It’s been quite the rollercoaster so far for Edmonton Oilers fans with the team starting the season 3-6-0 and then turning it around to go 10-2-0 since. I couldn’t be happier to see Darnell Nurse developing into the defender a lot hoped he would, Jesse Puljujarvi is what supporters of his always knew he would be, and the club is finally getting the production from its depth players that it has needed for so so long. But… Not to be a Debbie Downer, I’m cautious that things will continue in this manner.
I have a feeling that this season will be an anomaly on multiple fronts and what I mean by that is since every team is playing within their division only and the travel has been cut down substantially, I reckon that some stats are going to be inflated. Now, that’s not to take away from the talent and skill of the players, I just think that when you’re seeing the same opponents nine or ten times a year in a shortened season, you’re going to have the book on them memorized.
I believe the highs of the season will be REALLY high and the lows are going to be really low. For instance, do you believe that Carey Price is really a sub .900 goalie? Is Mike Smith a .940 netminder? Can Auston Matthews sustain a 21% shooting percentage? Luke Glendening in Detroit has a 70% faceoff percentage! Darnell Nurse is tied with Quinn Hughes and Mikhail Sergachev for most 5v5 points amongst defensemen this season… How long can Adam Larsson outscore Taylor Hall?
Adam Larsson has more goals than Taylor Hall.
That is the tweet. pic.twitter.com/KsULdCYC6q
— BLH (Edmonton Oilers Enthusiast} (@BeerLeagueHeroe) February 25, 2021
It’s a weird season, so naturally, weird things are going to happen. That said, getting back to the Oilers, in this heater they’re on they’re only above water in a few of the advanced metrics, namely the ones that tell us about goals scored.
GF% (58.63) – 4th
SCGF% (58.82) – 4th
HDGF% (60.61) – 8th
Every possession (shots) stat, they’re under 50%…
CF% (47.49) – 23rd
FF% (47.52) – 24th
SF% (46.82) – 29th
SCF% (48.53) – 20th
HDCF% (48.24) – 19th
Could this be due to leading early in games so often though and simply a result of score effects? That would be the counter-question worth asking.
The team is shooting at a 12.5% clip too and I wonder if that’s a bit high.
I just see the team losing the possession battle and it concerns me. Last season, the Oilers were under 50% in EVERY advanced shot and goal metric and nobody batted an eye… They went into the play-ins and got their asses handed to them to everyone’s shock, but should it have been a surprise knowing how their season had gone possession-wise?
In addition to that, how long can Edmonton’s goalies weather 30+ shots per night? It’s not like they’re the reincarnations of Curtis Joseph…
I’m not saying the fancies are the be-all-end-all, of course not, that’s insane, but they do offer some insight in certain scenarios that you won’t get from looking at the standings alone. The fact of the matter is, if the Oilers slow down a bit here, what will be the reason? I think it’ll be defensive breakdowns and for a team that is supposedly turning the corner defensively, that’d be a big problem since the numbers are sort of forecasting it…
So when the Oilers are rolling over their opponents like they are, I feel it’s important not to get hung up on the highs and as fun as it is to expect win after win after win, it’s much safer to expect a loss now and then. You’ll save yourself some grief.
I’m sure there was more I wanted to say there, but for the life of me, I can’t remember what it was. Let’s move on to the rumor.
Have you ever noticed there’s always been an urgency to find a right-shot center who can win draws in Edmonton? I’ve been championing Luke Glendening for years with no luck. Instead, the team decided to go with Kyle Turris this year which I was okay with at the time. He was a cheap signing and a safe bet to make, but man has he turned into Jussi Jokinen 2.0.
So here’s a name we may or may not hear more of in the future, Brandon Sutter.
First off, he makes too much money right now (He’s in the last year of a deal that pays him $4.5M per year I believe) and his possession metrics are atrocious. So we won’t talk about those in detail…
This season, for the struggling Canucks, he has a 53% faceoff percentage and four even-strength goals to his name so far, but that’s just the cherry on top. He’s not the kind of player who’ll bring you a lot of offense, but he is the type you’d like to have on a playoff run and that’s where I’m going.
He’s is a rightie who wins draws and plays the kind of game you’d expect a guy with the last name Sutter to play. He’s old school and hockey teams who plan to go on a run for the Stanley Cup employ these players.
Do you think it would be possible for the Oilers and the Canucks to get together and make a trade that would see Kyle Turris sent to Vancouver for Sutter with salary retained? Maybe a sweetener sent Vancouver’s way as well?
Now, if that’s not possible in your mind, what about signing him this summer when the free-agent prices are going to be low low low? Is he worth Turris-like money?
Before you answer, we should consider who the Oilers have in their bottom-six right now and who they will have coming. Fair?
Based on his history, Jujhar Khaira is playing out of this world right now. Could that be because he’s trying to earn himself a contract or due to the fact that if he doesn’t he could be out of the league by next year? Who knows, regardless, he’s been a good soldier this year.
The aforementioned Turris is signed on for another year. What happens with him if he’s cashed out? I suppose the Oilers could bury him in the minors or send him to Ference Island if they need the money.
Gaetan Haas is a player that everyone has seemed to grow fond of. He’s fast, aggressive, smart on the ice, but he can’t score and he’s not great on faceoffs… The other thing is, does he want to stay in Edmonton or the NHL for that matter? Nothing against Edmonton, but Switzerland is a pretty rad place to live and he’s a superstar over there in that league…
Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway are coming and will be in Oilers silks sooner than later. Would bringing in Sutter for a year or two be detrimental to the progress of these two prospects? Some believe they’re both destined to be wingers are the NHL level, some think they’ll be bottom-six pivots…
I’ve always sort of been enamored with the idea of a Sutter playing for the Oilers, but that’s just the fan in me. I also like blue-collar players like Matt Hendricks and Josh Archibald more than some top-six skillers though… So what do I know?
What do you think?
There is a saying that goes something like this,
You’re never as good as you think you are and you’re never as bad as they say you are.
Let’s hope this team can find it’s balance this year and be in a position to build on that for the seasons to come.
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