Coming from an Edmonton Oilers point of view, BLH provides you with excerpts from the latest NHL news, rumors, and speculation from all of the internet’s best sites including Spector’s Hockey, The Fourth Period, NHL Trade Talk, The Hockey Writers, Sportsnet, The Athletic, TSN and more!
From Oilers Now
Duncan Keith to the Edmonton Oilers was still the topic of the day on Oilers Now Monday morning. Here are a few quotes from host Bob Stauffer regarding the future HOF defenseman,
- “The reality is there’s enough interest in the player right now that logic dictates that the team that the team that ultimately does get Keith if he gets moves may not be moving substantial money to Chicago.”
- “I could foresee Caleb Jones and a prospect, a prospect surely not named (Evan) Bouchard or (Philip) Broberg, a prospect surely not named (Dylan) Holloway or (Ryan) McLeod, though I’m sure (Hawks GM) Stan Bowman would ask for one of those players, and probably not named (Dmitry) Samorukov or (Raphael) Lavoie.”
- “He’s probably the closest player maybe since Chris Chelios in terms of style of defenceman. Chelios was a good offensive defenceman that played with a little bit of an edge, got into guys heads once in a while on the ice, and Duncan Keith kind of plays that way, and Duncan Keith is in terrific shape, and has logged huge minutes, and has been a leader, and is going to be a Hall of Fame player.”
- “If he gets moved, he’s probably going to be successful wherever he goes because he’s not to play as much. So instead of the Oilers going out and grabbing a guy and thrusting him into an accelerated role, this is a scenario where a player would be decelerated in his minutes played.”
BLH’s Thoughts: Stauffer also said that Gerry Johansson wouldn’t have agreed to take Keith on for no cut of his current deal if the belief was that retirement was on the horizon for the dman. Simply put, Keith wants to play past this current deal into his 40s and I haven’t heard one legitimate person in the hockey world say that’s an impossibility.
We should talk about that part about Edmonton using Caleb Jones AND a prospect for Keith… That’s a tad pricey UNLESS it’s Jones going to the Hawks and the prospect going to another team to take on some of Keith’s salary… Food for thought.
From The Cult of Hockey
If price for Duncan Keith is Caleb Jones and a top prospect, Oilers need to shut down trade talks pronto
- Caleb Jones and maybe — as Stauffer didn’t rule out this notion — Samorukov or Lavoie for Keith? With Chicago not retaining much of Keith’s $5.5 million salary for two years? That’s not a deal that Oilers GM Ken Holland should walk away from.
- If you don’t have access to analytics that dig deeply into the individual actions of NHL players, you’re just as likely to be misled by your analysis as enlightened by it…
- The best we can do is make a guess based on what we know of the player and the best available stats, but that’s not a process that should fill any reasonable person with utter certainty when it comes to rating and ranking players. When I see this kind of certainty in Oilers observers about Keith, I don’t take it as a sign of wisdom or intelligence, but of over-confidence and hubris.
- I’m also worried about the Oilers over-paying for Keith. Some key indicators, such as points scoring rate, already indicate he’s dropped off in his level of play. His numbers don’t look like at Chelios at 37, but like Chelios at 41. Edmonton should not be paying anywhere close to a first-pairing cap hit for the player, and the acquisition cost for the player should reflect that.
BLH’s Thoughts: So, a couple of things. If you think the Oilers are bringing Keith in to be the Norris Trophy version of himself, you’re obviously oblivous to how Ken Holland does business. He knows what he’s getting in Keith and he’s not an ageist either. I do agree with Staples that the Oilers have to avoid getting Keith and his full ticket or overpaying for him, but I also am under the impression that Chicago doesn’t want to trade the defenseman. So they’ll be making the best deal they can for themselves.
The second and third points above are bang on. I don’t have access to private analytics nor have I watched the Blackhawks play recently and therefor I’m championing for this trade based on Keith’s intangibles. I can look at the public numbers and try to dig around for stats to support my position, but those numbers would most likely be outweighed by the negatives.
Investing in Duncan Keith would mean more to the Oilers than just a 2nd pairing defenseman. He’d be a mentor and a teacher to everyone on the team. If you wanna mock him for that, you’re probably somebody who’s never been part of a team and don’t understand the value that an older peer brings to the room. All I know is that Ken Holland made it a habit to grab older veterans who everybody thought were over the hill and won with them and the captain of the Edmonton Oilers knows that too…
- The Oilers and Adam Larsson’s camp continue to talk. The talks have been positive, and both seem to be in the same ballpark when it comes to term and AAV.
- Holland will talk with Oscar Klefbom later this week or early next week to see how he is doing. I don’t see a scenario where Edmonton protects him in the expansion draft. I sense it is 90% likely he doesn’t play again. There is always a chance he can, but it seems low at this point.
- Edmonton has until June 26th to decide if they will qualify Jujhar Khaira or let him become a free agent. I think they’d like to re-sign him, but more at $1m instead of the $1.3m he needs to be qualified at.
- If Jamie Oleksiak makes it to free agency, I’d take a long look at him. He shoots left, but he can play the right side.
- If Edmonton is going to become a legit contender it will be when more of their already-drafted players emerge and can help, or Holland makes some impactful trades. He isn’t doing his job if he isn’t talking to Bowman about Keith. It doesn’t mean he should just pay any price and throw caution to the wind, but I’m a big believer in acquiring players with high-skill pedigree. Even if they are a bit older.
- I don’t believe Edmonton is desperate to land Keith at any cost.
- I’m told Keith wants to be on a competitive team and sees Edmonton as a team that is improving.
BLH’s Thoughts: Bob Stauffer seems pretty staunch in thinking that Dallas has a backdoor deal with Oleksiak done already that’ll be announced after the expansion draft, so perhaps he’s not a player that should be in consideration for the Oilers right now. If he makes it to free agency though, would he get a similar deal to that of Danny Dekeyser from Holland (6yrs @$5M AAV)? Dekeyser shares the same agent as Oleksiak, Wade Arnott.
At 38yrs old, what kind of Duncan Keith do you think the Oilers would get if he isn’t in charge of the PP or playing 23 minutes a night next year? Do you think a better club and less of a workload would stunt that sharp statistical decline or ramp it up?
Normally on my birthday I’d take the day off, but we’re just coming to the end of our own little Covid lockdown and there’s no real point it going out with the family when there aren’t that many places to go. Plus it’s f*cking roasting out there… Summers in Taipei mean waking up to 35 degree mornings and I’ve made it a habit over the years to stay indoors until the evenings and even then if we go out, I’m coming home with a sweat-soaked t-shirt.
So, instead, I decided to grind away and give you what you’ve come to expect everyday.
Have a good one!
BLH
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