Earlier this week advanced analytics guru Rob Vollman released the 2018 update for his world famous Hockey Abstract and I decided to pick up a copy for $13 CDN and take a gander as I do with every release of Mr.Vollman’s.
You can pick up your copy here. Get the bundle by the way, it’s the best value for the price.
Now, you’re probably wondering why I, BLH, would be reading up on the fancies given what you may have read either on the blog here or on Twitter and I’d like to clear that up for you right now.
I’m not anti-fancy stats. There are personalities in the hockey analytics community that I don’t particularly like and get the brunt of my vitriol but the advanced stats I find particularly useful when it comes time to figuring out who is performing well despite the traditional stats looking poor (Lucic last year comes to mind as well as Puljujarvi) and who is performing poorly even though they might be producing on the scoresheet.
Rob Vollman is a guy I have a lot of time for because he can do what so many analytics personalities cannot. Explain things in terms that I can understand and in a manner that doesn’t feel condescending or that he’s talking down to you in any way. I respect that.
Another reason I’m doing this review is that last season Rob gave me a copy of his Hockey Abstract 2017 Update for free and I said I’d write a review and didn’t. That made me feel like a dick.
So, I give you…
The Hockey Abstract 2018 Update Review
Before we jump in, let’s take a brief look at what this year’s update is going to bring us straight from the Horse’s mouth.
Just like the updates in 2015 and 2016, the Hockey Abstract 2018 Update not only serves as an excellent companion to previous editions, and includes updates on previously introduced and sometimes hard-to-find statistical data. For those new to the series, it’s also a great stand-alone guide for team-by-team analysis.
This year’s edition is in full colour, and presents the information in a number of all-new charts and graphs courtesy of RJ Weise. It also includes 25 “stat of the day” popups by venerable long-time hockey statistician Stan Nieradka.This year’s Hockey Abstract 2018 Update contains over 170 pages of fresh analysis, including new player usage charts and analysis for all 31 NHL teams, and updates to most of the statistics and studies that were introduced earlier in the Hockey Abstract series like:
- Goaltending statistics, like quality starts, relief goaltending, saves above expectations (SAX), Goals saved above average (GSAA), and expected goals
- Shot-based metrics, like SAT/Corsi, USAT/Fenwick, and expected goals, in all manpower situations
- Player and team contract value, and aging curves
- Coaching data
- Real-time scoring statistics, like hitting, blocked shots, faceoffs, and drawing penalties
- Setup passes
- NHL Translation factors (NHLe)
- The do-it-all index and the team accolade index
- Disciplined aggression proxy
- Presence and Individual Points Percentage (IPP)
- Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP)
What I love from the Hockey Abstract year-in and year-out is the team-by-team analysis and previews going into the upcoming seasons. When reading them I get the feeling I’m just talking to a buddy (who happens to know a lot about analytics) who’s giving me a fair and balanced opinion on his team.
Here’s a snippet from this year’s Edmonton Oilers section:
It must sting for Oilers fans to see Taylor Hall lead the New Jersey Devils back into the playoffs and win the Hart Trophy in just his second season away from Edmonton.
It must also sting to see the Maple Leafs lock down John Tavares without having to sacrifice Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander, while the Oilers shed solid players like Jordan Eberle and still run out of cap space. Plus, it must be hard to patiently wait for those they got in return, like Adam Larsson and Ryan Strome, to reach expectations. But each of these concerns are small potatoes compared to what the Oilers can achieve with a player like Connor McDavid, which could include a Stanley Cup that would heal all wounds.
The player usage charts that have been made famous by Vollman and his team are always educational and very useful in getting a good view of how your team and its players did the previous year. Check them out here.
This year’s version is in color and while I think that’s a cool feature, I don’t really feel like its potential was met. The colors were simply okay in my opinion and hopefully, in future updates, this feature can be a bit more dynamic.
I will say this about the player usage charts though, I liked that the defensemen and forwards were different shapes this year. Forwards being circles and dmen being diamonds.
Something that I’m missing from previous versions of the update is the Coles notes rundown of each team. Basically, Vollman went over the following categories and gave a checkmark, a star, or nothing to grade them.
- Possession
- The Shootout
- Goaltending
- Penalty Kill
- Power Play
- Scoring Line
- Shutdown Line
- Forward Depth
- Top Pairing
- Second Pairing
- Defensive Depth
- Coaching
- Prospects
I would’ve preferred this in the 2018 Update instead of color but as my old man used to say, beggars can’t be choosers.
After each team profile there’s an analytics-based article tailored to each team. In Edmonton’s case, Blocking shots. Why is Kris Russell the best shot-blocker in the NHL and is that really helping the Oilers?
Other articles include,
- Passing (ANH) – Why Ryan Getzlaf is a better passer than Connor McDavid.
- The Best Goalie (CLB) – Is Phillip Grubauer as good as Sergei Bobrovsky?
- The Best Goalie of All-Time (MTL) – Is it Ken Dryden or Dominik Hasek?
- Individual Power Play (NYR) – Who is the NHL’s best dman/fwd on the PP?
- Contractual Value (TB) – Which teams are managing their cap room the best?
- Coaching (VGK) – Is a coaching staff loaded with a track record of past success better than one without?
The 2018 Update is a good 110 pages fewer this time around because there aren’t as many general articles like:
- Who’s the best clutch scorer?
- Why does Washington always lose in the playoffs?
- How much cap space would a team like the 83/84 Oilers need today?
- Can we predict injuries?
- Why do rebuilds fail?
There are way more than that but I really enjoy those types of articles and am a tad disappointed that the 2018 Update doesn’t have them but there are only so many hours in the day.
Also, I imagine that Vollman will make up for it with his new book coming out in September called, “Stat Shot: Fan’s Guide to Analytics”.
You can pre-order that book here.
If you’re on the fence about advanced analytics or just a little curious, I recommend you pick up the Hockey Abstract Bundle here. It’s severely underpriced, I can almost guarantee that you won’t be disappointed, and you’ll be thoroughly entertained and educated.
All-in-all, I might prefer last year’s format to this year’s but that doesn’t take away from the quality of this year’s Update one iota. It’s a must buy going into the 2018/19 NHL season for any fan!
