Two days ago on Oilers Now!, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector and Edmonton Oilers play-by-play colourman Bob Stauffer mused about defensemen Adam Larsson’s and Oscar Klefbom’s futures and how they might impact the Oilers expansion draft plans as well as how they might navigate their upcoming off-season regarding Tyson Barrie and Ethan Bear.
I’m going to transcribe some of what they said and comment on it for you below.
BS – Bob Stauffer
MS – Mark Spector
BS: It’s interesting with Oscar Klefbom because we’re having an expansion draft. So what do you do? Do you protect him if you’re the Oilers or conversely, do you expose him? This is where you’d need to know what the insurance is on that deal. If Oscar had the shoulder issue before the 7yr extension that would lend me to believe that the contract would not be insured and for the listeners who aren’t aware, usually, rough estimate, in hockey insurance picks up 80% of the money on a deal.
So in Oscar’s case, we all know he’s a legit top-four NHL defenseman all day. If he’s available to the Oilers and you have Nurse and Klefbom as your top-two left-pairing defensemen next year, that’s a pretty good starting point, but there’s a question mark for me of do you protect him? Then the other part of it is, if you know he’s coming back and you definitely need Larsson back on the right-side because of what he brings (that shutdown presence), does that preclude you and take you out of the mix of re-signing Tyson Barrie?
BLH’s Thoughts: I think it’s very difficult to make this decision not knowing the full details of Oscar’s shoulder arthritis. Before he came over to North America to play, he had a significant shoulder injury and if it’s proven that that is where everything started, then Edmonton is kinda stuck paying out that contract if Klef decides not to play anymore. Maybe in that scenario, he’d be valuable because he could be placed on LTIR every year until the deal runs out and not only valuable to Edmonton but potentially to other teams too…
Regarding Ethan Bear, this is what I know from watching him in the minors the last couple of seasons. When he’s good, he’s really good, but when his game is off, he struggles are very noticeable. But the one thing I come back to is that the Oilers do not have a player on their team that has the scoring potential of Tyson Barrie aside from Evan Bouchard and we might not see that for another two or three years.
Now, it’s nice that the Oilers have all these young defenders coming, but they won’t be ready for, again, two or three seasons. By ready, I mean full-time proper NHL d-men that can have a positive impact on the ice. This team is right on the cusp of becoming a league powerhouse and going from an older d-core to a younger one will set that status back in my opinion.
MS: It precludes Tyson Barrie from hitting a home-run here, I would say that to you. I think Ken Holland, at this point, has built his financial model around having Klefbom back. In the end, he’s a very good player on a very good contract. They may come out of surgery and plans may change but at this point, you’re trying to build the best team you can and imagine how good this team would be with a healthy Oscar Klefbom as a top-two guy on the left-side.
So, now you move on. There’s a lot of things here, Bob. Let’s say they go the 7-3-1 route in expansion and protect three defenseman, which is what you’d expect, right? You’re protecting Nurse and let’s say you sign Larsson before the expansion draft, which is highly likely, he’s going to say, “If I’m signing there, you’ve got to give me a no-move.” Now I’m protecting him and I’ve got one guy left here. If I sign Barrie I’m protecting Barrie and leaving Klefbom open. If I don’t sign Barrie, now he’s going to be UFA and who knows what’s going to happen? Do I protect Klefbom with the iffy shoulder or do I Ethan Bear? You know, it’s a real puzzle and Kenny Holland is the puzzle master, he’s going to have to figure it out.
BLH’s Thoughts: Look, if it was me, I would do my best not to have any deals with my UFAs announced with the league until after the July 21st expansion draft was completed. I don’t know why the Oilers would officially re-sign them before that since free agency doesn’t open until 28th of July and with the draft plopped right in the middle of those two dates on the 23rd and 24th.
So, in that scenario, Edmonton wouldn’t need to protect RNH, Larsson, or Barrie, right? They could put Nurse, Bear, and Lagesson or Jones on their list for d-men. Therefore, it’s not much of a puzzle and I’m kind of surprised Spector didn’t bring that option up. Unless I’ve got something all wrong with my understanding of the expansion draft rules…
BS: Just in terms of the difference between Barrie and Bear, basically, Barrie creates more offense but gives more up and Bear is actually the better 5v5 defenseman and he’s at a decent price point and I look at the Klefbom variable as potentially altering what could happen with Tyson Barrie because Klefbom can play on the powerplay, Nurse can play on the powerplay, and Oh, by the way, they have a potential right-shot option that they don’t have to protect in Bouchard.
So, if they know Klefbom is coming back then you don’t need Barrie. I think we both agree, they definitely need what Larsson brings, do you agree?
BLH’s Thoughts: I agree on both points, that Barrie is surplus to requirements IF Klefbom is coming back and the Oilers need what Larsson brings.
Here’s my thing though, do you want Darnell Nurse skating 28 minutes a night? You don’t want to wear the guy down so that half way through his next long-term deal that’s paying him $7.5M or more he starts running into injury problems. Although, on the other side of the coin, if Klef is on the 2nd pair with Larsson, he’d be around to cover and then there’d be a guy like Caleb Jones or Philip Broberg to cover Oscar’s spot on the 2nd pair.
What if Klef doesn’t come back though? I think you’ve got to consider keeping Barrie and moving one of Bear or Bouchard and then signing a depth right-shot NHL veteran as a no.7 blueliner. Maybe that’s Travis Hamonic or Sami Vatanen, who the Oilers have had interest in prior. Perhaps that’s Kevin Miller or Greg Pateryn too.
MS: Oh, for sure and at a lesser number than, you know, he’s not going to be a $5M player. Larsson makes $4.1M right now, I’m not sure you’d have to pay him $4.1M on the next deal, not in this economy.
BS: I’m gonna tell ya, I think it’s going to be somewhere between $3.5M and $4M.
BLH’s Thoughts: Funny, at the beginning of the year, Stauffer was saying that Larsson would be willing to come back at a significantly lower AAV. I could be wrong, but I remember the number $2.5M being thrown around. Times have changed… That said, I love Larsson and would like to see him come back for another three or four seasons at around $3.5M.
MS: There ya go. There’s a guy you get back at the same number, let’s say for fun. I’ve said this since you and I have known each other, every team I’ve covered that wins has that defenseman, right? They’ve got Matt Greene, they’ve got Brooks Orpik, or they’ve got Jason Smith, or they’ve got Rob Scuderi. You know, just keep going down the list, every good team has Ken Daneyko on it sitting there on the 3rd pair. When you’re down 3-2 late in the game he’s not playing but when you’re up 3-2 in the game, boy, is he ever playing and Adam Larsson is that guy for Edmonton. That is a component of a championship team that they have that isn’t that expensive and that they’ve got to keep.
I’d absolutely fall over if Ken Holland didn’t manage to keep Adam Larsson on this team.
BLH’s Thoughts: 100%. Ken Holland knows the value that a player like Adam Larsson brings to his team but he also understands that veteran NHL coaches love these kind of defensemen even more.
Who’s winning the Larsson for Hall trade now?…
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