Zack Kassian Is More Important to the Edmonton Oilers Than Some May Think

Now that we’re well into the bye week for the Edmonton Oilers, there’s been a slight shift in the discussions online from where the team is in the standings and how well they’re playing at the moment (6-3-1 in their last ten games) to how much Zack Kassian is going to get in his next contract. I think we can thank Mark Spector for this…

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/1218251253643268096

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/1218657354666762241

Interestingly enough, this is near exactly what I was told right before Christmas. And they say I make everything up…

Anyways, I’ve been reading tweets like the following for a while now and it’s almost insulting that “supporters” of the Oilers would publicly say these sorts of things. That’s the VM (vocal minority) for ya though…

GordonRTP‏ @RideThePine89

If the Oilers pay more than $2M for Kassian, I’ll be genuinely pissed. If they were smart, they’d do what they should have done with Chiasson.

OilersBlues‏@OilersBlues

Dont pay Kassian anything more Than 2M.

Ryan Batty‏@ryan_batty

Three years ago Kassian‘s contract was 2.6% of the upper limit. I’d start in the same place today, that’s $2.2M per, and negotiate on length, adjusting the dollars accordingly. My upper limit on cap hit would be $2.5M, the term would be three years max.

Oilers Nerd Alert‏ @OilersNerdAlert

Per Jones’ contract, hoping the Oilers are telling Kassian “Here’s 2x$2m, that’s solid value because if you go to market, everyone knows your numbers are McDavid and you’ll get Marooned”.

speeds‏@hockeysymposium

In terms of expected numbers, I would likely be trading Kassian using 2 years, 2M AAV as sort of my outer limit on an extension instead of a trade. But that would also depend on his trade value

I get it, everybody wants the team to shave as much off of every contract extension as possible in order to fit Taylor Hall (-5 against Edmonton in his last game by the way) back into the lineup and that’s all find and dandy, unrealistic though.

But what I’m reading here is that these gentlemen don’t believe that Zack Kassian is worth keeping if he won’t take a 500k raise… NAY! Sorry, I’ve got that wrong… They’re saying that Kassian can walk if he won’t take a 50k raise! Fifty thousand is their line in the sand… You’ve got to be kidding me. Get f*cked is what I say to that. What a crock of sh*t. It’s okay for these players to make a little extra than you’d pay them in your simulation hockey league you know…

Now the obvious clap back is, “Look at Pat Maroon and what happened to him!” or “Anybody could play on McDavid’s wing and thrive.”

Both statements have flaws.

Josh Archibald has benefited really well alongside Connor in 44’s absence, but what he’s doing is the true definition of heater. An 80% GF% with 97 and a 20% one without?… #Heater. He doesn’t have the skill to stick there for 82 games straight and produce whereas Kassian does. Benoit Pouliot was a pretty good player, he didn’t get better with McDavid.

Sure, both Maroon and Kass played (play) significant roles on the wing of Connor McDavid and (have) thrived where more skilled players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Jesse Puljujarvi were given brief opportunities with the 97 and failed to stick.

I think it’s safe to say that the Oilers captain thrives with some muscle that can play the game a bit on his wing.

So, here’s the difference between Kassian and Maroon, Zack can skate much much better. He thinks the game better, he’s faster, he’s got better hands and is a better passer, he’s learned when and when not to take a fight and the same could be said for the amount of bone-rattling hits he throws.

I think Pat had some of those assets as well to a lesser degree but was a stronger player and could hold the puck up a bit better than Kassian. In terms of the new power forward model, Kassian is that guy whereas Maroon is still the older model. I’d add that Zack, since joining the Oilers, has been very durable and my belief is that he won’t see a deterioration in skill as early as some are predicting and even if he does, he’ll still bring value down the lineup in a variety of roles.

Just a couple more things to compare the two players. I can’t recall, did Maroon spend any time on the PK when he was in Edmonton and how much of his scoring was done at 5×5? This season all but one of Kassian’s points have been at 5×5. That’s value folks. Prior to this year, he was part of Edmonton’s PK, but I will admit the Oilers haven’t had a good PK for a while before this season and Kassian isn’t on the kill anymore. Not to say that he was the reason it was bad, because he wasn’t. I’m just stating that he had the trust of his coaches to play there. He’s spent some time on Edmonton’s powerplay this season too.

Funny, after Maroon’s disastrous free-agent experience, he landed himself a deal with his hometown team and won a Stanley Cup. He scored a pretty important goal I recall and now he’s with another Stanley Cup contender. Why would successful GMs look at that guy and see value if he was only useful when he dropped the gloves? They don’t because, during the playoffs, regular season narratives go out the window.

The fact of the matter is, if Kassian goes to market, he’s getting $3.5M to $4.5M. No bones about it. Some will say, let him go, but I was under the impression that you get good players and then you keep them. What part about Kassian’s game says the Edmonton Oilers are a worse team with him in the lineup?

If the Oilers can get him for 3-5 years at $3M-$3.5M and then the salary cap raises in a season or two, THAT’S a bargain contract! Even if he regresses and is only a 30pt player by the second year of it.

The former Windsor Spitfire is on pace for over 50pts and is only making a shade under $2M this year. That’s one of the best deals in the entire league right now and nobody is talking about it.

NUMBERS TIME!!!

I want to show you one more thing here using some metrics from Natural Stat Trick.

Connor McDavid’s GF% with Kassian is 55.22%, his GF% away from him is 50%, and Kassian’s GF% away Connor is 55.56%.

McDavid’s xGF% with Kassian is 49.86%, his xGF% away from him is 47.38%, and Kassian’s xGF% away from Connor is 51.48%.

Fact: Kassian makes McDavid a better player. No other forward that’s played 50 minutes plus with the Oilers captain has a better goal share this year. (source)

Now, if that’s not enough to make you pause and think about the kind of raise Edmonton’s #44 is going to get and be fine with the rumored amount, let’s take a gander to see if he makes the rest of his teammates better too.

I want to use the forwards that Kass has played 50 minutes or more with 5×5 since that seems to be an acceptable variable online but that’s only been Edmonton’s best players this year, so I think we should take the time frame back a bit and use last season’s results as well. He’ll get dinged a bit here though because predictably (and he knows it, hence the relaxed ask on the new deal) his numbers didn’t really start to shoot up until he was put on 97’s wing near the end of January.

(source)

Yes. In only two cases out of ten was the player better away from Kassian at 5×5 since the start of the 2018/19 season… One was the best player in the league and the other was… Milan Lucic? Alrighty then… They do say hockey is chaos though…

I believe there are some media folk out there that are comparing Kass’ rumored deal to that of Vancouver Canucks oft-injured FA signing Michael Ferland. He signed his deal at 27 years old which will be two years younger than Mr. Kassian but I’ll be shocked if he lives up to it. He’s already having problems with his health and thankfully, that’s something that Kassian hasn’t run into.

In the end, if he’s making $3M or $3.75M or even $4M per year on his next deal, he’ll still be an Oiler because he wants to be one (which is more outstanding given he wanted out badly last year) and keeping him around will please Lord Connor who took a pay cut so that others on his team could make a bit more.

If Zack Kassian is that rare breed of hockey player who finds his way in the latter part of his 20s (and I do believe that) and Edmonton benefits from it, I say, good! It’s about damned time the Oilers got some luck like that and as Oilers fans, let’s enjoy the fact that we have one of the finest humans in the league on our team instead of treating him like a database entry in some fictitious fantasy hockey team.

If there’s any worry that fans should be having, it’s the contract Darnell Nurse is eyeing up…