defense though. As usual, I’m most likely blue-skying this… #Wishin’
The defense in 2020 is an interesting conundrum. Darnell Nurse is coming along nicely and he’d be great on the 2nd pair as the clean-up man with a mobile right-shot defender who can move the puck. A player like Tyson Barrie or Jared Spurgeon would be ideal in my opinion. But this is predicated upon Doc signing a team-friendly contract and I don’t think that’s going to happen. Add to that the impression I’m getting from sources close to the team that Nurse could be trade bait if his ask is too high. He’s not going to have a lot of leverage with the crop of talented defenders coming out of Bakersfield and Sweden…
Bob Stauffer (Oilers PxP colorman) said not too long ago that the Oilers are going to have a “mechanism” to open up salary next summer. Is that a buyout in Kris Russell’s case? Not much savings in 2020/21 ($1M) but the next season they’re only paying 500k and that’s the year that the salary cap is expected to spike. I reckon just sending him to the minors would be a better move as it costs them only $2.5M to put him there as opposed to spending $3.5M over two years on a buyout. That or trade him…
However the Oilers choose to open up the cap space, there is going to be a push to have younger players overperforming on their ELC contracts but they do have to be careful of who they play and how much they play him as the expansion draft for the new Seattle franchise will be in the summer or 2021. They could play their cards right and give someone 35 games in each season and then leave him exposed. Say William Lagesson?
There will be a lot of focus on Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear At training camp.
But William Lagesson has a great chance to make the Oilers.
Had 8-19-27, +25 in 67 GP with @Condors last season.
Staunch defensive D, who saw a few games on the right side.— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) September 2, 2019
How does their defense look if updated in 2020? Maybe Nurse signs a friendly contract (that is easily traded down the road) but Russell is traded for picks.
Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Spurgeon
Lagesson-Bouchard
Samorukov
I think William Lagesson would cost the Oilers less than what Matt Benning is being paid right now. So that would put the gritty Swede at around $1M-$1.5M. But Jared Spurgeon is a whole other bucket of balls. He’s going to be around $7M or $8M. So how do you fit that in with only $5M or less in space available?
You have to ask yourself if it came down to JG Pageau and Jared Spurgeon, who would you sign? The local lad or the guy that will anchor your 3rd line and PK for the foreseeable future? Or possibly forget about Pulju coming back, would you be comfortable filling the hole on right-wing internally with one of Kiril Maksimov of Kailer Yamamoto? Would Raphael Lavoie be ready by then?
As for the goalies, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Oilers found a way to move Koskinen on and have a completely different tandem in net for the season after this upcoming one. Maybe one of those is Shane Starrett? He’s definitely paid his dues.
Anyways, I think you get the point of that exercise. Holland is gearing up for a big swing but not this season. He’s going to watch a few pitches go by this season before digging in and hittin’ that dinger in 2020/21.
THE 2020 NHL ENTRY DRAFT
Another reason for the Oilers to just ice a sub-par team is the 2020 NHL entry draft. This might be one of the best drafts in NHL history. The battle for first overall today is looking like it belongs to Rimouski winger Alexis Lafreniere, but I’m here to tell you that it could go as deep as four or five players.
- Quinton Byfield – C – (Sudbury) – The 6’5″ centre reminds me of Rick Nash with his size, skating, and soft hands. He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft…
- Lucas Raymond – RW – (Frolunda) – If you’re a fan of Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, you’ll love this crafty winger!
- Anton Lundell – C – (HIFK) – Being called the next Barkov. Highly intelligent two-way centre.
I’d add possibly the purest goal-scorer in the draft, Swedish winger Alexander Holtz (Djurgarden), and the next great Russian~ neh! NHL goalie Yaro Askarov (SKA) to that list of players who could challenge Lafreniere. It’ll all depend on the Oceanic winger’s season really. If he slips one bit, those players I mentioned above are poised to pounce.
Even if they didn’t wind up with a top-5 pick in the draft, there’s literally a great player at every position for them to select should they miss the playoffs.
- Cole Perfetti – C – (Saginaw) – Will rival Holtz as purest goal-scoring forward available.
- Dylan Holloway – LW – (Wisconsin) – As balanced-a-player as you’re going to get. AJHL MVP as a 17-year-old last year.
- Noel Gunler – RW – (Lulea) – Talented sniper but comes with concerns re attitude.
- Hendrix Lapierre – C – (Chicoutimi) – The silkiest of hands and one of the best playmakers in the draft. Elite vision.
- Kaiden Guhle – D – (Prince George) – Hard-nosed defender that can skate and make a play.
- Jamie Drysdale – D – (Erie) – A fantastic skater, maybe best skating defender in 2020. Very smart, poised, and confident with the puck.
- Justin Barron – D – (Halifax) – Built in the Thomas Chabot/Shea Theodore molding. Might be better.
- Rodion Amirov – LW – (Tolpar) – Another flashy Russian you don’t say? He scores in bunches too.
- Tim Stutzle – C – (Adler) – Outstanding shooter. Quite dynamic. Very fast with great edges.
- Marco Rossi – C – (Ottawa) – Short, stocky, and very strong. Very effective down low. Great shooter. Excellent two-way game.
- Kasper Simontaival – RW – (Tappara) -Quick, deadly release, high-octane offensive skill.
There is SO MUCH (small) skill available in 2020. You can’t tell me the Oilers couldn’t do with one more high-end pick… My feeling is that they need to focus their attention on the centres slated to go in the first round. They don’t really have any high-end pivots in the system, do they? I mean centres who are projected to be top-6 players.
So Oilers fans, what do you think? Is there much to watch for this year or should you hold off, like the Oilers are poised to, until 2020/21?
