I had to use that sensationalist headline as it captures my most extreme feeling on the Oilers signing of Jakub Jerabek but in fact, I’m not as down on the signing as the headline suggests.
Here are the reasons I like the signing:
- Jerabek is young.
- The deal is only for $1M and can, for the most part, be buried in the AHL. (See: Al Montoya)
- The contract is only for a year.
This chart from Own the Puck Blog also tells us that Jerabek should be able to score wherever deployed.
OK. Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s talk about why it’s not the best use of funds and a roster space by Edmonton.
- Jon Willis was championing for him.
That right there should be a yellow flag as Willis is STILL talking about Cody Franson as being a player who could help the Oilers today. He brings up Benoit Pouliot still and I bet if you asked him, Mark Fayne would be another player he would speak highly of right now.
Good on Jon for calling this signing but be prepared for a “soft skill” defender that puts up nice numbers on a spreadsheet.
Though for my money the best fit is probably Jerabek, a 27-year-old whose mobility and skill with the puck are the nearest match out there for what a healthy Sekera could have done.
No, he isn’t. Jakub Jerabek isn’t even close to Andrej Sekera. Hell, Jerabek isn’t even close to Yohann Auvitu. The player that is closest in skill set to Sekera is Toby Enstrom. Near an exact match in every facet.
This is a player that couldn’t break 450 minutes TOI with Montreal or even 200 minutes TOI with Washington… How is he supposed to help the Oilers again?
Here is a scouting report on Jakub Jerabek from an Eastern source I trust.
"Jerabek is smart. He lazers the puck up the ice and gets pucks to the net.
He plays intense defensively, battles in the corners and provides strong net front.
Has upside."— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) August 21, 2018
I’ve read some say that Jerabek is a good passer and if he was THAT good, wouldn’t he have played more and/or received more PP time?
That chart comparing one of Edmonton’s first signings of the off-season, Kevin Gravel, to Jerabek is from Ryan Stimson’s Passing Project. It basically tells us how well players are at passing (amongst other things). You can mess around with it here.
Jerabek had near 60% offensive zone starts in Washington after being acquired for the playoff run. A run that only saw him suit up for 2 games while a rookie, Christian Djoos, played the other 22 games.
Jerabek obviously wasn’t trusted by Trotz in the playoffs and who can blame him? Jerabek was horrid. Jultz level tire fires defensively. Check his playoffs fancies here.
What about the regular season though? Is it possible that there was a reason Brian MacLellan took a chance on the young Czech?
His 5×5 possession stats were okay. Nothing amazing.
- CF/60 rel: 3.25
- CA/60 rel: -1.76
- FF/60 rel: 2.75
- FA/60 rel: 0.03
So I’m seeing a player that stayed afloat on both sides of the puck as it pertains to shots.
What about traditional shots and goals at 5×5?
- SF/60 rel: -0.18
- SA/60 rel: 2.84
- GF/60 rel: 0.07
- GA/60 rel: 0.14
So nothing to write home about there apart from his shots against per 60. That’s not really great. You generally want to see that in the minuses and with the goals, nothing really happened either way when he was on the ice.
Lastly, let’s look at scoring chances. Most importantly, high-danger scoring chances. How well did Jerabek defend the net front and slot area in his time with the Habs 5×5?
- HDCF/60 rel: 0.43
- HDCA/60 rel: 1.41
His high danger chances against are nearly 3x worse than his high danger chances for. That says to me, he’s 3x worse at defending than creating HD chances. Yikes.
To put that into perspective, Jerabek’s 0.43 HDCF/60 rel would’ve placed him 5th on the team behind Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Yohann Auvitu, and Eric Gryba.
How did Adam Larsson finish first with a score of 2.24? I thought he was a shut-down defender? He was 6th in the NHL overall in that stat. Crazy!
Anyways, Jerabek’s HDCA/60 rel of 1.41 would’ve had him in second last place with only Keegan Lowe and Ethan Bear having worse numbers there. Kris Russell was 0.03 here for all of you Rusty lovers.
Stats found here.
There’s a reason that future Hall-of-Fame coaches Barry Trotz and Claude Julien didn’t use this player in an impact role and that’s because he isn’t positively impactful at the NHL level.
All of that being said, maybe I’m being too harsh on this player. Nobody is going to replace Sekera this season and the players that Chiarelli is bringing in are depth signings, players who aren’t expected to play above the 3rd pairing on defense or the bottom-6 in the forward group.
I mean look at the Oilers depth chart defensively right now.
| Left Shot | Right Shot |
| Oscar Klefbom | Adam Larsson |
| Darnell Nurse (unsigned) | Matt Benning |
| Andrej Sekera (injured) | Evan Bouchard (teenager) |
| Kris Russell | Ethan Bear (AHL) |
| Kevin Gravel | Ryan Manta (injured) |
| Jakub Jerabek | Joel Persson (load to SHL) |
| Keegan Lowe (AHL) | Filip Berglund (SHL) |
| Ryan Stanton (AHL) | John Marino (NCAA) |
| Caleb Jones (AHL) | Phil Kemp (NCAA) |
There are obviously more players but the top-10 on each side will suffice to prove my point here.
In my humble opinion, the Oilers don’t need someone to replace Sekera or try to replace his skill set. They need to be worried about if Matt Benning or Adam Larsson get hurt for any extended period of time. Especially Larsson because Benning won’t be able to sub for him and Russell won’t be able to either.
Conversely, if Benning goes down, Russell can fill in there.
Players like Brandon Davidson and even more so, Alexei Emelin, could come in and help a lot more than Jerabek.
Is anybody else worried that Darnell Nurse might not be signed for camp hence the reason Chiarelli is adding to the leftorium?
The worst case scenario is that Jerabek fails to impress and is put on waivers and sent down to Bakersfield. Shitty, they’ve got a really good AHL offensive dman now. That sucks…
We have to be fair to the player though, right? Perhaps the situations in Washington and Montreal weren’t great for him. It was Jerabek’s first year in North America and adjustments take time. Perhaps Manny Viveiros can unlock Jerabek’s potential.
As much as what I’ve seen and read about him turns me off of the player, he’s not really a waste. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and I’m rooting for him to succeed within the Oilers system.
Can Jakub Jerabek be to the Oilers what Michal Kempny was to the Capitals?
