Famed Edmonton Oilers blogger and analytics aficionado Darcy McLeod aka “Woodguy” was on Oilers Now yesterday morning talking about all things Oilers-related with Bob Stauffer and I thought he made some interesting points during his spot on the radio program. So, let me share a few of those with you!
Watch the entire “Punch-up in Piestany” right here!!!
On the Oilers Being Ranked 4th/5th Best Team in the All-Canadian Division in a Recent Pole ran by The Athletic.
Recency bias is strong in a lot of people and they (the Oilers) crapped the bed in the playoffs, so everyone is kind of mentally down on them. But any kind of realistic analysis wouldn’t have them in the four or five spot.
Obviously they (the US-based NHL executives who participated in the pole) didn’t pay attention to what was really wrong with the Oilers 5×5 last year and they forget special teams as well.
Look at 5×5 last year, Bob, when Sheahan was on for the Oilers they were -20, when he was off they were +4. All the statistical analysis on the Oilers being poor 5×5 really rotates around Sheahan’s poor goal percentage and poor shot percentage. The Oilers got beat quite soundly when he was on the ice.
Then you had that awful December where everyone’s stats kind of took a kicking as well. McDavid, on his knee that he was rehabbing all year was looking pretty tired, and he didn’t have great help the second half of the year until Tippett put Nuge on his line and that didn’t happen until late.
It doesn’t matter how great a player is, you still need good players to play with.
I agree with WG here but the pole was kinda shit anyhow. Everybody forgets about that December slide the team went on and then judges the entire year on four games played in a bubble after months away from the ice… Any team can go on a 1-3 stretch at any time during any season.
This is a club that is on the rise and undoubtedly will get better and better. Aside from the Maple Leafs, is there another team in Canada that the same can be said for? Maybe the Canucks?
Is Kyle Turris an Upgrade on Riley Sheahan?
He kind of has to be, Bob. There’s really no place else to go. Honestly, if you’re going to pick one guy whose results were not that far off of Sheahan’s the last few years, that’s Turris.
He was horrendous for the last two years in Nashville. It’s really not pretty to look at.
Now, his expected goals were much better than his actual goal share. Shooting went to die when he was on the ice, the on-ice SH% was terrible, and he had a negative affect on everyone he played with. So it wasn’t just who he was playing with, when he moved up into the top-6, he dragged that line down.
Hopefully what’s been wrong with Turris was more mental than Physical,
He’s going to get some decent linemates here. Tyler Ennis is a positive influence on all of his linemates over the past number of years, right? Even Joakim Nygard’s little sample last year, he’s a positive influence. Puljujarvi is going to be a much different player than everyone remembers.
That’s a really reasonable 3rd line when you consider the ability to at least saw-off or not lose the goal share if not win it.
If Turris doesn’t work out, they can slide him to the wing beside McDavid or Leon and move one of Kahun or RNH to the 3C, but things would have to be dire in order for that to happen because that scenario is not ideal in the least.
One thing to note though and I’m not really sure if it would be wise to count on this, but each time Turris has joined a new club, he’s seen a bump in production.
Dominik Kahun: “Hotter than the Sun” Since Coming to the NHL
Kahun has been crazy good. He’s running hotter than the sun and has run hotter than the sun since he got to the NHL.
He’s got a 58.8% goal-share 5×5. It’s ridiculous, Bob! The cat scores! He’s something like top-25 in 5×5 goals per ice-time in the NHL over the last two years. He can score.
He was brought in to play top-6. He’s a finisher. He could probably play with Draisaitl because you know that Tippett really really really wants Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid and that’s really important because I mentioned this earlier, Bob, even good players need good players to play with and McDavid w/Nugent-Hopkins had nearly 60% of the shot share together, The goal share was a little bit lagging behind. They were actually pretty damned good in the playoffs too, like that’s a killer first line.
If Draisaitl can do well with a couple of smaller wingers in Yamamoto and Kahun, that could be a top-six that you could trade chances with because McDavid always outscores his chances and will until the end of time and Draisaitl is starting to be that way from McDavid. That leaves a lot more better talent in the bottom-six as well.
The bottom-six on this Oilers team coming up hasn’t been this strong since 2006.
I’m excited to see Kahun work his magic with Draisaitl. The German Bombers could take the NHL by storm this year if everything goes to plan. What’s the over/under on how quick someone makes an “Axis Powers” joke with Yamamoto on that line too?…
On the other hand, I’ve always wondered why Kahun’s been the odd-man-out on every team he’s played for since joining the league…
The Back-up Goalie
The biggest question on the team is the backup goalie.
Back in August I ran a bunch of numbers for the goals saved above NHL average for all of the available goaltenders and Aaron Dell was probably dollar-for-dollar the best value available besides Anton Khudobin, believe it or not.
Aaron Dell had one really poor year in ’18/’19, otherwise he was better than the average goalie in ’17/’18, better in ’19/’20, and he’s only 31. He was a really good bet. He was a much better option than Mike Smith.
Tippett was talking about “Smitty and how he was good in the room and he was a loud guy and they needed loud guys”, I don’t know any of that stuff, I’m not looking at any of that stuff, that could all be true. He still needs to save more pucks than he has for the last two years. The last two years he’s been poor and he’s 39 and it’s not going to get better.
I’m sure there’s some statistical proof to support or refute this, but I noticed the Oilers play with a bit more swagger when Smith is in net. I mean, it’s kind of weird to say, but the club tends to mirror its netminder I find. When Koskinen is playing, the team is more cautious and subdued to an extent, whereas when Smith is in net, they play a lot more assertive.
I do wonder, if Aaron Dell was that good, why didn’t he simply take over Martin Jones’ spot as starter in San Jose? Further to that, why did the Sharks let him go? Is Devan Dubnyk that much better?
I like Mike Smith. I like the intensity he brings to the game and I like goalies who can play the puck as well as Smith can. That said, would I have been upset had the Oilers signed a better goalie? No, I wouldn’t have.
Is Edmonton a Legitimate Threat to come in First in the Canadian Division?
Oh yeah. There’s no question.
I don’t believe Calgary. I think they downgraded their defence. Markstrom… Boy, that’s a long time for a guy who’s really only kind of had one really good year. Kinda one and a half good years.
Leafs have question marks in goal and on defence.
Canucks, you know were kind of poor 5×5.
There’s a lot of “could bes” and “maybes” because if things fall right for the Oilers they could walk away with this thing and if they don’t fall right they could finish 5th or 6th, right? The teams could be that close.
Montreal has certainly upgraded their wings. They’re biggest problem was they couldn’t score, right? Their on-ice SH% has been garbage. They’re the best possession team in Canada, better than Toronto, but they can’t score. They never had any scoring talent. Now they’ve got some scoring talent.
The Jets still need help on defence.
Toronto’s got that great top-six, their bottom-six is okay. Questions on defence and which Andersen is going to show up?
Calgary, who’s the back-up goalie? They brought Rittich back, right? That’s not good.
Everyone’s got questions. There are no locks.
Oilers defence is a big question. Is Jones going to fill in for Klefbom? I think he will. Actually, I think the Oilers won’t miss a beat on defence.
In my mind, I think the Oilers are only rivaled by Montreal in this division. But as WG said above, each team has question marks and the Oilers are not exempt from that. He said he believes the defence won’t miss a beat, but I think they will. It’s going to be a bit more run and gun this year and if they stay alive, I reckon they’ll continue on with that strategy. If it fails, they’ll find a way to button down and alter the roster to support a more defensive style.
What do you think about Woodguy’s thoughts? Let us know in the comments below and don’t forget to check out his website!
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