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The Athletic
The NHL’s top 10 regression candidates for 2021-22
Darnell Nurse, LD, Edmonton Oilers
- Edmonton’s No. 1 defender exploded offensively, ranking second among all blueliners with 16 goals in 56 games and finishing fifth among his peers with 23 five-on-five points, entering the summer with just one year left on his contract.
- All but one of Nurse’s 16 goals came at even-strength where it’s typically quite difficult for a defender to put themselves in prime scoring positions.
- No NHL defender who’s appeared in at least 1000 minutes has managed to maintain a double-digit shooting percentage over the span of the last three seasons. That spells trouble for Nurse who went from scoring on 2.9 percent of his shots in 2019-20 to 10.3 percent of his shots last season.
- Nurse should continue reaping the rewards of playing more than half his five-on-five minutes alongside Connor McDavid but considering his previous career high for goals was 10, it seems reasonable to deduce his scoring rate will decline in 2021-22.
BLH’s Thoughts: Well, one thing that’s always going to be is that Nurse will play most of his 5v5 with McDavid and his shooting percentage might drop this year, but not as drastic as one might think. Maybe it’ll go down a couple of points but not to 3% and so he’ll continue to score in the double-digits well into his 30s I believe.
Whilst I agree that Darnell may have a goal-scoring regression, I wonder if his point totals stay the same or rise in 2021-22?
Bleacher Report
Will Connor McDavid Ever Win the Cup in Edmonton?
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Yes, They Can!
- What’ll matter most to GM Ken Holland when it comes to this team is getting a goaltender.
- There are always some available when the deadline approaches, and he’s smart and savvy enough to find the right one. Imagining Anton Khudobin in an Edmonton sweater come playoff time suddenly makes the idea that they could win in the short term a little less ridiculous.
Abbey Mastracco: Maybe, but Not This Year!
- The Oilers have five seasons to figure it out before his contract expires and seemingly have the right people in place to get McDavid to the promised land, but defense and goaltending will need to be bolstered in the coming years to capitalize on having the best player in the world.
Lyle Richardson: Band-Aid Solutions Won’t Work for the Oilers or McDavid
- McDavid won’t get a Cup in Edmonton if the Oilers fail to address their significant weaknesses over the remaining five years of his contract.
- Stanley Cup champions tend to have a dependable starting goaltender, a strong No. 1 defenseman and scoring depth at right wing. The Oilers lack all three.
BLH’s Thoughts: It’s funny, the Oilers had a top-ten goaltending tandem last year despite Koskinen playing the first 12 or 13 games of the season when Mike Smith got hurt and folks are still complaining about Edmonton’s netminding… I’m tellin’ ya, I don’t think they’re going to be as poor as some reckon in 2021-22.
Will McDavid win a Cup with the Oilers? I think he will. The Pieces are slowly falling into place, but the club’s momentum is strong right now and the major players are young. There’s lots of time to bring Lord Stanley’s cup back to it’s rightful home.
Spector’s Hockey
OTTAWA SUN: Bruce Garrioch reports Senators head coach D.J. Smith is making plans to start the upcoming season without Brady Tkachuk. The 21-year-old left winger’s contract talks with management remain at a stalemate.
TSN: Pierre LeBrun considers Tomas Hertl an early name to watch for on this season’s trade-bait board. The 27-year-old San Jose Sharks center is slated to become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end.
Darren Dreger believes the Arizona Coyotes’ Phil Kessel will also be on this season’s trade-bait list. He’s a UFA next summer and doesn’t appear to fit into the rebuilding Coyotes’ plans.
LeBrun believes Aleksander Barkov will be staying with the Florida Panthers for the rest of his career. There’s been a lot of talks between the 26-year-old center and the Panthers about a long-term contract extension.
BLH’s Thoughts: I wonder what happens if Kailer Yamamoto continues to struggle to get his name on the scoresheet this season? Could Ken Holland slide him into a package to bring in an established scoring RWer? It’d be a tad overkill to send him to Arizona for Kessel, but what if the Oilers could pilfer a bloated contract alongside Killer to bring in the Hot Dog Assassin?
Say what you will about Phil Kessel, he scores goals at an incredible rate and he’s only two and three seasons removed from an 80+pt and a 90+pt year from his time on the Penguins. Could Kessel be the new Brett Hull for Ken Holland 20 years later?
