Edmonton Oilers Talk: DNB’s Anti-Keith Article, BLH’s Most Anticipated Oilers Games, and the Latest NHL Rumors

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

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The Athletic

Duncan Keith’s decline, by the numbers and video: Can the 38-year-old defenceman rebound with the Oilers?

There’s good reason to be skeptical that Keith can bounce back.

BLH’s Thoughts: What kind of expectations does one have when they say, “There’s good reason to be skeptical that Keith can bounce back.”? I mean, are they saying it’s foolish to think that he can come in and be his old Norris Trophy version? If so, I agree, I think there is a good reason to believe that and that reason is HE’S 38 YEARS OLD! You don’t need video and a bloody 10 page report filled with analytics visuals to figure that out.

So the question should be, what’s a reasonable expectation for Duncan Keith considering all the pertinent factors?

Detecting a defender’s decline can be tricky on the surface. Even if his scoring does decrease, absorbing key minutes and racking up blocks can give the impression that he’s still capable in his role.
First, after dips in play, he’s generally rebounded over the next couple of seasons. Second, and most importantly, there’s been a noticeable decline since 2014. That drop-off has been particularly concerning since 2018.
According to Luszczyszyn’s model, he’s expected to be a replacement-level defender over the next few seasons.

BLH’s Thoughts: God forbid we disagree with the Great Dom Luszcyszyn’s “model”. Imagine if it were ever wrong? How lost the hockey world would be in that scenario…

I’ve not heard one person, for or against Keith, say that they expect him to play like a 25 year old. Everybody has realistic expectations for this player but at the same time, he’s played on some shit rosters and has had to carry the defense for quite a few of the recent ones as the Blackhawks have been transitioning the roster.

What I’m a little surprised with in this article is why Nugent-Bowman never looked at Keith’s oft-used comparison, Chris Chelios, and gave us a glimpse into what his analytics looked like using the same age-frame. I mean, there were ZERO historical comps used to show the reader what kind of potential Duncan Keith could tap into.

It’s as if DNB is saying that Keith has no chance of being a success in Edmonton whilst willfully ignoring the scores of defenders in the NHL’s history that have been good top-4 defensemen going into their 40s.

Here’s a list of defensemen who had pretty good seasons as 38 year olds,

Teppo Numinen (2006-07) – 29pts

Rob Blake (2007-08) – 31pts

Larry Murphy (1999-00) – 40pts

Ray Bourque (1998-99) – 57pts

Nik Lidstrom (2008-09) – 59pts

Now, one thing nobody is talking about is how many games we should expect Keith to play and I get why it’s not a point of conversation, he’s kept himself in remarkable shape. My thinking is that after looking at that list, there are very few names who played a full season on it and the Oilers should be prepared to have a capable defender to spot check on the 2nd pair in the event that Keith can’t go.

The counterargument to this is that less stress — playing behind Darnell Nurse on what should be a better team — will make a world of difference.

“His advanced numbers weren’t as good as they could have been or should have been, but he was playing with a couple guys who probably shouldn’t have been playing in the league,” a Western-based NHL scout says.

…the Oilers could try to bring back his former offensive impact by playing him in favourable minutes with their best forwards, as Chicago did with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat last season. He’s only a year removed from playing at a 37-point pace.
Cleaning up his transition game, particularly his breakouts, could also boost Keith’s offence within the Oilers’ rush-based style.
Where Keith primarily needs to improve is on the back end, especially considering the potential instability of the Oilers’ goalie tandem.
The coaches can also put Keith in a better position to succeed by keeping him out of leading minutes.
It’s possible Keith can be a capable depth defender in a lesser role and with a better partner than years past. But his skill isn’t the sole reason he was brought to Edmonton; his intangible qualities and pedigree matter to an Oilers team that has championship hopes.
Adding leadership from a proven winner like Keith has its importance, but it came at a steep cost in the acquisition price.
The data and video paint a different picture than the reputation and those with a loaded interest in Keith succeeding, but the situation is different enough that only time will tell.

BLH’s Thoughts: Using a handful of visuals and TWO video clips can tell you what he’s done (to the most minimal of degrees) but it’s not a good way to represent what Duncan Keith is capable of.

All the Oilers have to do with this defenseman is to tell him to go out and play his game. He’s been around long enough that he’ll be able to make adjustments on his own so as to prevent the coaching staff from having to treat him with kid’s gloves and said coaching staff will be able to move things around him so as to keep him in his “zone of success”.

This article was pretty one-sided and that disappoints me, but if you needed more ammo for argument against the Oilers bringing in a 3-time Stanley Cup champion, it’s all here for a surface level debate.

I’m not surprised with the tone of this piece though. It seems to me that DNB has entrenched himself into the anti-Holland crowd since Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones were dealt and that’s a shame because in the past I’ve enjoyed his articles. His content is slanted now though…

Daniel Nugent-Bowman had no intention of showing how Duncan Keith could bounce back this year because he didn’t want to or he couldn’t because he didn’t know how which is pretty damning considering the resources he has at his disposal.

Well, the die have been cast and if the former Norris Trophy winner upstages everybody and has himself even an average year, there will be a lot of journalists and bloggers with egg on their face.

Just imagine if Keith has a good year…

The Hockey Writers

10 Oilers’ Must-Watch Games in 2021-22

Oct. 13 vs. Vancouver Canucks

This happens to also be the Oilers’ home opener, and the team will be playing in front of a packed arena… Last season, these teams played in 10 games. The Oilers took the season series, winning six of the games, but dropping two of the final three.

Oct. 16 vs. Calgary Flames

After a long-awaited return, fans should be filling the arenas, home and away, for the Battle of Alberta that should prove to be exciting hockey to watch. To make it even better for Oilers fans, the game is at home, so the team will have the support of the fans.

Nov. 1 vs. Seattle Kraken

This will be the first time Adam Larsson will be on the other side of the ice from the team since being selected and signing with the Kraken. We will have to keep an eye on how his play translates to the Kraken’s roster. The other former Oiler in the team is Jordan Eberle, one of the highlights of the players Seattle selected.

Nov. 16 at Winnipeg Jets

This is the first time the Oilers will be returning to Winnipeg for a game that matters since being swept by them in the first round of the 2020-21 playoffs…

Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

This is always a highly anticipated matchup when two of the faces of hockey over the past decade and a half, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, face off. Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Oilers for the one and only game in Edmonton between the clubs in 2021-22.

BLH’s Thoughts: The games I’m looking forward to are the following,

Dec.11th vs. Carolina – Ethan Bear’s Return!

Feb.22nd vs. Tampa Bay – How do these Oilers stack up against the Champs?

Mar.21st vs. Colorado – Edmonton’s main Stanley Cup rivals in the Western Conference.

Spector’s Hockey

BOSTON HOCKEY NOW: Jimmy Murphy recently reported Charlie McAvoy is putting his focus on this season but the 23-year-old Bruins defenseman knows he’s got a big payday coming. A restricted free agent with arbitration rights next summer, he’s in the final season of a three-year deal with an annual average value of $4.9 million.

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH: Brian Hedger recently reported Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Joonas Korpisalo claims he’s not bothered by the club signing teammate and fellow netminder Elvis Merzlikins to a long-term extension… The two goaltenders maintain a good relationship but Hedger feels Korpisalo’s days with the Jackets are numbered.