“I don’t think Ceci is as big of a problem as he’s made out to be…” Says One Prominent Analytics Pundit

This is your TL/DR (too long, didn’t read) summary post where excerpts are taken from the best of the best when it comes to Edmonton Oilers blogs. BLH gives you his two cents on the latest posts being published in the Oilogosphere! Including those from Lowetide.ca, The Athletic, Oilersnation, The Cult of Hockey, Copper N Blue, Oil on Whyte, and more!

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The Athletic

Edmonton Oilers 2021-22 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

…this season the Oilers project to be Actually Good, rated as a borderline top five team in the league and projected to finish with 101 points.
In a weak Pacific Division, the Oilers are a near playoff lock at 88 percent and that means a pretty strong at winning the opening round and beyond.
Edmonton enters the season with a 20-to-1 shot at the Cup, the highest this model has ever been on the team.
Last season was one for the ages for McDavid, one of the most dominant single seasons in NHL history… Adjusted for era, it was tied for the eighth best scoring season ever and tied for fifth in the modern era.
By GSVA, Draisaitl is projected to be the league’s seventh most valuable player and combined with McDavid gives the Oilers an astonishing 10 wins of value combined between just two players.
The Oilers are an 81-point team without those two. Superstars matter.
To the team’s credit, the bottom six looks much improved compared to recent seasons.
Ryan and Foegele should finally be able to deliver — especially Ryan. He suppressed nearly half an expected goal per 60 relative to teammates last year which ranked third among forwards.
What hurts most, though, is the defence in front of those goalies and that’s the major difference between Edmonton and the top five teams in the league.
The problem is that the Oilers are starkly low on other options and that should’ve been higher on the priority list in this summer’s defensive makeover. That’s especially true because there’s an obvious heir apparent on the back end in Evan Bouchard who could’ve likely provided similar offensive upside while freeing up key cap space.
That leaves us with the team’s new-look second pair, expected to be the second worst in the league ahead of only Vancouver’s. To say I’m highly skeptical of Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci in a secondary role is probably an understatement.
Private data paints Keith in a brighter light as he is still quite capable at breaking the puck out…
I don’t think Ceci is as big of a problem as he’s made out to be…
Of all the teams projected to land in the league’s top 10, Edmonton’s place is among the riskiest and most volatile.

BLH’s Thoughts: Odd that the Oilers would get a somewhat positive review from one of the computer boys. Of course it’s laced with caveats, but either way, I’ll take it.

That stat on Derek Ryan is really fascinating to me. If he can have that kind of defensive impact alongside a guy who also puts up really great defensive metrics in Kailer Yamamoto, the LW on that line (Likely Foegele), will have some outstanding opportunities and not only that, but when’s the last time the Edmonton Oilers had a dedicated (and effective) shutdown line on forward?

I would like to say that we (the fans) shouldn’t focus on where the defensemen play within the lineup. Be it on the 2nd pair, 3rd pair, or the 1st, what we need to grind on is if the six blueliners as a group are doing their job. The reason I say that is because I reckon folks are going to drive themselves bonkers arguing where Keith, Ceci, Bouchard, Barrie, Koekkoek, etc. should be playing. The truth of the matter is, they can all play up and down the lineup and having that kind of roster flexibility will go a long way as the season wears on.

Am I scared that Ceci and Keith might shit the bed? Sure! I love Adam Larsson and him being gone leaves a ginormous crater on Edmonton’s blueline, but with that said, the new boys need some time to show you what they’ve got and they deserve that time.

Cult of Hockey

Analytics guys aren’t sure if Edmonton Oilers are great, but they are sure Duncan Keith isn’t

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, his ranking of the Edmonton Oilers as the sixth best team in the NHL, and a team projected to finish with 101 points.
Evolving Wild have the Oilers finishing with 94.8 points, good for just 13th overall in the NHL, and behind Seattle and Las Vegas in the Pacific Division.
Evolving Wild is not at all optimistic about is newcomer Duncan Keith, recently tweeting Keith is the third worst regular d-man in the NHL.
As for Keith, and Cody Ceci, get back to me after they’ve played at least five to ten games with the Oilers.
Have the analytics guys ever been wrong about an incoming player on the Oilers? Well, I remember reports that Patrick O’Sullivan, Benoit Pouliot and Mark Fayne were going to be good players in Edmonton, but that did not pan out. And I also recall grave doubts about Matt Hendricks, but he was an extremely useful Oilers player.
If Keith and Ceci fail to be that player, Edmonton will be hurting, though that hurt will be mitigated somewhat. Edmonton has other Top 4 options, it seems to me, namely Evan Bouchard at right defence and, if you squint hard enough and he stays healthy, Slater Koekkoek at left defence.
Even if Keith and Ceci can’t get it done, Edmonton has options on defence that will help them win.
If key players stay healthy, it’s hard to imagine this version of the Oilers won’t be the best version of the McDavid era, so 100 points should be well within their grasp.

BLH’s Thoughts: Well, let’s just start by saying the analytics community has never been wrong about anything. Ever. Valeri Nichuskhin is still a much better player than Leon Draisaitl and I’m shocked that the guys at Evolving Wild aren’t full-time NHL GMs right now.

With that out of the way, we can re-join reality and the reality is, where Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl go, the Edmonton Oilers will follow. You don’t need fancy algorithms and a super computer to figure that out. The catch this year being the club is deeper than it’s been since the 90s.

Bob Stauffer made an interesting point on his radio show yesterday morning, he wondered if teams might back off on the Oilers considering how good their PP is?

For Myself, I’m wondering if this year’s Oilers powerplay becomes the best of all-time? Zach Hyman and Jesse Puljujarvi are going to draw a shitload of calls early on in the season while the refs are on this anti-cross-checking kick. It might even behoove the club to stick weaker players in the net-front position to draw even more at 5v5.

There are going to be a lot of team scared to get a one, two, or three goal lead on Edmonton for fear of the refs “managing” the game because of that powerplay…

NHLTradeRumor.com

Darren Dreger reported via twitter “Sources say the Eichel saga may be shifting. Ongoing discussions and additional access to Jack Eichel’s medical file has helped teams with trade interest clearly see his situation. Both sides are hopeful something can be worked out soon with one of the clubs in the mix.”

As for teams with interest, the New York Rangers have been linked to Jack Eichel all offseason. The Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights and Columbus Blue Jackets have also shown significant interest.

Darren Dreger was on TSN Radio and he mentioned even with a home town discount the minimum Rielly would be seeking is $8 million/ per year which the Leafs cannot fit into their salary cap.

If Toronto misses the postseason or makes an early first round exit from the playoffs, the Leafs may look at trading one of the big four. Mitch Marner or William Nylander would likely be the candidates to be traded which would free up cap space to re-sign Rielly.