Edmonton Oilers Talk: “Duncan Keith has looked worse than he did in Chicago…” Says One Blogger

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Oil on Whyte

The Edmonton Oilers need more from Duncan Keith

Granted it is just two games into the season, but Duncan Keith has looked worse than he did in Chicago through two games, and the stats are not disagreeing. Keith’s Corsi and Fenwick percentages are at an all-time low with 32.1 and 38.1 respectively.

BLH’s Thoughts: Well, it’s clear this is a case of somebody looking at the wrong numbers on Natural Stat Trick (or where ever because NST’s numbers don’t reflect what this writer is stating), coming to the wrong conclusion, and then looking to leverage the bad info into an article.

The fact of the matter is, Keith has been fine so far and his fancy stats reflect that but you need to look at the REL (relative to teammates) numbers in order to separate his performances from his teammates. It just clears things up from an individual point of view.

CF% rel: -7.00

FF% rel: 2.73

SF% rel: 0.15

GF% rel: 16.67

xG% rel: 7.21

SCF% rel: 1.61

HDCF% rel: 14.22

HDGF% rel: -50.00

So, if you want to take the two negatives from that list of metrics (after two games…) and come to some convoluted conclusion that Duncan Keith needs to bring more to the ice than he has, go right ahead, but proceed at your own peril.

The Athletic

First impressions of 2021-22 Oilers — is this strong start sustainable?

Three lines who can compete, a second pairing that represents strong improvement over last year’s early days (even if it is just two games), and a near-perfect start from Smith. Hyman is a perfect-fit free agent that looks like a home run despite the cost.
The Second Line: The shot share (53 percent) is strong after 21 minutes, the line has yet to score or give up a goal five-on-five. There’s also a tidy edge in high-danger scoring chances (6-2, according to Natural Stat Trick) and that suggests it’s only a matter of time before the line delivers goals.
The Third Line: Ryan and Foegele have played almost 19 minutes together five on five, and own a 50 percent share in goals and shots through two games.
The shot share for the McDavid line, concerns about Tyson Barrie’s chaotic start, Tippett’s tendency to run Mike Smith hard when he’s hot, and low fourth-line usage.
- Tippett likes to run the McDavid line with the Darnell Nurse-Tyson Barrie pairing, but the first two games show some cracks and holes. The line has played 28 five-on-five minutes, with a 2-1 edge in goals but a 42 percent shot share.
Puljujarvi has taken another step forward, the gifted Bouchard is finding his way and the teams around Edmonton in the Pacific Division are either off to slow starts, running into injury issues, or both.
How well have Keith and Ceci played together? Pretty well, considering Keith didn’t really have a training camp and the duo has been involved in one game that involved score effects. The Keith-Ceci combination has played 28 minutes together five-on-five, with an 11-13 (45.8 percent) shot share and 2-1 goals.
This season, Nurse-Barrie (1-1), Keith-Ceci (2-1) and Bouchard with Koekkoek/Russell (0-0) are a combined 3-2 after two games.
Smith has been fire in his two 2021-22 games. He has stopped 55 of 57 shots five-on-five (.965) and it’s possible we see him play the majority of Edmonton’s games early.
A year ago many believed (and stated) the Mike Smith signing was too risky. Smith was brilliant all year. Holland took massive criticism over the Keith deal, could it work out in similar fashion?

BLH’s Thoughts: I always love these early season articles, I mean, of course the form is sustainable. When hasn’t a team who’s started the year 2-0-0 gone on to finish the year 82-0-0? Conversely, I can’t remember a club that has lost it’s first two games to ever win another one that season…

I get it. What else is a somebody going to entitle his post when he or she is talking about early season impressions and often it’s not even the original author of the post that gives the article its title. Perhaps it’s pointless to even comment on it and who am I to say what makes a good title or not considering I use quotes for the most part? I’ll just say this, I much prefer LT’s use of song lyrics but I understand that you’ve got to pitch to your desired audience too.

Anyway…

Can the Edmonton Oilers stay above water considering their current form? I don’t want to speculate on that yet because I haven’t seen them play a top team in the league and that won’t happen until they meet Philly and Vegas later this month. The team has been okay so far, but as LT points to, there are cracks in the foundation. Mind you, players like Puljujarvi, Hyman, and Smith are playing, they might be able to mud over said cracks for the time being.

Spector’s Hockey

GOPHXN.COM: Craig Morgan reports it’s no secret Phil Kessel wants to be traded. He also indicated the Arizona Coyotes are “working feverishly to grant his wish.”

THE ATHLETIC: Mark Lazerus believes Dylan Strome won’t be with the Chicago Blackhawks for much longer. He’s now their 14th forward and they can’t send him to the minors because they know he won’t clear waivers.

NEW YORK POST: Mollie Walker reports Rangers winger Vitali Kravtsov has returned to Russia after refusing to report to their AHL affiliate in Hartford last week.