Two days ago on Oilers Now (630CHED), host Bob Stauffer and Sportsnet’s Mark Spector discussed what the future of Edmonton’s big UFAs might be. Should they bring them all back? Who should be the priority? Could some of them walk and sign elsewhere?
All three questions specifically pertain to one, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins…
Today, I’m going to transcribe some of that conversation and give you my two cents. Also, I’ve got a tidbit of insider info for you that may or may not give you something to chew on with regards to how you feel about what the Oilers could be planning to do with The Nuge.
MS = Mark Spector
BS = Bob Stauffer
Just to preface the following, Bob and Mark are talking about who should be the priority for Ken Holland amongst his big UFAs in Tyson Barrie, Adam Larsson, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this upcoming off-season.
MS: Nugent-Hopkins, for me Bob, is a probably. I guess I want to say to you, what could you do for $6M in this current NHL economy? You could get TWO players that certainly do the equivalent to what Nugent-Hopkins does for ya and maybe more. What do you think?
BS: Here’s the challenge I have with RNH. I’ve done a lot of events with Ryan over the last several years. He’s involved with some cystic fibrosis. In fact, he’s done more events over the last ten years… He’s accessible, he’s out there in the community, he cares about community. You know what kind of guy he’s like to deal with… He’s the type of guy you want your daughter to marry. He’s that guy, that’s who he is.
BUT! We’re 40 games into the year here and he’s on pace for a full season for a 56pt campaign, he’s spent almost entirely, at least 80% of the season with McDavid or Draisaitl. So, granted, 20% of the year he’s had to center a line by himself and that might be high.Mark, he has TWO primary even-strength assists. He doesn’t put up points at even strength but he’s good on the penalty kill and he’s a terrific powerplay player.
I look at him and think, “Find a way to get it done.” If Rick Veillette was listening to the show, you know what Rick, get it done here in Edmonton. Get it done.
My attitude is, I know that there’s not a compelling analytics argument for Nugent-Hopkins, Mark, but I think this is a case where the player brings additional things, find a way to get it done.
MS: Well I guess I would say that I want to compartmentalize what he does for you. To me, he’s not a centerman anymore. You’re dealing with a left-winger here. Yeah, he slots into the center slot but he hasn’t produced when he’s been a center this year and he’s still never going to be a faceoff guy, Bob. He’s a 45% faceoff guy.
What kind of player would you lose if you didn’t have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Well, you’d lose a penalty killer but the 3C you’re going to sign is going to be that guy anyway. You’d lose a left-winger that can play well with Draisaitl and McDavid but I think I’d say to you, Bob, that there’s lots of left-wingers out there who could play pretty well with McDavid and Draisaitl.
Now, you’d need a 2nd left-winger because right now they have RNH on left-wing and they STILL require a top-six left-winger. So basically they’d need two good left-wingers and a third line center.
For $6M, could you find the replacements for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? I wonder. Could you find those replacements in a bigger rougher body that’s harder to play against? I wonder. Could you find a guy who’s better on faceoffs when he plays center? I wonder.
BLH’s Thoughts: You know when the media starts talking about how personable a player is and how nice they are with regards to why the club should keep him that his time is up in that market.
My feeling is that similar to the trade deadline, Holland has a number in mind for all of his UFAs and if they’re unwilling to meet that figure, he’s comfortable with letting them walk. They are his rentals for this year that he didn’t have to spend anything on at the deadline, right?
So if Nuge walks, he’ll definitely have some targets like the guy you’ll read about below. If Barrie walks, maybe that’s because the reports on Oscar Klefbom are more promising than before. Also, the team has an overripe Evan Bouchard chomping at the bit here and we can’t forget about Ethan Bear either.
The internal options are there.
Spector said in that same interview that he expects Adam Larsson to return and possibly at a price point that is lower that what he currently makes. I know there was some talk at the beginning of the year, when the Oilers were in that slump, that Larsson might come back for around $2.5M per year but I would say that isn’t the case any more. The number I’m hearing is $3.5M-ish which is quite acceptable in my eyes.
BS: There’s a guy out there, Rich Winter represents Tomas Tatar. He’s got really good analytics for pts/60 @ even strength. Would you rather have Tomas Tatar or Nugent-Hopkins? They both had 61pts last year, Spec.
MS: What’s Tatar going to make? What’s he making this year? I think he’s a $4M guy. My question to you would be, Bob, if you’re telling me that I’m not taking RNH and I am taking Tatar, if I pick up $2M in cap space that means I can find another player. I think it really becomes, to me, about what Nugent-Hopkins is going to be paid.
$6M was in the old economy. $6M was when he was a center. $6M was when they regarded him as someone who was going to be a bigger point producer. I think at his age, we like the player, we all like the player, this is the player he is. There’s no more prospect here. There’s no more, “He’s going to improve this, he’s going to improve that.” I know exactly the player Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is. Is he worth $6M in this economy? I think that’s a fair question to ask.
Let me add one more thing, if you could promise me that I could have Adam Lowry (WPG) as a UFA, I’d take him and I’d let RNH walk and with the extra money, I’d find a left-winger for that money. What about you?
BS: I would sign RNH, sign another LW and have RNH as an option at center…
BLH’s Thoughts: Ken Holland has said in the past that you can’t have the same team every year and there has to be change. So I believe it’s reasonable to expect RNH to be playing elsewhere next season.
As for the LWs that Spector and Stauffer are speaking to, Tatar has a history with Holland from his time in Detroit plus he’s good for 50pts at least. The last three years in MTL his pts/60 relative has been over 2.30 and his xGF% over 8.40. Meaning when he’s on the ice, it tilts in his favor in a big way.
The other “bigger rougher body to play against”, that has to be Zach Hyman and the Oilers would most likely have to pay the same for him as they would RNH. The two aren’t as comparable stat-wise but he’s got the kind of playing style and heart that would have Oilers fans reliving the old Ryan Smyth days.
I will throw one wildcard name out there for you though and that’s Jaden Schwartz. He’s a good ol’ Saskatchewan boy and Holland would definitely be familiar with him going back to the old Central Division days.
Offensively, Schwartz and Nuge are comparable but the Wilcox, SK native has had troubles staying healthy during his career and that could be a drawback or it could be a factor in signing him to a deal that is lower than what he makes now.
Early in his career, Schwartz has played on the PK a lot. He was used on the Blues’ first PK unit but it looks like he’s been relegated to the second or third unit now. From 2013-2016, he was averaging over a minute on the PK per game but from 2017 to now, he’s only getting about 30-35 seconds. I’m betting his ankle injuries probably have contributed to that.
A big selling point for the Oilers to consider Schwartz would be his 54pts in 84 playoff games. This guy comes to play in the post-season.
For me, I’m okay if they let Barrie and RNH walk but Holland needs to invest that money very wisely. I think adding Tatar would be a good start but I’d also want to see the team really shore up that third line center spot. Be that with Brandon Sutter or Derek Ryan or both, whatever. Don’t f*ck that up because it’s long been a sore spot for the Oilers. Hell, if Philip Danault is willing and the price is right, grab him all day long.
There are tons of options for bottom-six centers so that spot shouldn’t be a problem. Left-wing, not so much. Holland can’t muck that up.
If Dmitry Kulikov does well, see if he’d be interested in coming back on a similar deal for another year to allow Broberg and others to marinate.
For the netminder’s position, I like the idea of moving Koskinen for whatever feasible return. Possibly even adding a sweetener to move him and then re-signing Smith and signing Chris Driedger (who just happens to have an Edmonton-based agent). This position has a lot of potential options as well.
Edmonton has a possible $30M in cap space to work with. Ken Holland’s work will be cut out for him.
The Tidbit
So, what I’ve heard from a source on the West Coast is that the Seattle Kraken really like RNH and they know that he’s probably not a no.1 center in this league anymore but they’re willing to pay him like one and the same sentiment goes for Tyson Barrie.
As far as what’s been reported and speculated upon publicly, it sounds like the Oilers have set a ceiling with Nuge’s new deal around $6M-$6.5M and the Kraken could possibly be willing to top that by a million dollars or more. Barrie would be in a range closer to what he made in Colorado from what I’m told.
So it comes down to if these two gentlemen want to win or hit the jackpot. Who says it can’t be both? That said, they’d both be closer to where they grew up in Seattle and they’d be the face of that franchise but they’d also get to visit Edmonton multiple times per year when they played the Oilers.
Give us a follow on the socials!
- Youtube: Beer League Heroes Channel
- Twitter: @beerleagueheroe
- Instagram: @beerleagueheroes
- Facebook: Beer League Heroes
